COVID-19 Pandemic

[Spikecollie]

11 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

All French schools and universities to shut on Monday .

Essential workers needed to combat the virus spread will still be able to access childcare with special centres set up . This is an excellent idea and means doctors , nurses etc won’t have to take time off to look after their children .

And French experts think children are transmitting the virus in high quantities and that’s why Macron has come to the decision to shut education establishments.

Good move and it's until further notice rather than a definite date like Ireland. But why are the municipal elections being allowed to go ahead (at the moment) on Sunday? People have been asked to bring their own pens but how many will? A large proportion of the population touching tables, curtains around the booths and pens does not seem like the best idea right now. Another example of the slightly expedient and non-joined up thinking around this...

[bobbarley]

32 minutes ago, Snipper said:

Will be right, wrong or somewhere in between. Quite nice UK making its own decisions.   

Depends on your point of view I suppose. 
I personally believe that Britain’s policy would only work if all countries did it together. This is a global problem not one confined to these 2 islands!

[Snipper]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

 

The daycare centres for those on the front line is surely something the U.K. could do if they decided to shut schools. 

Seems they are considering lots of options and have an open mind to deal with issues as and when. Why indicate every option for unknown scenarios?

[Methuselah]

10 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

OK, I retract my previous comments.

Boris has suddenly been thrust into the worst 2 crisis in living history, no matter what political persuasion we are, no matter how much back seat driving we think we can do, 'he' is at the head of the worst crisis since WW2 (and i'm sure you cannot deny that).

Yes he looks tired, yes he is not able to make head nor tail of this crisis...but who is?

I'm Labour, and have always been so, but at this time of crisis, there is no political party, just mankind.....we should try to support him and help him make the choose which are right for this nation.

Beggar Brexit.....beggar elections...beggar parties.    He has the hardest job on earth 

Hear! Hear! IMO, we need to get behind the man, not blindly throw stones at him. And I'm sure his medical advisers know a darned site (sight?) more than we do...?

[Snipper]

3 minutes ago, bobbarley said:

Depends on your point of view I suppose. 
I personally believe that Britain’s policy would only work if all countries did it together. This is a global problem not one confined to these 2 islands!

And if other countries policies don’t work? The review (autopsy) is months ahead. 

[Geordiesnow]

9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Great -  Full programme of championship games go ahead saturday.

I'm shocked that games are not being played behind closed doors at least, it seems like they would rather not risk disrupting the season than care for people safety or even resources.

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

 

obviously the biggest risk to herd immunity is if the virus mutates in time and make natural immunity worthless. Of course mutation can lead to other effects like reducing the severity of the illness.

Fron what I've read about Coronavirus, they tend to have a fairly long mutation time, but of course the young is a population that would be rife if the virus were to mutate at all.

 

[nick sussex]

School closures are controversial but it depends how you look at it .

The argument that they’re  low risk but they carrier the virus give it other kids who then pass it on to adults .

The kids also take public transport and spread it there .

By shutting schools you will see less spread in certain areas . Of course how about the grand parents that risk should lower as less children become infected .

Part of the UK  rationale for not closing was on essential workers with kids . Clearly setting up special day care centres for them alleviates that problem .

Economically of course this is going to effect workers who can’t access childcare . 

So France is more willing to take the economic hit. And the government needs to act to help those people .

[Captain Shortwave]

6 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

Seems obvious to me. Keep all the children, who are seemingly ultra-low-risk, in school and away from higher-risk groups.

The problem is the kids are more likely to pick up the virus at school given how packed classes already are and could potentially see higher numbers If classes are merged to make up for staff shortages. If this happens, they will spread it to older generations eventually. If you cut the possibility of infection then those children may not get the virus and hence be minimal risk to others.

In the end whatever happens it is everyone’s responsibility to fight off this disease for as long as possible. Hopefully as the days get longer and warmer, at least the virus will not be so vague to detect from symptoms as colds/flu cases fall away.

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, Geordiesnow said:

I'm shocked that games are not being played behind closed doors at least, it seems like they would rather not risk disrupting the season than care for people safety or even resources.

This is the one element that has me really questioning, I don't get the logic in not stopping these mass events from happening, especially as these are the sorts of things many elderly people visit!

The rest I can see the logic behind, but this I really can't understand AT ALL. Please someone help me with the logic of this!

[Saint coolio]

Well my daughter is coming home uni in France on Saturday. We booked the flights twenty minutes before macron announced closure, not thanks to her uni here in the UK who advised her to stay there.

anyway, she’d be up for doing childcare for the kids of nurses/doctors. I wonder if there’s any groups that can organise that kind of thing at scale?

[kold weather]

4 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

The problem is the kids are more likely to pick up the virus at school given how packed classes already are and could potentially see higher numbers If classes are merged to make up for staff shortages. If this happens, they will spread it to older generations eventually. If you cut the possibility of infection then those children may not get the virus and hence be minimal risk to others.

In the end whatever happens it is everyone’s responsibility to fight off this disease for as long as possible. Hopefully as the days get longer and warmer, at least the virus will not be so vague to detect from symptoms as colds/flu cases fall away.

I think eventually once your getting into the 20-40% of population infection, the different strategies all merge into the same one and that is to put all resources of the state into the health system, and mobilise the army to help police to keep civil obedience, and hope the damage to the population isn't too severe.

I suspect countries like France and Ireland think they still can contain this and prevent it from going full nuclear, whilst the UK/Germany seem to accept this uncontrollable to a degree and let things take its cause to a degree to help build that herd immunity.  

[Snipper]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

This is the one element that has me really questioning, I don't get the logic in not stopping these mass events from happening, especially as these are the sorts of things many elderly people visit!

The rest I can see the logic behind, but this I really can't understand AT ALL. Please someone help me with the logic of this!

Don’t the organisers have a lot to answer for?  Let’s make money and stuff the consequences.  But surely those attending should take some responsibility?  To bleat that “the government hasn’t said we shouldn’t” shows a low intelligence and or lack of imagination. 

[snowdog]

18 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Cases per 100,000 Iceland is top with the UK towards the bottom

 

Iceland were planning on testing the entire population whereas the UK is now testing only those with serious symptoms from what I understand

[Geordiesnow]

5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

This is the one element that has me really questioning, I don't get the logic in not stopping these mass events from happening, especially as these are the sorts of things many elderly people visit!

The rest I can see the logic behind, but this I really can't understand AT ALL. Please someone help me with the logic of this!

Even if the science does say it may not make much difference, why take the risk!? Why risk the health of officials, players etc especially when we heard about what happened with Arsenal and Leicester players, the Leicester news today should definately made the authorities wake up and at least postpone their game against Watford. 

[kold weather]

Just now, Snipper said:

Don’t the organisers have a lot to answer for?  Let’s make money and stuff the consequences.  But surely those attending should take some responsibility?  To bleat that “the government hasn’t said we shouldn’t” shows a low intelligence and or lack of imagination. 

A lot of people will try to cling onto normality as long as possible, and these events are an important part of that. Ultimately, companies exist in the pursuit of money, and ultimately will always go for that in one way or another. 

So it has to be upto the government to show some steel. Its the one area I really vehemently disagree with the government on, I just can't see the logic at all. Is this a subtle attempt at that ole nudge theory again....because many people will go to sporting events come what may.

[nick sussex]

I think the election decision is bizarre . 

Apart from that I was happy with Macrons measures . And also they’re delaying tax payments aswell as subsidizing those who want to work from home .

I especially liked that before anything he went to great lengths to thank those on the front line calling them heroes .

And he talked about Europe and the dangers of nationalism used to score political points at this time .

He didn’t want to see people scapegoated and his message overall was really about everyone working together .

I thought his address to the nation was very good and unifying to the country .

[Spikecollie]

Macron has (quite rightly in my opinion) defended against a nationalist backlash on border closures, saying that the virus does not respect borders and that any closures, if they are pertinent, will be taken at a European level. (Source: BFMTV live)

[daz_4]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

I suspect countries like France and Ireland think they still can contain this and prevent it from going full nuclear, whilst the UK/Germany seem to accept this uncontrollable to a degree and let things take its cause to a degree to help build that herd immunity.  

Well that could backfire very badly imo. I for one am glad that my country introduced pretty drastic measures.

[Saint coolio]

Ray of hope - zero new cases today in the original Italian red zone. Containment works?

probably Italy levels this out in the next 4-6 weeks. just in time for the UK to re-infect them all from our herd.

i have a problem with the UK strategy which i think is extraordinarily high risk given uncertainty on the parameters of the pathogen; and seems so out of sync with other countries. Are we really thinking we’re right and they’re all wrong?

i have a REALLY big problem with the strategy without a dramatic increase in testing to validate the assumptions being used in the epidemiology.

[DAVID SNOW]

2 hours ago, kold weather said:

I'm not sure who else would be to blame if people die because they have caught it from someone who hasn't listened to the advice of the government? If that will be the attitude of people, we will all get lock downed like Italy anyway eventually and the whole thing will be a mute point.

I'm indeed in the public sector, but my wife is self employed, so I do understand that problem, however if she gets ill, she needs to stay at home and it will just have to be ridden out

If you feel the need to apportion blame then that is your right.

People will die yes, people die all the time that's life, the government advisors want to keep 'things' going for as long as possible, you cant have a 'lockdown' too soon that would have an adverse effect.

Have a listen to what was said by the experts earlier.

As for self employed I don't think you understand, your circumstances may allow for a 50% drop in income, but many people would be looking at a 100% drop in income, factor in they have a young family and all of lives 'costs', then for them it wouldn't be a blasé attitude of ridding it out.

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, daz_4 said:

Well that could backfire very badly imo. I for one am glad that my country introduced pretty drastic measures.

I suppose the idea is, you can't stop it no matter what. Even if you do what China did is, the virus will just rebound again and again on your population, and there is definitely some merit to that idea. China probably has enough resources to do that, but not many can. It reminds me of the Soviet Union in WW2 in how they just seemed to have endless battalions ready to deploy against Germany. However other countries need to be more careful with their resources.

I suppose ultimately it boils down to whether you think you can stop it, or whether you think there is no coming back from it once it is really embedded i all countries nearby and your own.

The challenge for European countries is orders of magnitude more than even South Korea and China dealt with, because it is now coming from pretty much every different direction and has seeded i this country and others from numerous possible places.

[Relativistic]

2 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

The problem is the kids are more likely to pick up the virus at school given how packed classes already are and could potentially see higher numbers If classes are merged to make up for staff shortages. If this happens, they will spread it to older generations eventually. If you cut the possibility of infection then those children may not get the virus and hence be minimal risk to others.

In the end whatever happens it is everyone’s responsibility to fight off this disease for as long as possible. Hopefully as the days get longer and warmer, at least the virus will not be so vague to detect from symptoms as colds/flu cases fall away.

Indeed, it will spread to older generations one way or another. But consider the following situation. Kids are sent home where, chances are, there will be only one parent/carer to take care of them during the day. But said parent/carer will have to leave the house now and then (e.g. for food shopping), and younger children will have to go with them, where they'll be exposed to people of all age groups and not just other children. On top of that, some will just go to the cinema, etc. to kill time. This to me seems like a faster route to widespread infection?

[Summer Sun]

Coronavirus: Italy says 1,000 have died but lockdown can work

Quote

 

Coronavirus has claimed 1,016 lives in Italy, officials say, but Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio says he hopes his country will be the first in Europe to get over the emergency. Another 188 people died over 24 hours.

However, Mr Di Maio told the BBC the measures imposed in the first area of the outbreak were proving effective. Two weeks after the first 10 towns in northern Italy were declared a "red zone" and put under lockdown, he said they had no new infections.

This then served as a model to tighten measures across the country.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51852320

The key message here is lockdowns do work it's all about getting the timing right.

[Saint coolio]

1 minute ago, Relativistic said:

Indeed, it will spread to older generations one way or another. But consider the following situation. Kids are sent home where, chances are, there will be only one parent/carer to take care of them during the day. But said parent/carer will have to leave the house now and then (e.g. for food shopping), and younger children will have to go with them, where they'll be exposed to people of all age groups and not just other children. On top of that, some will just go to the cinema, etc. to kill time. This to me seems like a faster route to widespread infection?

Really?

Each secondary schoolchild mixing with dozens of schoolmates across multiple different subject classes, tutors, breaks etc.

even if they were allowed to gather in groups of 3-4 for childcare, e-learning etc, it would reduce transmission enormously by reducing the size of the ‘matrix’.  (Instead of 100 by 100, say, where everyone can infect everyone else, you’d have lots of smaller 3-4 by 3-4 groups, more or less isolated from each other. Think of a firebreak). 

Similar thinking for commuters. If you can get a large majority of people in Winchester, for example, working from home, you’re isolating their local contact network from lots of similar ones in other commuter cities. 

It wont stop transmit ion, but if we can reduce transmission per infection from day 2.5-1.5 if will have enormous compounding effect in delaying the disease spread