Storms and Convective discussion - 10th April 2020 onwards

[Allseasons-Si]

Sferics still(albeit sperodic) kicking off in NW England.

[cheese]

Just started pouring in Leeds all of a sudden.

[Summer Sun]

Thunder storm over Darlington torrential rain with lots of thunder and a few strikes

[Thunder and Lightning]

I'm really liking the latest Convective Weather forecast!

[Gordon Webb]

yeah bearing in mind the usual caveats for which there are quite a few reading the actual forecast

https://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-04-11

[Allseasons-Si]

Latest from Estofex.

http://www.estofex.org/

[Supacell]

A couple of days upcoming whereby we have some thunderstorm potential which although will not be severe storms, will certainly be something to book our ears up after the long down season (although I am aware some have seen some storms already this year).

Today will be for 99% of us (away from the NW of Scotland) a sunny, dry and very warm day. There is the risk of heavy showers and thunderstorms developing but I think it will be the exception rather than the rule. Even so, there is a risk and this looks likely to start around the SW of England, probably aided by the high ground of Dartmoor and Exmoor and sea breeze convergence, late this afternoon. Further very isolated showers and storms could then break out across England and east Wales from around the Midlands southwards through the evening. Any storms that do form will pulse out quickly due to a lack of shear and moisture but could be briefly fairly intense due to decent CAPE values (NMM MUCAPE chart below) with hail and gusty winds.

A greater chance for thunderstorms exists tomorrow with low pressure approaching, more moisture and wind shear increasing from the northwest through the day. However, it may be that the best parameters in terms of wind shear remain to the north of the best instability (GFS currently showing this scenario). Even so CAPE values are decent before they erode from the northwest later in the day as the warm airmass over England gets shunted away southeastwards. Below are MUCAPE charts for 3pm and 6pm from NMM

The NMM forecast quite a number of heavy showers and thunderstorms developing across southern England and moving northwards into the Midlands. UKV is similar but keeps most of the convection to the east, with the SE Midlands into EA most at risk. Euro4 has precipitation further north across Northern England and the Northern part of the Midlands, although with Euro4 it is impossible to tell if this is of the thundery variety or just rain along the front. Clearly therefore still some uncertainty for where the best chances of a storm are tomorrow.

Tomorrows storms are likely to be pulse type unless wind shear can overlap the best instability, but any that do form could contain hail of up to 1.5cm diameter and gusty winds.

 

[StormLoser]

What? (Wakes up from hibernation...)  

Hi all. Long time no see. So, in for a chance on Sunday? Good luck for being in the sweet spot, since we can't really move much!    

[Zak M]

Skies looking unstable to my south

Edited April 11, 2020 by Zak M

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

40 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Skies looking unstable to my south

You want heating for the next couple of hours so ideally you want that cloud to shift and get some proper insolation going to push up those CAPE values

[Zak M]

Just now, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

You want heating for the next couple of hours so ideally you want that cloud to shift and get some proper insolation going to push up those CAPE values

It has all cleared up now so hopefully things will start to kick off later

[Thunder and Lightning]

4 minutes ago, Zak M said:

It has all cleared up now so hopefully things will start to kick off later

Clear skies here too! Hoping storm initiation starts in the next few hours because I just can't wait.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

The sky here does have quite a thundery look about it. Bits and pieces of altocumulus and dare I say it, a few pockets of AcCas!! 

Next couple of hours shall be interesting as peak heating is here. 

[Mapantz]

A little AcCas in the sky here. Not expecting anything today, though. I'm content with it staying dry.

[Zak M]

Here we go!

[Thunder and Lightning]

Let it begin...

[viking_smb]

thats rapid development exploded in 10 mins

Edited April 11, 2020 by viking_smb

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

A chance of one or two rogue cells developing today but I want to focus on tomorrow. Now we are very early in the storm season but from looking at the charts I am seeing the possibility for supercell potential.

as some of you know the main model I use is the wrf nmm the majority of the time it performs really well of course no model is ever 100% perfect but it has better detail than some of the other short range models especially the 2km so now some details for tomorrow which I will monitor over the rest of today’s runs for any changes.

  It is the arc of cells that I am interested in, the way there are separate cells also with intense cores peaks my interest this ties in with the euro 4 too which shows possibility of hail cores  

There will be more than enough CAPE 

the winds higher up in the atmosphere and potential vorticity associated with those cells is also evident 

all this ties in with the front covering the same area 

 

So certainly looks like a very interesting day and I wouldn’t be surprised to see hail and possible funnel / tornadic reports along that line of cells.

[Allseasons-Si]

That cell is doing an Adam Ant

Nice post @Kirkcaldy Weather,it doesn't look good here today but i am liking tomorrow's outlook

do i chase tomorrow

[Zak M]

It has electrified!

[Allseasons-Si]

We have lift off,sferics on that cell now.

[Allseasons-Si]

One developing N Cardiff now too by the looks of it.

 

[viking_smb]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

One developing N Cardiff now too by the looks of it.

 

can see the clouds for that from my house, as our front looks north towards caerphilly mountain, poss tower, can anyone else local confirm pls (its towards caerphilly mountain thornhill way)

[Marcus_surfer]

Perfect shaped cell in the Southwest!  #StayHomeSaveLives

[viking_smb]

looks like the south west cell is trying to spawn a baby cell