COVID-19 Pandemic

[Guest Delete Me]

Just now, Spikecollie said:

The announcement of cases in very fragile places like Rwanda and Sudan, for example, is very sad and potentially a humanitarian disaster.

With Africa not being in the temperature corridor they are and should be OK

[swebby]

1 hour ago, kold weather said:

In normal times I'd totally agree with this, however there will be mega money for a vaccine from this, and also many lives to be saved. I think you'll find some places will super fast track it and possibly go straight to human testing on a large level. If the vaccine saves a 1 million lives, then a 1000 people would be utterly expendable (again, its the Hisorshima argument, possibly kill some to save a greater number) on the grand scheme of things. 

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a full working vaccine by October, though obviously there is still time needed to ramp up production and get it out there. Indeed, there already are numerous first steps down that path that have been completed. I know animal testing for example has been done in London successfully.

Also, reading today that a cure is in the first stages has been started on an antibody proven to work (I think its closer linked to the SARS antibody)

I am 100% positive, that will not happen.

Phased clinical trials are there for good reasons. 

[Shaun L]

Just now, Stabilo19 said:

22 new cases in Wales, sounds like community spread is kicking off there

These figures must be under represented. My understanding is that the only confirmed cases are those that are tested in hospital

[The PIT]

1 minute ago, swebby said:

I am 100% positive, that will not happen.

Phased clinical trials are there for good reasons. 

Didn't they bypass testing for Ebola ? Pretty sure this was tested out in the field however you've got to consider that the mortality rate meant it didn't matter if it worked or not.

Edited March 14, 2020 by The PIT

[kold weather]

Just now, The PIT said:

Can we use the Spanish flu as a model though considering the planet is more interconnected than before and if there isn't the effect of a world war to take into consideration.

We also still don't know if summer will actually knock it back a bit or it will carry on regardless. There's also a possibility new strains develop which we won't be immune too as well.

It's a shame that China's knee jerk reaction to hide it allowed to spread so easily at the start.

When it's all over there will have to be a new set of rules for countries to follow to help delay the spread when the next crisis comes along be it 10 years, a year or 100 years later.

The argument is the effect of all the troops returning back from the front line is effectively analogous to open border we have today and that is partly what made the 2nd wave so severe, combined with a mutation that made it more deadly for the 20-40 year bracket.

My guess PIT is it will still simmer in the summer regardless of what action we take. China however will likely go into total isolation. Will be interesting to see whether they can sustain it.

[Guest Delete Me]

IRAN Update:

• Cases: 12729 (+1365)
• Deaths: 611 (+97)

7th consecutive rise in the number of daily fatalities.

[swebby]

1 minute ago, The PIT said:

Didn't they bypass testing for Ebola ?

Ebola has a CFR of 90%

[kold weather]

Belgium has reported 130 new cases today so far and Austria 98. Estonia gone up by 30 which is a large jump from their previous 68.

Iran again is tghe big one, with 1365 new cases and 97 new deaths.

[alexisj9]

2 hours ago, lottiekent said:

Has anyone read what powers the governments new emergency laws are?

1. Forcing schools to stay open
2. Detaining people suspected of carrying the virus
3. Reducing standards in care homes
4. Stopping any vehicle for no reason

And these are planned to be in place for two years.

If you consider point 3 especially, no thoughts for the elderly at all. 

What on earth, doesn't sound right at all. 

[Zak M]

 

[beatpete]

22 new cases in Wales

Edited March 14, 2020 by beatpete

[Summer Sun]

Lufthansa still flying from Germany to the USA despite Trump's European ban starting at 4am. Doesn't look like it's an outright ban as such even for European airlines.

[kold weather]

Philippines deaths have gone up by 3, now upto 8 . Would suggest there is more disease down there than is being reported.

Currently 127 new deaths have been reported so far today.

[alexisj9]

2 hours ago, Zak M said:

Also, something that I forgot to mention yesterday... my school now has soap in the toilets!

My daughters school is like a hospital with hand sanitizers on the wall by every door. 

[Summer Sun]

# COVID ー 19 | Taking anti-inflammatory drugs (ibuprofen, cortisone, ...) could be a factor in worsening the infection. If you have a fever, take paracetamol. If you are already on anti-inflammatory drugs or in doubt, ask your doctor for advice.

 

[kold weather]

Spain total case now upto 5753, an increase of 521 overnight. 15 deaths overnight as well.

[Stabilo19]

Is there any actual evidence to suggest this new coronavirus strain will not spread as well during the summer?

There are a number of cases suggesting community spread in SW Australia (20-25°C), Qatar (27°C), Bahrain (27°C), Philippines (32°C), Indonesia (32°C) and so on.

[swebby]

7 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Didn't they bypass testing for Ebola ? Pretty sure this was tested out in the field however you've got to consider that the mortality rate meant it didn't matter if it worked or not.

Field trials are standard anyway.

Wiki is reasonably detailed and describes how the various ebola vaccines still went through the phased trials.

Ebola vaccine - Wikipedia

EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

Yes, things can be fast tracked, but that is in terms of throwing enough researchers and resources at the development stages to get a candidate(s), and then helping facilitate the support structures for the trials of the candidate(s) so the phases are completed in the best times possible.  But for something with a CFR of 1-2%, trials will still take place. Consider the possibility of something that is rushed and it becomes apparent is killing the same number as the actual disease, vaccine uptake will plummet, and when a more viable vaccine emerges, how do you get a reluctant population to take it. Things were bad enough with the MMR nonsense.

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, Stabilo19 said:

Is there any actual evidence to suggest this new coronavirus strain will not spread as well during the summer?

There are a number of cases suggesting community spread in SW Australia (20-25°C), Qatar (27°C), Bahrain (27°C), Philippines (32°C), Indonesia (32°C) and so on.

I think the idea is it will be harder to spread, not that it can't necessarily spread. So the idea again is if you can get to the summer months the amount of infections can decrease.

[The PIT]

1 minute ago, Stabilo19 said:

Is there any actual evidence to suggest this new coronavirus strain will not spread as well during the summer?

There are a number of cases suggesting community spread in SW Australia (20-25°C), Qatar (27°C), Bahrain (27°C), Philippines (32°C), Indonesia (32°C) and so on.

That suggests it won't. However how many of those cases are people who have come back from Europe and China for example.

In the meantime I've moved my MOT from the end of the month to this Tuesday.

[swebby]

4 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

Is there any actual evidence to suggest this new coronavirus strain will not spread as well during the summer?

There are a number of cases suggesting community spread in SW Australia (20-25°C), Qatar (27°C), Bahrain (27°C), Philippines (32°C), Indonesia (32°C) and so on.

Only that the spread appears to have been prolific in northern hemisphere countries in comparison to the examples you list. but concrete evidence of seasonality? not as far as i know. If it does spread well during summer, that would actually assist the governments strategy.

Edited March 14, 2020 by swebby

[beatpete]

13 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

What on earth, doesn't sound right at all. 

...also proposals for free Carrier bags....

[The PIT]

Just now, swebby said:

Only that the spread appears to have been prolific in northern hemisphere countries in comparison to the examples you list. but concrete evidence of seasonality? not as far as i know. If it does spread well during summer, that would actually assist the governments strategy.

Well the population density is greater in the northern Hemisphere so you would expect a greater number of infections.

 

[Snowy L]

4 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

There is no such thing as "the temperature corridor", northern Italy has been far warmer than normal for weeks on end. This has been described as "spring" by their weather pages and far above the "5-11C band" that you're referencing:

The unusual warmth was the hot topic before the virus came along, if you've got Facebook just search a few Italian Meteo pages and you'll see what I mean

The optimal temperature range is 11-15c and from those figures, Italy is close to optimal. Bare in mind those are maximum figures so in reality the temperature is slightly above optimal for an hour or two then in the optimal range for several hours either side of the maximum temperaturew. Considering the travel between Africa and China it is incredible they haven't blown up like Italy and I think temperature and humidity affects that. I'm not saying it will prevent widespread transmission, it will simply slow it down to varying degrees.

Edited March 14, 2020 by Snowy L

[Spikecollie]

3 minutes ago, beatpete said:

...also proposals for free Carrier bags....

I saw that and really have no idea what it is about.