February 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Roger J Smith]

CET averages and extremes for February

 

12.4 ... warmest Feb day (mean temp) 4th Feb 2004

10.0 ... lowest daily extreme max (16th Feb 1928)

 7.9 ... warmest month of Feb 1779
 7.5 ... second warmest month of Feb 1869
 7.3 ... tied third warmest month of Feb 1990 and 1998

 7.2 ... fifth warmest month of Feb 1794

 7.0 ... 2002

 6.7 ... 1997, 2019

 6.5 ... 1995

 6.4 ... 2011

 6.3 ... 2000

 6.2 ... 2014
 6.1 ... 2017

 5.9 ... 1989
 5.8 ... 2007

 5.4 ... 1992, 2004, 2008

 5.3 ... 1999

 5.0 ... warmest 30-year average (4.96) 1988-2017

 4.9 ... 1988, 2016 ... mean for 1990-2019

 4.8 ... 1982 and mean for 1991-2019, 2001-2019
 4.6 ... 1993
 4.4 ... 2001 and mean for 1981-2010

 4.3 ... 2005

 4.2 ... mean for 1971-2000
 4.1 ... 2009

 4.0 ... mean for 1801-1900 and 1901-2000 and 2015

 3.9 ... mean for 1659-2019 (all 361 years) -- 3.88 -- and 2003
 3.8 ... mean for 1961-1990 and 1701-1800 and 2012

 3.7 ... 2006

 3.6 ... 1987

 3.3 ... 1984

 3.2 ... 1994, 2013

 3.0 ... 1981

 2.9 ... mean for 1659-1700 and for 2018

 2.8 ... 2010

 2.5 ... coldest 30-year mean (1670 to 1699) ((2.55 rounded down (2.547)) and 1996

 2.1 ... 1985

 1.7 ... 1983

 1.5 ... 1991

-1.1 ... fifth coldest month of Feb, coldest in recent years 1986
-1.6 ... fourth coldest month of Feb 1740
-1.7 ... third coldest month of Feb 1855
-1.8 ... second coldest month of Feb 1895
-1.9 ... coldest month of Feb 1947

-2.4 ... highest daily extreme min (29th 1904)
-2.8 ... highest daily extreme min, not leap year day (27th, 1929)

-3.2 ... running CET by 20th 1855 (!!)

-4.3 ... running CET mid-month 1895 (!!)

-6.3 ... coldest week 6-12 Feb 1895

-8.8 ... coldest Feb day (mean temp) 9th Feb 1816

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Enter your forecast in this thread before the end of the day Friday 31st January,

or with increasing time penalties before the end of the day Monday 3rd February. Good luck!

______________________________________________________________________________________

 

EWP Precip contest

 

Predict the EWP for February (in mm). Same deadlines as above --

 

Wettest ... ... ... ...158.6 mm (1833)

__ recent ... ... ... 143.2 mm (1990)

1980-2019 avg ... 71.5 mm

1981-2010 avg ... 66.5 mm

all data 1766-2019 avg 65.1 mm

__ recent ... ... ... 13.8 mm (1993)

Driest ... ... ... ... .. 3.6 mm (1891)

____________________________________________________________

2019 was 54.2 mm, 2018 was 52.8 mm, 2017 was 72.0 mm and 2016 was 80.0 mm. 

2015 was 59.3 mm, 2014 was 136.7 mm, 2013 was 48.3 mm and 2012 was 32.1 mm.

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Combine your predictions and edit up to deadline as you wish. Good luck !!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

7c and 51mm

 

BFTP

[Lettucing Gutted]

Rest in pieces 'winter' 2019/2020!  10C    Last sub -1C, last sub 0C and last sub 1C February in 1986.  Last sub 2C February in 1991.  Last sub 3C and last sub 3.5C February in 2018.  Out with a mild whimper...

Also very wet with 500mm of Atlantic garbage

[DogToffee]

5.1*C, 66.6mm.

[Timmytour]

5.5C and 93mm

[LetItSnow]

3.8 and 64.6mm

[CheesepuffScott]

4.1°C and 61.5mm

Edited January 20, 2020 by CheesepuffScott

[B87]

6.6c and 35mm

[Wilxy]

5.5°C and 74.1mm

[igloo]

mild wet and windy first half.second half more settled and colder my guess 6.2c with 100mm rainfall 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

6.2 C and 112.8 mm please

[emmett garland]

5.7 and 88mm please

[Polar Gael]

6.0°C and 54.5mm for me please. 

[pegg24]

6.4c 80mm please 

[JeffC]

3.2 C with 65 mm ppn please.

Temp wise I think warmer first 1-2 weeks cooling off thereafter

[Weather26]

6.0C And 92mm please

[Twilight]

4.5c

60mm thanks

Edited January 21, 2020 by Twilight
We would have needed a ark if that came off

[Cymro]

6.4 and 72mm

[SteveB]

5.7c and 68mm please

[stewfox]

4.8c 67mm  (colder 2nd half of month)

[Carl46Wrexham]

5.8c

Edited January 22, 2020 by Carl46Wrexham

[NeilN]

An ambitious (and probably won't be anywhere near coming off) 3.2c and 68mm

[BlueHedgehog074]

Will go for 6.2*C and 70mm rain/snowfall. Cheers.

Just personally can’t see it being a chilly month. Though love to be wrong. 

[LetItSnow]

I’d like to update my estimates to 4.7 and 94.4mm, please.

[lottiekent]

4.4c and 62mm, thanks