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February 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

CET averages and extremes for February

 

12.4 ... warmest Feb day (mean temp) 4th Feb 2004

10.0 ... lowest daily extreme max (16th Feb 1928)

 7.9 ... warmest month of Feb 1779
 7.5 ... second warmest month of Feb 1869
 7.3 ... tied third warmest month of Feb 1990 and 1998

 7.2 ... fifth warmest month of Feb 1794

 7.0 ... 2002

 6.7 ... 1997, 2019

 6.5 ... 1995

 6.4 ... 2011

 6.3 ... 2000

 6.2 ... 2014
 6.1 ... 2017

 5.9 ... 1989
 5.8 ... 2007

 5.4 ... 1992, 2004, 2008

 5.3 ... 1999

 5.0 ... warmest 30-year average (4.96) 1988-2017

 4.9 ... 1988, 2016 ... mean for 1990-2019

 4.8 ... 1982 and mean for 1991-2019, 2001-2019
 4.6 ... 1993
 4.4 ... 2001 and mean for 1981-2010

 4.3 ... 2005

 4.2 ... mean for 1971-2000
 4.1 ... 2009

 4.0 ... mean for 1801-1900 and 1901-2000 and 2015

 3.9 ... mean for 1659-2019 (all 361 years) -- 3.88 -- and 2003
 3.8 ... mean for 1961-1990 and 1701-1800 and 2012

 3.7 ... 2006

 3.6 ... 1987

 3.3 ... 1984

 3.2 ... 1994, 2013

 3.0 ... 1981

 2.9 ... mean for 1659-1700 and for 2018

 2.8 ... 2010

 2.5 ... coldest 30-year mean (1670 to 1699) ((2.55 rounded down (2.547)) and 1996

 2.1 ... 1985

 1.7 ... 1983

 1.5 ... 1991

-1.1 ... fifth coldest month of Feb, coldest in recent years 1986
-1.6 ... fourth coldest month of Feb 1740
-1.7 ... third coldest month of Feb 1855
-1.8 ... second coldest month of Feb 1895
-1.9 ... coldest month of Feb 1947

-2.4 ... highest daily extreme min (29th 1904)
-2.8 ... highest daily extreme min, not leap year day (27th, 1929)

-3.2 ... running CET by 20th 1855 (!!)

-4.3 ... running CET mid-month 1895 (!!)

-6.3 ... coldest week 6-12 Feb 1895

-8.8 ... coldest Feb day (mean temp) 9th Feb 1816

_____________________________________________________________________________________

Enter your forecast in this thread before the end of the day Friday 31st January,

or with increasing time penalties before the end of the day Monday 3rd February. Good luck!

______________________________________________________________________________________

 

EWP Precip contest

 

Predict the EWP for February (in mm). Same deadlines as above --

 

Wettest ... ... ... ...158.6 mm (1833)

__ recent ... ... ... 143.2 mm (1990)


1980-2019 avg ... 71.5 mm

1981-2010 avg ... 66.5 mm

all data 1766-2019 avg 65.1 mm

__ recent ... ... ... 13.8 mm (1993)

Driest ... ... ... ... .. 3.6 mm (1891)

____________________________________________________________

2019 was 54.2 mm, 2018 was 52.8 mm, 2017 was 72.0 mm and 2016 was 80.0 mm. 

2015 was 59.3 mm, 2014 was 136.7 mm, 2013 was 48.3 mm and 2012 was 32.1 mm.

=======================================================================

Combine your predictions and edit up to deadline as you wish. Good luck !!

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Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters, cold springs, cold summers and cold autumns
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom

Rest in pieces 'winter' 2019/2020!  10C  :oldsad:  Last sub -1C, last sub 0C and last sub 1C February in 1986.  Last sub 2C February in 1991.  Last sub 3C and last sub 3.5C February in 2018.  Out with a mild whimper...

Also very wet with 500mm of Atlantic garbage

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Posted
  • Location: Musselburgh, East Lothian; 20m elevation.
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, preferably thunderstorms, cold and bad weather.
  • Location: Musselburgh, East Lothian; 20m elevation.

5.1*C, 66.6mm.

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Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl

4.1°C and 61.5mm

Edited by CheesepuffScott
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Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl

mild wet and windy first half.second half more settled and colder my guess 6.2c with 100mm rainfall 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

6.2 C and 112.8 mm please

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Posted
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: bright & frosty/snowy; summer: hot and sunny.
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland

6.0°C and 54.5mm for me please. 

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Posted
  • Location: Corby 130 meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Corby 130 meters above sea level

6.4c 80mm please 

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

3.2 C with 65 mm ppn please.

Temp wise I think warmer first 1-2 weeks cooling off thereafter

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Posted
  • Location: cannock,staffs
  • Weather Preferences: Cold sunny day
  • Location: cannock,staffs

4.5c

60mm thanks

Edited by Twilight
We would have needed a ark if that came off
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Posted
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs

6.4 and 72mm

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

5.7c and 68mm please

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

4.8c 67mm  (colder 2nd half of month)

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Posted
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl


5.8c

Edited by Carl46Wrexham
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

Will go for 6.2*C and 70mm rain/snowfall. Cheers.

Just personally can’t see it being a chilly month. Though love to be wrong. 

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Posted
  • Location: Islington, C. London.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and mixed summers.
  • Location: Islington, C. London.

I’d like to update my estimates to 4.7 and 94.4mm, please.

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