Storms and Convective discussion - 10th April 2020 onwards

[Thunder and Lightning]

Talking about organisation, does anyone know how much shear there was on 28 June, 2012?

[Ben Sainsbury]

16 minutes ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

Talking about organisation, does anyone know how much shear there was on 28 June, 2012?

According to this article: There were 50knts of DLS equivalent to around 25m/s.

28th June 2012

STRATUSDECK.CO.UK

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For many people in the UK, including meteorologists and weather enthusiasts, June 28th 2012 was a day...

Edited May 18, 2020 by Ben Sainsbury

[Thunder and Lightning]

4 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

According to this article: There were 50knts of DLS equivalent to around 25m/s.

28th June 2012

STRATUSDECK.CO.UK

---

For many people in the UK, including meteorologists and weather enthusiasts, June 28th 2012 was a day...

Thanks!

[Eagle Eye]

finnaly something that says thunderstorms for me

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

1 hour ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Yeah agreeing with much of the chat regarding next Thursday, general consensus is for a few home-grown elevated storms to develop across CS England and the far South. The risk generally to transfer eastwards with the potential for storms to root to the boundary layer to become surface based or for other surface based storms to form late morning across SE England and East Anglia. NMM generally tends to over-blow CAPE values but even then we are still looking at 1000J/Kg respectively. Decent DLS too as mentioned so chance of organisation and/or weak home-grown MCS as hinted by NMM. Steep lapse rates too so some quite frequent lightning at times. Though all subject to changes over the coming days.

Nice summary but I just wanted to mention the point I highlighted there are a few different nmm models so not sure which ones u refer to but as I mentioned the wrf nmm on meteociel has been doing an excellent job over the last few weeks with the storms across Europe and usually has a good handle on CAPE values, there will be plenty of chopping and changing before we reach Thursday but ATM certainly looking interesting for some areas especially down in the SE.

[Ben Sainsbury]

13 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Nice summary but I just wanted to mention the point I highlighted there are a few different nmm models so not sure which ones u refer to but as I mentioned the wrf nmm on meteociel has been doing an excellent job over the last few weeks with the storms across Europe and usually has a good handle on CAPE values, there will be plenty of chopping and changing before we reach Thursday but ATM certainly looking interesting for some areas especially down in the SE.

Thanks! From my understanding the NetWx model is a form of the NMM model if I'm right?

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

i dont think i will get anything in the far southeast ;-; think it more above me ;-;

 

[Nick F]

03z UKV ppn looking quite lively for Thursday, timing of storms to develop and their clearance east uncertain for now. As other have said, models maybe too quick, upper trough seen upper wind charts moving E/NE likely to engage warm, humid and unstable air in place over eastern England on Thursday, with large scale ascent ahead of the trough likely to trigger the storms. 

GFS probably doing is usual over-egging of CAPE, but looks to be some reasonable deep layer shear ahead of the trough, so storms could organise with perhaps one or two supercells not out the question - with large hail,frequent lightning, strong wind gusts possible.

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

4 minutes ago, Nick F said:

03z UKV ppn looking quite lively for Thursday, timing of storms to develop and their clearance east uncertain for now. As other have said, models maybe too quick, upper trough seen upper wind charts moving E/NE likely to engage warm, humid and unstable air in place over eastern England on Thursday, with large scale ascent ahead of the trough likely to trigger the storms. 

GFS probably doing is usual over-egging of CAPE, but looks to be some reasonable deep layer shear ahead of the trough, so storms could organise with perhaps one or two supercells not out the question - with large hail,frequent lightning, strong wind gusts possible.

woah love the detail! and id love to see a supercell ^-^ do you think im too far south? or east to get any action

[Eagle Eye]

13 minutes ago, Nick F said:

03z UKV ppn looking quite lively for Thursday, timing of storms to develop and their clearance east uncertain for now. As other have said, models maybe too quick, upper trough seen upper wind charts moving E/NE likely to engage warm, humid and unstable air in place over eastern England on Thursday, with large scale ascent ahead of the trough likely to trigger the storms. 

GFS probably doing is usual over-egging of CAPE, but looks to be some reasonable deep layer shear ahead of the trough, so storms could organise with perhaps one or two supercells not out the question - with large hail,frequent lightning, strong wind gusts possible.

one or two supercells, why does it sound like you're just saying it casually

[Paul Sherman]

Am definately out in the field this Thursday focusing on Cambs / Lincs / Norfolk etc

If it holds together will send back regular pictures 

[Zak M]

1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:

Am definately out in the field this Thursday focusing on Cambs / Lincs / Norfolk etc

If it holds together will send back regular pictures 

Beds? 

[Ben Sainsbury]

Just now, Paul Sherman said:

Am definately out in the field this Thursday focusing on Cambs / Lincs / Norfolk etc

If it holds together will send back regular pictures 

Obviously I really appreciate Nick's storm forecasts here on Netweather but for my general in-experience my rule of thumb is to only go storm chasing if Dan on ConvectiveWeather issues a Moderate particularly if the area of storms is over the East of the UK. If everything stays together I'm very tempted to make the drive down the M4 and stop off at my Uni house before deciding on next move.

[Zak M]

Just now, Ben Sainsbury said:

Obviously I really appreciate Nick's storm forecasts here on Netweather but for my general in-experience my rule of thumb is to only go storm chasing if Dan on ConvectiveWeather issues a Moderate particularly if the area of storms is over the East of the UK. If everything stays together I'm very tempted to make the drive down the M4 and stop off at my Uni house before deciding on next move.

In all seriousness, I think Dan will actually issue a MDT

[Paul Sherman]

27 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Beds? 

Probably lol

[Hodgheg]

Hello everyone, good to see some interest Thursday. Only thing I'd say is I'm not keen on the timing. Would like to see things kick off later in the day rather than being shoved east too early.

I see the GFS seems to be nudging toward keeping the Cape around until later in the day. 

 Any thoughts on this? 

 

Cheers.

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

33 minutes ago, John90 said:

Hello everyone, good to see some interest Thursday. Only thing I'd say is I'm not keen on the timing. Would like to see things kick off later in the day rather than being shoved east too early.

I see the GFS seems to be nudging toward keeping the Cape around until later in the day. 

 Any thoughts on this? 

 

Cheers.

Any thoughts of me getting an action here in ramsgate or no? id storm chase but ive only got a motorbike

 

[Chris Lea-Alex]

10 minutes ago, Mitch perrott said:

Any thoughts of me getting an action here in ramsgate or no? id storm chase but ive only got a motorbike

 

I could picture you riding along the coast with a CG in the background!  But I see what you mean, a bike is not exactly a faraday cage

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

10 minutes ago, Chris Lea-Alex said:

I could picture you riding along the coast with a CG in the background!  But I see what you mean, a bike is not exactly a faraday cage

HAHA yeah true but do you think ill get any storms where i am now?

 

[Eagle Eye]

probably not, but it might go southwards

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

2 hours ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Obviously I really appreciate Nick's storm forecasts here on Netweather but for my general in-experience my rule of thumb is to only go storm chasing if Dan on ConvectiveWeather issues a Moderate particularly if the area of storms is over the East of the UK. If everything stays together I'm very tempted to make the drive down the M4 and stop off at my Uni house before deciding on next move.

The M11 would be a decent road to aim for. Then you have a few options around Cambridge to split East up the A11 toward Norwich, or the A10 up past Ely towards Kings Lynn and West Norfolk. Or carry on up the A14/A1 for Peterborough into Lincolnshire. It’ll be a morning of intense radar observation, as these could well be fast movers, so decision making will be quite important! 

I’ll be preparing a full tank, although I shouldn’t need to chase too far seen as I’m seemingly slap bang under the lot!

This is now beginning to get very interesting. A good combination of high instability overlapped with decent wind shear! 

Another positive, fuel is very cheap at the moment! Take advantage while you can! 

Edited May 18, 2020 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Thunder and Lightning]

I do wish I could chase

[Thunder and Lightning]

Just now, Thunder and Lightning said:

I do wish I could chase

I'm hoping that the storms will come to me... 

[Zak M]

Well here in Bedford, we brew storms and send them elsewhere (especially in these types of set-ups) as most Bedfordians will agree... so anything north of Bedford has a 100% chance of storms on Thursday 

The track of the storms on Thursday will be similar to where they occurred on the 27th July 2018 and the 27th August 2019 by the looks of it.

Edited May 18, 2020 by Zak M

[Zak M]

Does anyone know if I am in a good position actually? I might be a bit worried that the storms might just slide to the east of me.