South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2020 onwards

[chionomaniac]

7 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

This may be where your wonderful enthusiasm is ahead of your knowledge, sheldon. Can you show me where you think the split is on that temperature chart ( it exhibits the temp profile of a displacement too)?

So here is the same chart with heights from netweather. I have highlighted the areas of high and low pressure and this pattern shows that the low pressure area (strat pv) has been displaced to one side of the hemisphere by the higher pressure area. The strat pv would need to be seen split into two vortices to get a split. You need the height charts to be able to demonstrate this, sheldon.

Edited December 30, 2020 by chionomaniac
Forgot to add chart

[Eagle Eye]

ITV Weather went until 3pm Tommorrow huh

Edited December 30, 2020 by Sheldon Cooper

[Binsey72]

All I want is about 5 cms on bluebell hill just enough for a hours or so sledging  surely that’s going to happen once !!! 

[chionomaniac]

5 minutes ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

I'm only saying there's a split in the Northern half and wether this could affect High's Pushing Low's towards our South and wether this is what Sends Low's in Winter Time Or Around Then

Apparantly the NOAA have some help with Reading Charts but thier website is so hard to move around. 

I suggest that you start with the basics - understanding 500hPa charts first and 850 temp charts. Should be in the NW guides

[Eagle Eye]

Tried to look at the NOAA Charts was A Big Mistake. 

1 minute ago, chionomaniac said:

I suggest that you start with the basics - understanding 500hPa charts first and 850 temp charts. Should be in the NW guides

 

[Biggin]

17 minutes ago, clark3r said:

Time for a break from model watching, any cold or snow chance seems to be downgraded or too marginal

Beginning to think you are right  What will be will be

[snowrye]

Thought I was looking at a live stream from reed timmer then

[Biggin]

Kin ell that aint even touching the south coast

[Vesuvius]

1 hour ago, Paul Sherman said:

So a lot of talk of why are the BBC forecasting a Rain/Sleet Streamer for next week - Have taken a look at 5 of the Models that go to T120 for todays update and will put a percentage in here of what it is currently showing for Monday 4th Jan

Arpege currently showing Rain

Icon currently showing Rain

Ukmo currently showing Rain

ECMWF currently showing Rain/Showers

GFS currently showing Rain or Wintry Showers

So at the moment the percentage chances of Snow on Monday are at 0% out of 100 so there is really only one way we can go on tomorrows Update. I will add in the Precip Models as we get closer that only go out to a few days ahead and average out the chances to get the percentage but currently not looking great

Mondays Snow Risk Currently at - 0%

 That high eh Paul ?  Ha. Who knew.  And the bloody Crown is shut so us SE Essex folk can’t even meet for a pint and reminisce for the days when we saw that thing, erm oh yes snow. 

[Eagle Eye]

[pureasthedriven]

10 minutes ago, clark3r said:

Time for a break from model watching, any cold or snow chance seems to be downgraded or too marginal

I’m with you pal. Time to become re-infuriated with Gavin Williamson and get to grips with yet more changes for Jan, not content with having us basically work all through the Christmas ‘break’. The weather - in my very humble opinion coupled with years of experience of watching closely - is going nowhere fast for this region any time soon. If cold rain and the odd flake of wet snow floats your boat, fill your boots. I do get all the debate about ‘Synoptics vs Climate Change’ - I really do. However, as a child of the 70s and 80s I am convinced (convinced) that the Synoptics we are seeing now would have delivered a notably colder, and therefore snowier, set up. In other words, the ‘standard’ snow set up of yore doesn’t cut it any more. Now we need perfect/exceptional for sustained (Dec 2010) or freakishly lucky and rare (Feb 2018 - even that was mostly insipid in Gatwick). I clearly, clearly remember snow days from westerly regimes, albeit PM westerlys. Frontal snow. Anyway, one digresses without specific evidence and no doubt more data-informed folk could put me right. But I know I’m not wrong. See you on the other side - and hopefully before too long; but not before it’s actually snowed in this location. 

[Alpine glow]

I can't help but laugh watching all that precipitation to the south of us.. in the Channel!  it's literally kissing us.  I'm watching it edge by totally bemused!  Typical

[Binsey72]

Looking at posts and various forecasts , looks like this time next week may be our chance .  I guess things change daily though 

[Tom Quintavalle]

Evening all,

Hope you all had as nice a Christmas, as was possible.

With all this talk on the Model Thread, of 850sgate and the importance of the Upper Air Temperatures and S.S.T.'s, thought I would post up a link about "North Sea Effect Snow", put together by our own Jo Farrow:

Sea Effect Snow - the UK version of Lake Effect snow. Very cold air across the North Sea (netweather.tv)

Thames Snow Streamers, are my pet subject and having lived in S.E. London/N.W.Kent for the greater part of my 65 Years, have been the catalyst for some of the best Snow events, I've witnessed.

I didn't realise it at the time, my first recollection of a T.S.S. event, was in the early hours of Christmas Day 1970, when I was 15:

         500hPa 00z 25th Dec.1970                          850hPa 00z 25th Dec.1970

         

Perhaps, one of the very few White Christmases, I've witnessed.

I was living between Grove Park and Bromley North, at the time. Can vividly remember listening to the Shipping Forecast on Radio 4, it used to be on at around 12.30 A,M., back in those Days.

Fat, feathery Snowflakes as large as saucers were drifting down, against the light of a lamp post , just outside our back garden. A couple of hours later, there was a huge crack of thunder, my first encounter with Thundersnow.

Occasional streams of Snow Showers continued during the rest of Christmas Day and part of Boxing Day, leaving a deposit of around 4 inches of Snow, in my home location.

I used to have newspaper clippings from a couple of Broadsheets of all the major Snow events that had affected,          the S.E. Region, which they obtained from the Met Office. The 2 Day outlook at the time stated, "Wintry Showers developing, with Snow over high ground", for London and the South East.

Fast forward to February 2005, a few Weeks after I joined the Netweather Forum, as TOMSE20.

It was around that time that former Forum Member Ian Brown (of WTF fame), claimed that High Latitude Blocking was a thing of the past and could no longer occur. 

In late February/early March 2005, we experienced a prolonged spell of Northern Blocking. Below, are a few archive charts, from that spell:

               500hPa 18z 21st Feb.2005                     850hPa 00z 21st Feb.2005       

          

             500hPa 18z 24th Feb.2005                      850hPa 00z 24th Feb.2005   

         

A couple of Thames Snow Streamers, during that spell. The Snow took quite a time to stick and was melting at first.

I was living at Anerley, S.E. London, at the time and had surface temperatures been lower and also temperatures further East over Europe, weren't especially low but had that been the case, IMO I would have been looking at a 6 inch fall, rather than the temporary covering, of a couple of inches of Snow. 

I witnessed 13 Days "on the trot" with Snow falling, mostly in flurry form, in that incredible spell of "surprise", Northern Blocking.

Regards,

Tom.  

Edited December 30, 2020 by TomSE12

[Paul Sherman]

Just as an Update we remain at 0% after the 12z ECM which gives a thouroughly miserable washout day on Monday with Temps around 5c and cold rain coming in on an Easterly breeze.

We await tomorrows Updated Models 1 day closer to the Start of the wind shift.

[Essexfish]

 Great explanation of why next week is likely to be cold and wet rather than cold and white.

[chionomaniac]

3 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Just as an Update we remain at 0% after the 12z ECM which gives a thouroughly miserable washout day on Monday with Temps around 5c and cold rain coming in on an Easterly breeze.

We await tomorrows Updated Models 1 day closer to the Start of the wind shift.

Ukv has sleet?

[jamesgold]

Well the MAD thread really isn’t the place to be this afternoon haha! Anyway, I’m expecting dew points and uppers to be slightly overestimated at the moment - might be more in hope, but I can understand models being confused with the current setup, and forecasters unwilling to nail their colours to the mast wrt snow potential. I think a warmer North Sea will provide some heavier precipitation which may help me out at only 60m asl. All will be resolved soon (after the events mostly aha) and all I can say is I’m glad there’s so much going on as a nice distraction to the world atm.

Edited December 30, 2020 by jamesgold

[TROY]

28 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Evening all,

Hope you all had as nice a Christmas, as was possible.

With all this talk on the Model Thread, of 850sgate and the importance of the Upper Air Temperatures and S.S.T.'s, thought I would post up a link about "North Sea Effect Snow", put together by our own Jo Farrow:

Sea Effect Snow - the UK version of Lake Effect snow. Very cold air across the North Sea (netweather.tv)

Thames Snow Streamers, are my pet subject and having lived in S.E. London/N.W.Kent for the greater part of my 65 Years, have been the catalyst for some of the best Snow events, I've witnessed.

I didn't realise it at the time, my first recollection of a T.S.S. event, was in the early hours of Christmas Day 1970, when I was 15:

         500hPa 00z 25th Dec.1970                          850hPa 00z 25th Dec.1970

         

Perhaps, one of the very few White Christmases, I've witnessed.

I was living between Grove Park and Bromley North, at the time. Can vividly remember listening to the Shipping Forecast on Radio 4, it used to be on at around 12.30 A,M., back in those Days.

Fat, feathery Snowflakes as large as saucers were drifting down, against the light of a lamp post , just outside our back garden. A couple of hours later, there was a huge crack of thunder, my first encounter with Thundersnow.

Occasional streams of Snow Showers continued during the rest of Christmas Day and part of Boxing Day, leaving a deposit of around 4 inches of Snow, in my home location.

I used to have newspaper clippings from a couple of Broadsheets of all the major Snow events that had affected,          the S.E. Region, which they obtained from the Met Office. The 2 Day outlook at the time stated, "Wintry Showers developing, with Snow over high ground", for London and the South East.

Fast forward to February 2005, a few Weeks after I joined the Netweather Forum, as TOMSE20.

It was around that time that former Forum Member Ian Brown (of WTF fame), claimed that High Latitude Blocking was a thing of the past and could no longer occur. 

In late February/early March 2005, we experienced a prolonged spell of Northern Blocking. Below, are a few archive charts, from that spell:

               500hPa 18z 21st Feb.2005                     850hPa 00z 21st Feb.2005       

          

             500hPa 18z 24th Feb.2005                      850hPa 00z 24th Feb.2005   

         

A couple of Thames Snow Streamers, during that spell. The Snow took quite a time to stick and was melting at first.

I was living at Anerley, S.E. London, at the time and had surface temperatures been lower and also temperatures further East over Europe, weren't especially low but had that been the case, IMO I would have been looking at a 6 inch fall, rather than the temporary covering, of a couple of inches of Snow. 

I witnessed 13 Days "on the trot" with Snow falling, mostly in flurry form, in that incredible spell of "surprise", Northern Blocking.

Regards,

Tom.  

Totally remember the classic White christmas 1970, lived in Peacehaven on the south coast, we had drifting snow,proper powder snow. It was great seeing those charts from that classic snowstorm. Thank you never seen charts from that day. I Was only 10 years old. Good Health to you.

[dubmuffin]

You would think I'd be used to the disappointment by now, but I was hoping this year would be different. I haven't been able to go skiing this Christmas which, I realised 5 years ago, is the only way to get my  snow fix, and the models were looking so much better than previous years, I really thought we were on to something. Nevermind, I have spent the last couple of days reinstating my long forgotten garden weather station just in case - so I have got some satisfaction getting my old RaspberryPi and CumulusMX working together. This means I can watch the temp and dew point rising just as the precipitation arrives

[Southender]

So next week we have an Easterly.....sourced from the Med. You couldn’t make it up. Probably going to be warmer than it is now. Patience is being tested...

[winterfreak]

Giving it a break for a week I think. Can’t handle the heartache 

[Jackski4]

3 minutes ago, Southender said:

So next week we have an Easterly.....sourced from the Med. You couldn’t make it up. Probably going to be warmer than it is now. Patience is being tested...

Just one run mate, don’t get too downbeat. Upgrades coming

[Country Boy]

content://com.amazon.cloud9.FileProvider/images/screenshot/1609359867551365863429.gif

Interesting little visit from the East on Sunday, is the Beast showing a visit

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

DP - 1.6 temp - 1.2 

Cooling down nicely