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Model output discussion - Winter approaches

Paul

By Paul
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Nae going to get too over-excited just yet, but the GFS 12Z at T+384 appears to be heading in the desired direction... among a general trend toward cold air, up to our NE...?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Only one run, so almost meaningless when viewed in isolation... Now awaiting the ECM; and the NAVGEM, for final confirmation?

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted

I feel will need a ‘Skinny high’ version of ‘wedges make sledges’ how about ‘get a skiing high and the flakes will Fly”? 
 

so far so good..

26BF4DC1-2DAB-49FD-AE43-620F0CB4743D.gif

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted
8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC wants to bring in a Scandy high by day 7....

Day 6 actually  not in realms of fantasy, day 5 was more amplified on this morning baby steps a cautious optimism if you’re after something drier and colder. 

5279A2A1-C507-475F-BE41-CE1A9954EC58.thumb.png.bbed57ac3ef0af2337fdb14dc20d300d.png

 

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Chesil View Accomplished

Chesil View

Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
Posted

Just the normal ECM teaser again this time round. I'll just park those minus 8's in the North sea and then let the Atlantic take over.

Will be interesting to see where it sits in the ensembles. If it's a top end warm solution for London then things could get interesting.

Not holding my breath though.

 

 

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

Day ten on the ECM just looks like rinse and repeat to me with more trough disruption against the scurasian block and Atlantic ridge still forcing the jet SE.

ECH1-240.thumb.gif.cc4bd038ee49167ab39692abd645e3c7.gifECH101-240.thumb.gif.deb8c1ce48a7d0e5c51b5535f63fcfee.gif

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted
4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

looking at the ecm mean at day 10/11, the tpv is influential on the other side of the NH which surely leaves the Atlantic sector more able to amplify back end week 2??

I noticed that on the GFS, though it is a slow post-D10 leakage to the Asia/Pacific region:

mean D8-D16:  anim_iia7.gif

I still think we will need some forcing to take advantage of this NH profile. At the moment there is just a tepid flow of NH features so even if that flow creates a colder flow, without wave action, it is likely to be a movable feast?

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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted

Ladies and gentleman... I present you perturbation 19. Crikey!!

gens-19-1-348.thumb.png.cd0614eeb4d98bf0e6c592468d5a0373.png   gens-19-0-360.thumb.png.bbd2e84cc7978e329b5efb422d45b386.png   1323366797_giphy(3).thumb.gif.ae743dd03308dc22f9eacf931a10331a.gif

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Froze were the Days Accomplished

Froze were the Days

Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
Posted
53 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Day ten on the ECM just looks like rinse and repeat to me with more trough disruption against the scurasian block and Atlantic ridge still forcing the jet SE.

Don't forget this is the 'interesting' last week of November we see before our eyes on the models...this might be eye candy synoptically compared to the rubbish which might follow after this pattern you have mentioned i.e. raging jet and just a big ol' euro high next?

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted (edited)

Here is the latest De-built ecm ens from central Holland just come out

this evening v's two days ago

1631924854_eps_pluim_tt_06260(2).thumb.png.adfd8dcf7a0d16ce2f5f9b41944a6681.pngeps_pluim_tt_06260.thumb.png.27a98e04c8888c613abaf9591ff5727c.png

^and as you can see there is a tighter cluster of colder temps than two days ago where there was a split in temps

1645893542_eps_pluim_td_06260(2).thumb.png.58510c2f52a07667db2a468ad01e4445.pngeps_pluim_td_06260.thumb.png.97193c31c00f1b11bb403b8647cc1fb5.png

^same with the dew points

1195716763_eps_pluim_dd_06260(2).thumb.png.0998b8272ddf840d5ac3548e5348fe17.pngeps_pluim_dd_06260.thumb.png.9dfea94b2ffc05ec5c8064f345b6d10f.png

^wind direction and you can see the easterlies have been extended compared to two days ago,now the question is can we tap into this cold air from the continent?,my gut feeling says no and we would probably just miss out

and i could be totally wrong

http://www.weerplaza.nl//Content/Images/icon-app.png 15daagse Midden - Weerpluim ECMWF-EXPERT | Weerplaza.nl

WWW.WEERPLAZA.NL
Bekijk de 15 daagse trend Europees weermodel voor regio Midden. Weergave van de ECMWF-EXPERT pluim met de lange...

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted (edited)

One things certain is that it is going to be cool for the next week to ten days or so after a fine day tomorrow 

here are the temps and pressure from gefs/ecm

graphe3_1000_265_33___.thumb.png.c9c86fda5e2985804a0b6d96db7416af.pnggraphe4_1000_265_33___.thumb.png.08505221b32723c542ca9499e86f1316.png

graphe_ens3_ufd6.thumb.png.475f1640489420ffdcd5c2304a581c79.pnggraphe1_00_263_30___.thumb.png.503389ae4eadda47fe89e134fea4da98.png

now what strikes me is the pressure patterns in the extended in both the gefs and ecm,fine margins for either getting fine weather or unsettled weather

goes to ring Mrs shannon.

download.thumb.jpg.244cb7e23d645a635d9eb023553e813f.jpg

Edited by Allseasons-si
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