Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards

[MP-R]

2 hours ago, A.J said:

so, what's new?.....I see the Sherminator's still here......a genuine storm chasing legend that man.......flash bang, Harry, Dan, EES91, snow-joke....nice to see some familiar faces......but the most important question is 'was there any Ac Cas in Newton Poppleford today ?' 

Lol! Good to see you back here AJ. I do remember some amusing tiffs you had with Willius Grimstellanus a few years back...

[viking_smb]

Just now, MP-R said:

Lol! Good to see you back here AJ. I do remember some amusing tiffs you had with Willius Grimstellanus a few years back...

i remember them, quite funny as well.

[sheikhy]

7 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

The Hirlam is still going with a MCS into EA. Just waiting for the others to roll out. 

One more viewing of the 0z in the morning, and then it’s straight to the real time viewing. 

Gfs looks same as 12z as well and brings a batch of storms through east anglia and west into the midlands i think?!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

8 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Gfs looks same as 12z as well and brings a batch of storms through east anglia and west into the midlands i think?!

Theres so much that could dictate this system. It’s a very unusual direction for storms to come from too, so no surprise that there’s one run different from the other! 

Cloudcover and the amount of sun and heat over Belgium, NE France and Luxembourg will be important, how far north the low in the BoB gets, and how much instability we can also drag in further from the Netherlands and Germany (the more, the better). 

[Jamie M]

And that's a SE hit right there. 

[Zak M]

Erm... 18z AROME, are you alright there?!

Edit: @Jamiee beat me to it!

Edited June 11, 2020 by Zak M

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

This could all change so much by the middle of the day tomorrow. It’s madness to hang your hat on anything yet we’re talking about late tomorrow evening and so much has yet to happen synoptically before we get to that point...

It’s strange to wait until so late to see forecasts from the main players but it just shows that nobody is sure what will happen

[Jamie M]

2 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

This could all change so much by the middle of the day tomorrow. It’s madness to hang your hat on anything yet we’re talking about late tomorrow evening and so much has yet to happen synoptically before we get to that point...

It’s strange to wait until so late to see forecasts from the main players but it just shows that nobody is sure what will happen

I'm just prepared for it to completely either not appear or die off in the N Sea knowing the luck of the imports.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Liking the look of that quite a bit! 

That thing covers virtually all of Stella Artois land! 

Edited June 11, 2020 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Met4Cast]

Go home AROME, you're drunk..

[Mapantz]

Saturday morning's trough showing up on the UKV ties in with the FAX charts, at the moment.

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Liking the look of that quite a bit! 

You mean whats over lincolnshire or the beast that incoming from north east france/netherlands

[Jamie M]

Someone's had some lost sleep. Absolutely mental. Cloud tops of -58°C.

It's probably going to be gone in the morning though.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

4 minutes ago, Jamiee said:

I'm just prepared for it to completely either not appear or die off in the N Sea knowing the luck of the imports.

Or *shudder* it stalls somewhere in the channel for a couple of hours and the air mass mixes out before it’s got a chance to reach us and go bang

ugh.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Convective Weather

WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

---

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

 

Convective Weather

WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

---

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

 

Convective Weather

WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

---

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

 

W00P!!
given you 3 chances

Edited June 11, 2020 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[Jamie M]

Crushing sentence here.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Just now, Jamiee said:

Crushing sentence here.

Yeah it reads like a rollercoaster

[Hodgheg]

1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Yeah it reads like a rollercoaster

It’s a very long winded way of saying it might or might not...

Just keep expectations low and then all the better if something does happen. At least it’s more interesting than the nice but boring weather since lockdown. 

[viking_smb]

i always look forward to dans forecasts   as he is usually spot on.

[Chris Lea-Alex]

Tomorrow sounds like a very complicated situation.  In my uninformed opinion, what is likely is a wet mess.  What is guaranteed is for the North Sea to light up like a Christmas tree with lots of lights on it.

[Zak M]

   

Why does the UK one show the activity further off the coast when the France one shows it taking a path right through East Anglia?

Edited June 12, 2020 by Zak M

[Chris Lea-Alex]

22 minutes ago, Zak M said:

 

 

Why does the UK one show the activity further off the coast when the France one shows it taking a path right through East Anglia?

No idea unfortunately.  I shall be opening my bedroom window for the natural alarm clock that's for sure

Edited June 12, 2020 by Chris Lea-Alex

[Azazel]

3 hours ago, Zak M said:

Erm... 18z AROME, are you alright there?!

Edit: @Jamiee beat me to it!

Looool that even brings me into it.

[Guest]

Erm Arome isn’t good viewing, watered down front at lunchtime and then keeps the MCS offshore of the east coast tonight!! 

[Thunder and Lightning]

3 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Erm Arome isn’t good viewing, watered down front at lunchtime and then keeps the MCS offshore of the east coast tonight!! 

Even though the nighttime threat doesn't look good on there, go have a look at the south on Saturday afternoon/evening on the AROME. It likely won't happen, but is a very exciting model run nevertheless.