Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[andymusic]

MORNING - hope you all are well(think I got a cold coming on, bugger eh) - GFS 00z flippin really cold from late next week - dry cold initially then further on into the run switches from an easterly to a north easterly - ARTIC kicks in and yer we go folks - dumpings of SNOW - loads of it as we go into around the 1st week of March - the model shows kind of December 2010 REDUX - ie a repeat of December 2010 where we had ice and snow for nearly 4 weeks - virtually the same pattern is showing - crikey we are gonna get flippin BURIED LOL!

WE are all gonna need a BIG coat and loads of WINTER WOOLIES - looks like the 100 year event of December 2010 is back with us again - WIERD EH!

Edited February 19, 2023 by andymusic

[keithlucky]

10 hours ago, andymusic said:

MORNING - hope you all are well(think I got a cold coming on, bugger eh) - GFS 00z flippin really cold from late next week - dry cold initially then further on into the run switches from an easterly to a north easterly - ARTIC kicks in and yer we go folks - dumpings of SNOW - loads of it as we go into around the 1st week of March - the model shows kind of December 2010 REDUX - ie a repeat of December 2010 where we had ice and snow for nearly 4 weeks - virtually the same pattern is showing - crikey we are gonna get flippin BURIED LOL!

WE are all gonna need a BIG coat and loads of WINTER WOOLIES - looks like the 100 year event of December 2010 is back with us again - WIERD EH!

Just as big downdwelling,Interesting to see how warm the Arctic  gets.PV in  half sending Arctic air over Europe  when we had the 2010 blizzard missed  Swansea lol  and went Carmarthen and Cardiff lol.

[andymusic]

MARCH 2023 - SNOW DUMPINGS WALES

[andymusic]

SNOWY SNOWY SNOWY

[andymusic]

GFS 6z more of the same - cold winds from the east start everything off next weekend - then around 2nd March 2023 the snow starts coming - then an ARTIC blast like December 2010 - 100 YEAR EVENT - not likely - every 13 years now lol

[goosey007]

3 hours ago, andymusic said:

GFS 6z more of the same - cold winds from the east start everything off next weekend - then around 2nd March 2023 the snow starts coming - then an ARTIC blast like December 2010 - 100 YEAR EVENT - not likely - every 13 years now lol

Thanks for the updates Andy ......shame its all a bit out in FI..... especially ref snow detail ........ Encouraging non the less let see what occurs! also ref dec 2010 the fact this will be late winter/early spring suggests it wont be as potent for most....

[andymusic]

1 hour ago, goosey007 said:

Thanks for the updates Andy ......shame its all a bit out in FI..... especially ref snow detail ........ Encouraging non the less let see what occurs! also ref dec 2010 the fact this will be late winter/early spring suggests it wont be as potent for most....

we'll have to see - yes the sun will be slightly higher in the sky but if the 850s are as punishing as they look then this could well be a record breaker in deed!

[keithlucky]

I really think they don't understand the negativity in the model thread.Most people don't  understand the massive influence of stratospheric warming. Complete zonal reversal won't be in place around 3rd,Quickly dragging bitter temperatures westwards from the east .Model outputs won't settle down until around the 28th.As the press had said previously. and will say "Weather Bomb"is coming.

[andymusic]

11 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

I really think they don't understand the negativity in the model thread.Most people don't  understand the massive influence of stratospheric warming. Complete zonal reversal won't be in place around 3rd,Quickly dragging bitter temperatures westwards from the east .Model outputs won't settle down until around the 28th.As the press had said previously. and will say "Weather Bomb"is coming.

I'm with you on this Keith - the madmod thread are full of negative cynics lol - crazy bunch of nut job scientist types who only believe what the ops on the models are throwing out but the whole set up SCREAMS FREEZING WEATHER AND DUMPINGS OF SNOW!

[snefnug]

When I was a teenager in Ashbourne, Derbyshire, the earlier the Shrovetide football game happened, the more the likelihood of snow at Easter,  this year Shrovetide is tomorrow.  Easter is April 9th, so who knows, climate change notwithstanding.

[keithlucky]

2 hours ago, keithlucky said:

I really think they don't understand the negativity in the model thread.Most people don't  understand the massive influence of stratospheric warming. Complete zonal reversal won't be in place around 3rd,Quickly dragging bitter temperatures westwards from the east .Model outputs won't settle down until around the 28th.As the press had said previously. and will say "Weather Bomb"is coming.

You having a laugh!!!Prediction for weather for March

[snefnug]

28 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

You having a laugh!!!Prediction for weather for March

Are you sure @andymusic didn’t write that?  Cos there is alorralorrasnow in that there forecast

[keithlucky]

4 minutes ago, snefnug said:

Are you sure @andymusic didn’t write that?  Cos there is alorralorrasnow in that there forecast

Lol my mystic meg prediction 

[keithlucky]

This what now showing up due to stratospheric warming expect more easterly flow start showing more and more next week.Secound thrid week very cold farmers beware with lambing season in full flow.

Edited February 21, 2023 by keithlucky

[andymusic]

Model runs at the moment seem a tad on the warm side so not showing totally the catastrophic charts we were seeing previously - I still think there's a nasty sting in the tail in the winter of 2022/2023 to come yet through March - just think the models are playing around with a number of ideas but the way forward is just a little foggy - All will become clear very shortly with freezing weather and dumpings of snow I'm 99% sure of that - The SSW effects - two of them no less - means two weather bombs of massive proportions - so if this don't kick the system into a major reversal and freezing cold/snow - then I don't know what will - ANDY OUT - 

[Loadsa2000]

[andymusic]

MORNING - GFS 00z - amazing synoptics with the ARTIC kicking in the Northerly/NORTH easterly - way out at around 8th March

AND THE UK STARTS DISSAPPEARING UNDERNEATH THE WHITE GOLD LOL

[dyl232]

Imagine this

[keithlucky]

8 hours ago, andymusic said:

MORNING - GFS 00z - amazing synoptics with the ARTIC kicking in the Northerly/NORTH easterly - way out at around 8th March

AND THE UK STARTS DISSAPPEARING UNDERNEATH THE WHITE GOLD LOL

If this stratospheric warming  correct , 

 

1 hour ago, dyl232 said:

Imagine this

This has been forecasted for weeks ,look at the USA the polar votex has spilt one section going there and other Europe,a second down dwelling occurring Monday this drive colder air down to the surface, inturn causing winds to swing to a easterly ,we can see colder air travelling westwards across Europe next week.                                 Chance of snow for some Saturday night.

[Crepuscular Ray]

Slightly blurry, but pretty, and flipping cold.

[andymusic]

Met Office long range forecast looking decidedly chilly and wintry

Tuesday 28 Feb - Thursday 9 Mar

On Tuesday, a mostly settled day across the country. Brisk winds expected in southern areas, with the risk of a few wintry showers. Northern areas will see more mild conditions. Through the rest of the week, high pressure will dominate across the UK, leading to dry conditions for most but rather cloudy at times. Showers are possible in southern and eastern areas, with a small chance of a few wintry showers in southern areas. For the rest of the period, high pressure is likely to migrate northwards, increasing the likelihood of colder, northerly winds across the UK, increasing the chance of snow showers for many eastern and northern areas. Temperatures to start below average in southern areas but increasing to around average through the period.

Friday 10 Mar - Friday 24 Mar

In this period, spells of rain or snow, are more likely than earlier in the month, with a low chance that some wintry episodes could be disruptive, though north western areas most likely to see the driest conditions. Winds could often be from a northerly or easterly direction, and temperatures are more likely to be below-average than above-average overall, but later in the month, colder air will be fighting against a strengthening sun.

[Wetterfrosch]

17 hours ago, Crepuscular Ray said:

Slightly blurry, but pretty, and flipping cold.

Brilliant shot! The previous day the moon was between what I suppose is Venus and Jupiter which was even more spectacular.

[Crepuscular Ray]

1 hour ago, Wetterfrosch said:

Brilliant shot! The previous day the moon was between what I suppose is Venus and Jupiter which was even more spectacular.

Thank you. Sadly, it was cloudy here on Wednesday evening. Yes, Venus and Jupiter.

[keithlucky]

Gradually Met Office increasing there wintry outlook.

[keithlucky]

Slight adjustment westwards blizzards conditions gale force northerly winds