Global Surface Air & Sea Temperatures: Current Conditions and Future Prospects

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Weekly SST indices

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figure from Met Office research news http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/news/2015/global-average-temperature-2015 â€¦

 

 

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  Google Map for GHCN V4

 

 

I have a series of Google Maps tools, which you can read about on the Gallery page. The latest (till now) is here, on adjustments. In this post, I have made one in similar style for GHCN V4 Beta.

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Update of comparison of historic climate sims with observed global temps - including current 2015 (Jan-Sep) estimate

 

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

According to the JMA, October 2015 (+0.53C) is a new record, beating the record set last year by whopping +0.19C. This makes is just the second month on record, and second month in row, with an anomaly of at least +0.5C above the 81-10 average. This is now also the largest anomaly for any month on record.

 

 

Top 5

 

1st. 2015 (+0.53°C),

2nd. 2014 (+0.34°C),

3rd. 2003 (+0.24°C),

4th. 2006 (+0.23°C),

5th. 2012 (+0.22°C)

 

 

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp/oct_wld.html

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  GISS October 1.04°C, record month anomaly.

 

GISS is out, a bit late. But it is at or above expectations. At 1.04°C, up by 0.24°C from September 0.8°C. That is well clear of the previous highest, 0.97°C in Jan 2007, which was itself something of an outlier.

 

Edited November 17, 2015 by knocker

[knocker]

Remember the forecast of a temporary global cooling which made headlines around the world in 2008? We didn’t think it was reliable and offered a bet. The forecast period is now over: we were right, the forecast was not skilful.

 

Back around 2007/8, two high-profile papers claimed to produce, for the first time, skilful predictions of decadal climate change, based on new techniques of ocean state initialization in climate models. Both papers made forecasts of the future evolution of global mean and regional temperatures. The first paper, Smith et al. (2007), predicted “that internal variability will partially offset the anthropogenic global warming signal for the next few years. However, climate will continue to warm, with at least half of the years after 2009 predicted to exceed the warmest year currently on record.†The second, Keenlyside et al., (2008), forecast in contrast that “global surface temperature may not increase over the next decade, as natural climate variations in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific temporarily offset the projected anthropogenic warming.â€

 

This month marks the end of the forecast period for Keenlyside et al and so their forecasts can now be cleanly compared to what actually happened. This is particularly interesting to RealClimate, since we offered a bet to the authors on whether the results would be accurate based on our assessment of their methodology. They ignored our offer but now the time period of the bet has passed, it’s worth checking how it would have gone.

 

- See more at: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2015/11/and-the-winner-is/#sthash.sGSMWan4.dpuf

Edited November 17, 2015 by knocker

[BornFromTheVoid]

Latest SOTC report from NOAA https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201510

 

October 2015 was warmest on record for the globe and greatest above-average departure from average for any month

 

The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for October 2015 was the highest for October in the 136-year period of record, at 0.98°C (1.76°F) above the 20th century average of 14.0°C (57.1°F). This marked the sixth consecutive month a monthly global temperature record has been broken and was also the greatest departure from average for any month in the 1630 months of recordkeeping, surpassing the previous record high departure set just last month by 0.13°F (0.07°C). The October temperature is currently increasing at an average rate of 0.06°C (0.11°F) per decade.

 

Separately, the October average temperature across global land surfaces was 1.33°C (2.39°F) above the 20th century average, the highest for October on record. This surpasses the previous record set in October 2011 by 0.17°C (0.31°F). This margin is larger than the uncertainty associated with the dataset. Large regions of Earth's land surfaces were much warmer than average, according to the Land & Ocean Temperature Percentiles map above. Record warmth was observed across the entire southern half of Australia, part of southern and southeastern Asia, much of central and southern Africa, most of Central America and northern South America, and parts of western North America. Regionally, Oceania and the African continent were both record warm. Argentina, part of northeastern Canada, scattered regions of western and central Russia, and central Japan were cooler or much cooler than average....

 

...With strong El Niño conditions in place, the October global sea surface temperature was 0.85°C (1.53°F) above the 20th century average of 15.9°C (60.6°F), the highest departure for October on record. This surpasses the previous record set in 2014 by 0.15°C (0.27°F). This margin is larger than the uncertainty associated with the dataset. The October temperature was also the highest departure from average for any month since recordkeeping began in 1880, surpassing the previous record set last month by 0.04°C (0.07°F)...

 

...The first 10 months of 2015 comprised the warmest such period on record across the world's land and ocean surfaces, at 0.86°C (1.55°F) above the 20th century average, surpassing the previous record of 2014 by 0.12°C (0.22°F). This margin is larger than the uncertainty associated with the dataset. To date, eight months this year have been record warm for their respective months. January was the second warmest January on record and April third warmest.

[Helzmc]

Not what a coldie wants to hear

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Some of you will be aware that Lamar Smith, Chairman of the Committee of Space, Science and Technology has been carrying out a scurrilous witch-hunt against scientists from NOAA. Now a congresswoman, Eddie Bernice Johnson, has had the courage to stand up to him and his smear tactics. Her letter is worth a read.

 

http://democrats.science.house.gov/sites/democrats.science.house.gov/files/Ranking%20Member%20Johnson%20Second%20Letter%20to%20Chairman%20Smith%20on%20NOAA%20Subpoena.pdf

Edited November 20, 2015 by knocker

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A blog post by Victor Venema connected to the above.

 

Sad that for Lamar Smith "hiatus" has far-reaching policy implications

http://variable-variability.blogspot.co.uk/2015/11/congressman-lamar-smith-texas-tx-21.html

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A blog post by Isaac Held

 

Disequilibrium and the AMOC

 

http://www.gfdl.noaa...m-and-the-amoc/

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Exactly the same, but completely different: why we have so many different ways of looking at sea surface temperature

 

As Emily has painstakingly documented at the beginning of every month for what seems like an eternity, we have an El Niño event on our hands. And if you’ve read her posts religiously (which of course you have, because they are awesome), you already know that one way Emily shows the strength of El Niño is via the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in a region of the Pacific Ocean called the Niño3.4 region.

 

You may also have noticed that when we talk about how one event compares to another, we usually say something like, “Depending on what dataset you use….†Up until now, though we’ve haven’t talked much about how exactly we determine which sea surface temperature dataset to use to determine El Niño’s strength.

 

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/exactly-same-completely-different-why-we-have-so-many-different-ways

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Whoa..Nick S is up and running

 

  Using NOMADS data - movies

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2015 likely to be the warmest on record

 

This year’s global average surface temperature is likely to be the warmest on record according to data from the Met Office, and is expected to continue the trend showing 15 of the top 16 warmest years have happened since 2001.

 

These findings concur with the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) findings also announced today.

 

http://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2015/11/25/2015-likely-to-be-the-warmest-on-record/

 

And

 

  GWPF Temperature Adjustments inquiry - no news. Edited November 25, 2015 by knocker

[knocker]

Canada warming at twice the global rate, scientists tell premiers conference

 

Canada's rate of warming is about twice the global rate, according to a climate change briefing presented to the country's premiers on Monday.

 

The presentation, available on Environment Canada's website, summarizes the key science behind climate change.

 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/first-ministers-climate-change-scientist-1.3331884

Edited November 25, 2015 by knocker

[stewfox]

Canada warming at twice the global rate, scientists tell premiers conference

 

Canada's rate of warming is about twice the global rate, according to a climate change briefing presented to the country's premiers on Monday.

 

The presentation, available on Environment Canada's website, summarizes the key science behind climate change.

 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/first-ministers-climate-change-scientist-1.3331884

 

How much Arctic tundra would that free up for farming ? Guess we would see a longer growing season ?

[Methuselah]

How much Arctic tundra would that free up for farming ? Guess we would see a longer growing season ?

Eh? Maybe they should grow maize - like what Comrade Lysenko suggested? Then again - maybe not!

[stewfox]

Eh? Maybe they should grow maize - like what Comrade Lysenko suggested? Then again - maybe not!

 

Must be good news anyway.

 

 

Global warming could make Canada flourish: Rising temperatures may bring back ancient forests to icy northern borders

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2207876/Global-warming-make-Canada-flourish-Rising-temperatures-bring-ancient-forests-icy-northern-borders.html#ixzz3sXiWSvuw 

Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

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Eli's blog might be of some interest this morning.

 

UAH TLT Series Not Trustworth

 

http://rabett.blogspot.co.uk/2015/12/uah-tlt-series-not-trustworthy.html

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NCEP/NCAR November, cooler than Oct, but warmer than any earlier month.

 

The Moyhu NCEP/NCAR index for November was 0.513°C, down from October's 0.567°C, but easily ahead (by about 0.1°C) of any other month in the record.

The warmth first shown in the October index corresponded to the rise later shown in GISS, and I would expect similar behaviour here. On the GISS anomaly base, the November NCEP index was 1.04°C.

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Update of the Hausfather-Cowtan post comparing recent ERSSTv4 trends with buoys, OISST and ARGO. Find improvements. http://skepticalscience.com/buoy_only_sea_surface_temperature.html …

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Big UAH adjustment.

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TempLS November, down .04°C from October, but very warm.