COVID-19 Pandemic

[kold weather]

8 minutes ago, Saint coolio said:

Ray of hope - zero new cases today in the original Italian red zone. Containment works?

probably Italy levels this out in the next 4-6 weeks. just in time for the UK to re-infect them all from our herd.

i have a problem with the UK strategy which i think is extraordinarily high risk given uncertainty on the parameters of the pathogen; and seems so out of sync with other countries. Are we really thinking we’re right and they’re all wrong?

i have a REALLY big problem with the strategy without a dramatic increase in testing to validate the assumptions being used in the epidemiology.

I think the problem is the experts said Italy may well level it out, but then there is a huge chance of a second wave (and in the Spanish Flu, that proved far more deadly) and then they will have to go back into lockdown again, and that carries on until there is either herd immunity, or a vaccine. How many times can you expect to be able to put the whole population on lock down. Instead it maybe better to get the whole thing down in one wave over the space of 2-3 months, rather than have protracted flare ups and run the risk of the virus subtly mutating and beocming more dangferous for those who haven't yet been exposed.

Of course, if no 2nd wave comes, then we are probably going to be looking VERY bad, and Johnson will be gone come next election. High stakes for sure!

 

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Coronavirus: Italy says 1,000 have died but lockdown can work

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51852320

The key message here is lockdowns do work it's all about getting the timing right.

Quite a big difference between a small town and an entire country though, one of them is quite easy to lock down, the other...well even China struggled with it, and they have a dictatorial state with huge power.

I suppose we will see soon enough.

[daz_4]

10 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I suppose the idea is, you can't stop it no matter what. Even if you do what China did is, the virus will just rebound again and again on your population, and there is definitely some merit to that idea. China probably has enough resources to do that, but not many can. It reminds me of the Soviet Union in WW2 in how they just seemed to have endless battalions ready to deploy against Germany. However other countries need to be more careful with their resources.

I suppose ultimately it boils down to whether you think you can stop it, or whether you think there is no coming back from it once it is really embedded i all countries nearby and your own.

The challenge for European countries is orders of magnitude more than even South Korea and China dealt with, because it is now coming from pretty much every different direction and has seeded i this country and others from numerous possible places.

For me it's really about stopping the potential collapse of healthcare system. We can't just let it run its course. That's playing russian roulette with lives of healthcare workers.

[kold weather]

Comparison between Germany and Italy:

As you can see, we fit probably 6-7 days behind Germany at the moment.

So in theory, Germany should be up around 15,000 cases around the 20th March. UK using a similar curve, would be around 3,000 roughly.

[The PIT]

49 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Why?

Read what Nick posted.

[bobbarley]

9 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I think the problem is the experts said Italy may well level it out, but then there is a huge chance of a second wave (and in the Spanish Flu, that proved far more deadly) and then they will have to go back into lockdown again, and that carries on until there is either herd immunity, or a vaccine. How many times can you expect to be able to put the whole population on lock down. Instead it maybe better to get the whole thing down in one wave over the space of 2-3 months, rather than have protracted flare ups and run the risk of the virus subtly mutating and beocming more dangferous for those who haven't yet been exposed.

Of course, if no 2nd wave comes, then we are probably going to be looking VERY bad, and Johnson will be gone come next election. High stakes for sure!

 

He doesn’t need to worry, Britain’s strategy will guarantee a second wave for everyone else

[Ryukai]

All the areas that are now into double digits

Kensington and Chelsea: 19    Hertfordshire: 18     Oxfordshire: 17    Hampshire: 15     Devon: 13     Surrey: 13     Westminster: 12     Camden: 11     Southwark: 11

 

Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-track-coronavirus-cases

 

[Guest]

12 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I think the problem is the experts said Italy may well level it out, but then there is a huge chance of a second wave (and in the Spanish Flu, that proved far more deadly) and then they will have to go back into lockdown again, and that carries on until there is either herd immunity, or a vaccine. How many times can you expect to be able to put the whole population on lock down. Instead it maybe better to get the whole thing down in one wave over the space of 2-3 months, rather than have protracted flare ups and run the risk of the virus subtly mutating and beocming more dangferous for those who haven't yet been exposed.

Of course, if no 2nd wave comes, then we are probably going to be looking VERY bad, and Johnson will be gone come next election. High stakes for sure!

 

I would've thought a second wave is more likely based on the fact Covid-19 is an RNA virus which is more susceptible to mutations. 

[Summer Sun]

The first human trial for a Coronavirus vaccine could happen in a few weeks in the USA with public use 12 to 18 months away

Human trials for a coronavirus vaccine could begin 'within a few weeks,' top US health official says

WWW.CNBC.COM

---

"I would hope within a few weeks we may be able to make an announcement to you all that we've given the first shot to the first person," Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and...

 

[Relativistic]

2 minutes ago, Saint coolio said:

Really?

Each secondary schoolchild mixing with dozens of schoolmates across multiple different subject classes, tutors, breaks etc.

even if they were allowed to gather in groups of 3-4 for childcare, e-learning etc, it would reduce transmission enormously by reducing the size of the ‘matrix’.  (Instead of 100 by 100, say, where everyone can infect everyone else, you’d have lots of smaller 3-4 by 3-4 groups, more or less isolated from each other. Think of a firebreak). 

Similar thinking for commuters. If you can get a large majority of people in Winchester, for example, working from home, you’re isolating their local contact network from lots of similar ones in other commuter cities. 

It wont stop transmit ion, but if we can reduce transmission per infection from day 2.5-1.5 if will have enormous compounding effect in delaying the disease spread

 

 

 

 

 

The point is the children are at very low risk of anything serious, so while the matrix of a school will be much larger it will mostly comprise low-risk individuals. If sent home, of course the size of that matrix decreases drastically (at least initially). But each individual will leave the house for various reasons (whether it's necessary or not), and, realistically, the individual's connections won't be limited to just three or four in number. Crucially, there's a risk that a larger number of high-risk connections become established.

[BornFromTheVoid]

45 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Cases per 100,000 Iceland is top with the UK towards the bottom

 

Iceland certainly have the most cases as a proportion of their population. However, if we consider Hubei Provence as a country (population 58.5 million), then it has 4 times more than Iceland per capita.

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

The point is the children are at very low risk of anything serious, so while the matrix of a school will be much larger it will mostly comprise low-risk individuals. If sent home, of course the size of that matrix decreases drastically (at least initially). But each individual will leave the house for various reasons (whether it's necessary or not), and, realistically, the individual's connections won't be limited to just three or four in number. Crucially, there's a risk that a larger number of high-risk connections become established.

The thing that is worrying me though is the Easter holidays are coming up soon anyway.

I'm wondering whether they just don't open the schools back up at that point, because the grandparents will have been exposed to it for the best part of 17 days by that point, and the damage will be done one way or the other as thats a long time to get exposure during an exponential growth period. Th argument used today will be dead in the water, and it will serve as a great way to ensure people isolate, at least to a greater extent.

Edited March 12, 2020 by kold weather

[cyclonic happiness]

just been in the local shop to get some bits, the shopkeeper who i've known for around 12 years immediately covered his face with a scarf and looked terrible.

He was not himself at all, it was so weird.... I always have a good laugh and joke, but he looked scared to death?!  He raised the scarf over his face again when he served me, he made sure not to touch the money with his fingerless gloves (gloves in a shop?)   I asked if he was ok, he said "yeah fine" in a muffled voice.   Now i don't know what to think??? He looked so ill

I absolutely swear on my mother's life that this is just what has taken place

[snow raven]

2 hours ago, Jhonny147 said:

Agreed. Being a leader must suck. I'm glad I'm not one

Yep, I wouldn't want to be Boris (or any world leader) for all the bats in China!

[matt111]

10 minutes ago, Ryukai said:

All the areas that are now into double digits

Kensington and Chelsea: 19    Hertfordshire: 18     Oxfordshire: 17    Hampshire: 15     Devon: 13     Surrey: 13     Westminster: 12     Camden: 11     Southwark: 11

 

Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-track-coronavirus-cases

 

Of course the London areas really stand out there due to the fact they cover a much smaller area than the counties mentioned.

[Spikecollie]

5 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

just been in the local shop to get some bits, the shopkeeper who i've known for around 12 years immediately covered his face with a scarf and looked terrible.

He was not himself at all, it was so weird.... I always have a good laugh and joke, but he looked scared to death?!  He raised the scarf over his face again when he served me, he made sure not to touch the money with his fingerless gloves (gloves in a shop?)   I asked if he was ok, he said "yeah fine" in a muffled voice.   Now i don't know what to think??? He looked so ill

I absolutely swear on my mother's life that this is just what has taken place

People are genuinely terrified of this. Genuine panic can make people look (and feel) really ill.

[snefnug]

2 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Of course the London areas really stand out there due to the fact they cover a much smaller area than the counties mentioned.

Ski-ing resort preferences?  Those are affluent areas no?

[Zak M]

 

[Azazel]

5 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

People are genuinely terrified of this. Genuine panic can make people look (and feel) really ill.

*raises hand* - I’ve either got the start of a cold or something the stress has done a number on me. Tickly feeling in the back of my throat all day, feel a bit warm and I feel exhausted. 

[Bristawl Si]

As long as UK numbers stay evenly spread across regions then local NHS trusts will cope. If there is a 'breakout' somewhere and a big cluster explodes in a town or city, then that is when the next phase in the UK becomes more serious.

[Summer Sun]

Disneyland in California is going to shut down from tomorrow

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Azazel said:

*raises hand* - I’ve either got the start of a cold or something the stress has done a number on me. Tickly feeling in the back of my throat all day, feel a bit warm and I feel exhausted. 

You need to phone 111 then.

[Bristawl Si]

1 minute ago, Azazel said:

*raises hand* - I’ve either got the start of a cold or something the stress has done a number on me. Tickly feeling in the back of my throat all day, feel a bit warm and I feel exhausted. 

Call your docs. This thread aint no medical diagnosis website. Simples.

[kold weather]

Just now, Summer Sun said:

Disneyland in California is going to shut down from tomorrow

Only fourth time ever from what I've heard, one was for an earthquake, one was JFK I think and the other was 9/11.

[Bristawl Si]

9 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

People are genuinely terrified of this. Genuine panic can make people look (and feel) really ill.

If people are "genuinely terrified" my unqualified advice would be to STOP visiting this place. Genuine advice.