Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards

[matt111]

Just now, viking_smb said:

why's that mate?

[Zak M]

Just now, viking_smb said:

why's that mate?

Has the thundery activity more NE than any other model and any thundery activity looks to die out before reaching N England.

[viking_smb]

1 minute ago, Zak M said:

Has the thundery activity more NE than any other model and any thundery activity looks to die out before reaching N England.

looks like it, how reliable is this model then? 

[matt111]

@viking_smb I haven't had had access to it for long enough to tell but from what I've seen it's often not far off the mark. Not to say it's right of course as with any model, especially when it seems so different to the others

[Ben Sainsbury]

No UKV is not awful, risk is just much further North than the other hi-res models. Theta-E values are a touch further east as low pressure seems to sit further NE hence why intensity appears lower on the UKV. Not something to worry about now unless other models come on board.

[Met4Cast]

4 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Has the thundery activity more NE than any other model and any thundery activity looks to die out before reaching N England.

Normally I would be discounting it, but the EURO4 is even worse. Nothing at all overnight and then an area of rain misses EA entirely in the morning

[Met4Cast]

4 minutes ago, viking_smb said:

looks like it, how reliable is this model then? 

Generally, very. It's the Met Office high resolution model, rely on UKV & EURO4 quite heavily.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

11 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Generally, very. It's the Met Office high resolution model, rely on UKV & EURO4 quite heavily.

Aren’t elevated storms quite hard to predict though? Something to do with SBCAPE values being hard to pin down?

[viking_smb]

it will be interesting to hear what dan @convective weather has to say

[Allseasons-Si]

Tomorrow:-

radar watching

Sat watching

CZ watching

car full of fuel

cam and two cam batteries ready

tri-pod

snacks 

drinks

without the missus and daughter,big

oh! and finally...storms,a big 

might drive down to Newton Poppleford

Edited June 11, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Met4Cast]

2 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Aren’t elevated storms quite hard to predict though? Something to do with SBCAPE values being hard to pin down?

The UKV has a known weakness when it comes to elevated thunderstorms, particularly imports such as the forecast for tomorrow night, according to the Mets I spoke to when the UKV first became available to us. 

The ICON 18z still looks good.

[Harry]

Models are such a tease at the moment want to have family over in the garden on the weekend but the forecast is saying it’ll be somewhere between hot and humid sunshine, to cloud with odd cloud break and the risk of a shower, to torrential downpours...driving me bonkers. Now in the space of about 9 hours we’ve gone from MCS type feature concurred by a number of models, to a shower 100 miles South east of Lindisfarne

[Ben Sainsbury]

6 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Aren’t elevated storms quite hard to predict though? Something to do with SBCAPE values being hard to pin down?

For elevated storms you need ML CAPE & not SB CAPE, since the storm base begins higher up in our atmosphere. Unfortunately the UKV doesn't show ML CAPE, only SB.

Edited June 11, 2020 by Ben Sainsbury

[Argyle10]

6 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Tomorrow:-

radar watching

Sat watching

CZ watching

car full of fuel

cam and two cam batteries ready

tri-pod

snacks 

drinks

without the missus and daughter,big

oh! and finally...storms,a big 

might drive down to Newton Poppyford

Where's poppyford

[viking_smb]

near exeter

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, Charlie Harnett said:

Where's poppyford

sorry,meant to say Newton Poppleford,Exeter.

poppies are getting to me lol

Edited post above^

Edited June 11, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Argyle10]

10 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Tomorrow:-

radar watching

Sat watching

CZ watching

car full of fuel

cam and two cam batteries ready

tri-pod

snacks 

drinks

without the missus and daughter,big

oh! and finally...storms,a big 

might drive down to Newton Poppyford

Any chance of storms in camelford

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

17 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

For elevated storms you need ML CAPE & not SB CAPE, since the storm base begins higher up in our atmosphere. Unfortunately the UKV doesn't show ML CAPE, only SB.

my error I meant ML

Long day

Edited June 11, 2020 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[Ben Sainsbury]

5 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

my error I meant ML

Long day

I thought so from a knowledgeable poster like yourself, still wanted to make sure aha!

[Zak M]

Here's my forecast for Friday 12th June 06z - Saturday 13th June 06z. Looking at the UKV and EURO4, my hopes aren't as high as they used to be.

Edited June 11, 2020 by Zak M

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Here's my forecast for Friday 12th May 06z - Saturday 13th May 06z. Looking at the UKV and EURO4, my hopes aren't as high as they used to be.

Don't you mean June?

[Jamie M]

Still hopeful that this mess won't be gone from all models by tomorrow morning. I'd say we're in a decent shot for something. 

AROME 18z is running currently, hoping it stays like the 12z.

[Zak M]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Don't you mean June?

Corrected 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

The Hirlam is still going with a MCS into EA. Just waiting for the others to roll out. 

One more viewing of the 0z in the morning, and then it’s straight to the real time viewing. 

[viking_smb]

2 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

The Hirlam is still going with a MCS into EA. Just waiting for the others to roll out. 

One more viewing of the 0z in the morning, and then it’s straight to the real time viewing. 

see what the other models say in the morning, also met office as well.