Storms and Convective discussion - 10th April 2020 onwards

[alexisj9]

4 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I think you might be right. Really unusual to  have something like that headed in that direction for sure. Bet Le Havre were gutted to miss out

One of the lightning strikes on that one made thunder sound that sounded like a gun being shot three times, bang bang bang. 

[MP-R]

7 hours ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

I think you may be on about June the 12th or 13th 2014. Probably the most weirdest setup that gave some epic storms over the Home Counties, Berkshire into Sussex and Hampshire and then ended up being an English export across the channel to France! I’ll never forget it. I flew out to France on holiday the day after! 

It seemed to form on the right flank of a declining high pressure that declined westwards, cooler air aloft from the North with Norherlies that overlapped a previously very warm day. A rare occurrence indeed. If Carling or John smiths did thunderstorms lol! 

A similar occurrence happened on 04th June 2006 in my neck of the woods. Seemingly in the middle of a high pressure area of about 1025mb, a warm day with good surface heating must have met some colder air aloft and allowed for thunderstorms to form through the late afternoon and early evening. Very odd.

[Thunder and Lightning]

Extremely encouraged by the UKV run! Obviously subject to significant change but a good start!

[Paul Sherman]

On 11/05/2020 at 13:30, Paul Sherman said:

Ding Dong the Plume is back which old Plume the "End of next week Plume"  

Sung to the theme of the Munchkins in The Wizard of Oz 

Could be very well played to the GooFuS for picking out the Pattern Change back on the 11th for the end of the Upcoming week.

Thursday to Sunday starting to look very interesting for some active weather and not this boring High Pressure

[Chris Lea-Alex]

@Paul Sherman

Thursday through Sunday are my days off.  This sadly means that nothing will happen

[Eagle Eye]

0% chance of precipitation for the next few days despite all the pointers, cirrus, altocumulus and virga. pictures don't give it justice

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

38 minutes ago, Xanderp009 said:

0% chance of precipitation for the next few days despite all the pointers, cirrus, altocumulus and virga. pictures don't give it justice

You mean... clouds?

nice pictures tho

[Zak M]

Windy.com for Thursday

   

   

[Thunder and Lightning]

12z GFS please bring us goodness... 

[ChannelThunder]

1 hour ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

12z GFS please bring us goodness... 

Doesn't look like a good one for us storm lovers. A slight chance in the east on Thurs

[Zak M]

22 minutes ago, lancem said:

Doesn't look like a good one for us storm lovers. A slight chance in the east on Thurs

The GFS doesn't perform too well though. I use the WRF-NMM, EURO4 and sometimes even the ECM when I'm looking for potential storms.

It is still quite far away though so things are subject to change!

Edited May 17, 2020 by Zak M

[Thunder and Lightning]

How do you access the WRF-NMM?

[Zak M]

13 minutes ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

How do you access the WRF-NMM?

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?map=20

This is the one for Europe and goes up to 120.

The link below is the one for the UK but only goes up to 72

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=3&mode=1&map=5

Edited May 17, 2020 by Zak M

[matt111]

If you have access to it the UKV is good too. 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Hmmm. Interesting. The runs have been improving somewhat as we head closer to Thursday! 

I’ve got a day off too, which may mean I can head out chasing. Glad we’ve now got something to finally keep an eye on. 

Lincolnshire and the East Midlands are currently looking like the best place to be as it stands. 

Edited May 17, 2020 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Josh Rubio]

Still ages away to be pinpointing locations as to who will see what. 

Wednesday night is when I will start to get interested in any forecasts and potential developments.

[viking_smb]

same, I tend to look at the met office fax charts as can work out the weather from that (advantages of being a rib driver), I dont think wales will get any I think it will be more west - east mids and eastern areas personally. 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

3 hours ago, Zak M said:

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?map=20

This is the one for Europe and goes up to 120.

The link below is the one for the UK but only goes up to 72

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=3&mode=1&map=5

Yes that is my number one model for storms and has been performing well over the last few weeks with European storms across Spain, France etc just to add the wrf nmm 2km is the most accurate once whatever the target day is within 36 hour range. 

[Mapantz]

3 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

the wrf nmm 2km is the most accurate once whatever the target day is within 36 hour range. 

I beg to differ. I've seen that fail just as many times as other high resolution models.

[viking_smb]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

I beg to differ. I've seen that fail just as many times as other high resolution models.

what's your thoughts about the coming storm potential?

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

9 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I beg to differ. I've seen that fail just as many times as other high resolution models.

No model will ever be 100% and I was meaning most accurate detail out of the wrf nmm models that I use on meteociel and it does a good job getting close to the eventual outcome for storms, snowfall etc so I'm happy. 

Edited May 17, 2020 by Kirkcaldy Weather

[Mapantz]

3 minutes ago, viking_smb said:

what's your thoughts about the coming storm potential?

Not really paid much attention to be honest.

Sunshine should promote some energy build up on Thursday, particularly in the East. The FAX shows a trough in the East as well as a cold front pushing in from the West, that will act as a forcing mech. Convergence may well play a part as well. Other than that, not much on offer.

[viking_smb]

9 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Not really paid much attention to be honest.

Sunshine should promote some energy build up on Thursday, particularly in the East. The FAX shows a trough in the East as well as a cold front pushing in from the West, that will act as a forcing mech. Convergence may well play a part as well. Other than that, not much on offer.

cheers mate, Just cant wait to get out of lockdown and back on the water now. last time been afloat was 7th march (rescue for dinghy racing) and normally now it's our busiest time with dinghy racing also our training school (i'm part of) and yacht racing running (meaning i'm constantly on the water on ribs), but taking advantage though of lockdown by sorting garden out for parents etc. whilst still working 1 - 2 days a week (cant wait to go back full time), back to the weather I think the east will be more at risk than us in the west.

Edited May 17, 2020 by viking_smb

[Allseasons-Si]

charts/models just give you a general area of potential but are not 100% accurate even for the day before

There is nothing more accurate than on the day itself,cloud watching on sat 24,looking in the sky for developments,radar watching and CZ's(convergence zones)

there does look to be a trigger in the form of a cold front/trough out west pushing east Thu and another little feature in east midlands/east Anglia.

this is still 4/5 days away and we will just have to see how it goes through the week.

Edit:Mapantz just illustrated what i have just put.

 

 

 

Edited May 17, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Zak M]

Here we go - updated version of Windy (they have many models on display in the bottom right but I am using the ecm)

   

   

The ECM is pinpointing East Anglia as the best place to see storms on Thursday.

Edited May 17, 2020 by Zak M