Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[DeepSnow]

From and imby perspective I won't be convinced of any snow on low/costal areas until within a few hours of the event. This winter has been very poor for the coastal areas. Looking very interesting though the weekend, you'd think somepoint sooner or later something would give for us all lol

[A-Dizzle]

Snowing very lightly here now in Abertillery.

[dbaloo]

Still raining...these last few days have been relentless 

[Jayfromcardiff]

Still a decent chance of snow during the early hours of Sunday morning. Majority of models and the BBC graphics are showing it. I'm sure most of us would be happy with even a few cm of snow.

[Snowguy]

Continuing hail showers here in Cardiff covered everything this morning, constantly rattling the windows last night.

[Jayfromcardiff]

1 hour ago, Snowguy said:

Continuing hail showers here in Cardiff covered everything this morning, constantly rattling the windows last night.

It was the same in Caerphilly. Caerphilly mountain was quite icy when driving over into Cardiff this morning for work.

[Jayfromcardiff]

A period of snow is still being shown for Sunday morning. Still nothing from the Met Office though so not getting my hopes up yet.

[Jayfromcardiff]

Latest BBC text forecast:

Saturday will be cloudy with the odd wintry shower in places, but with some bright spells around noon. Sunday will see widespread areas of sleet, rain and snow in the morning. Accumulating snow is possible down to low levels. Clearing later in the day. Monday will turn sunny and largely dry with a chance of the odd shower in the early afternoon.

[mattrout92]

1 hour ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

A period of snow is still being shown for Sunday morning. Still nothing from the Met Office though so not getting my hopes up yet.

Agreed, the major models all seem to be pointing to a period of snow in South Wales on Sunday morning. The UKV extended model from this morning only shows the precipitation nudging the South coast before moving away, which is probably why the Met Office aren't on board yet. 

 

 

[Marcus_surfer]

It will probably trend south on the next run

[Weather roller-coaster]

But of sad news a body has been found in the taff in Cardiff this morning that river was ferocious yesterday

[Jayfromcardiff]

19 minutes ago, Marcus_surfer said:

It will probably trend south on the next run

Or North like other models have it positioned.

[Loadsa2000]

The rain brought by Storm Christoph is forecast to be replaced by plunging temperatures in Wales over the weekend.

Homes had to be evacuated in Wales and more than 50 roads were closed because of flooding caused by the storm on Thursday.

River levels remain high and now the Met Office has issued a yellow warning for ice for a large part of Wales on Friday morning and snow is forecast for parts of the UK on Sunday.

Forecaster Matt Taylor says: "We stay in the colder air into the weekend, meaning what falls from the sky will be wintry at times.

"One to watch – potential for more widespread snow into Sunday, details liable to change."

The Met Office warning for ice is in place from 4pm on Thursday until 10am on Friday.

 

It states: "Further showers on Thursday night will leave surfaces wet. As ground temperatures fall below freezing ice is likely to form in places. Some of the showers will be wintry, especially on high ground, with 1-2 cm snow possible above 200m."

Met Office weather forecaster Aidan McGivern said that after the rain the attention turns to "snow and ice". In a 10-day weather forecast he says: "Next week low pressure is well and truly in charge , which means there is more unsettled weather to come.

"River levels will continue to rise on Thursday but it is turning colder. Cold air spreads to all parts of the UK from the north and that means there will be some wintry hazards with icy patches.

"On Friday it will be a cold day with plenty of sunny spells. The cold air will still be with us as we start off the weekend."

 

He went on to explain the effect of the sudden stratospheric warming that happened above the North Pole at the start of January.

Aidan said: "It increases the chances of cold weather across the UK a couple of weeks after the event – it doesn't automatically lead to a Beast from the East, however we are seeing colder than average weather.

"It is turning colder because the sudden stratospheric warming has pushed the jet stream to the south of the UK.

"That means on Saturday and Sunday the UK will be to the north of the jet stream and we will see frost and ice during the mornings and below-average temperatures throughout."

Cold weather on Saturday:

 

The forecaster continued: "The south-shifted jet stream will threaten us with further areas of low pressure and they will be moving to the south of the UK.

"A frosty start to Sunday and then another low coming along southern parts of the UK bringing rain and strong winds and some snow for Wales, especially on the hill."

 

Five-day Met Office forecast for Wales:

Thursday night:

Through the evening and overnight showers become less frequent and confined to the coast. Clear spells for most with an overnight frost and a few fog patches. Minimum temperature -3°C.

Friday:

A frost to start with icy stretches. Sunny spells throughout the day and remaining largely dry for most but with scattered showers near the coasts. Feeling cold with lighter winds. Maximum temperature 7°C.

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

Sunny spells with scattered showers on Saturday. Cloudier on Sunday with a risk of rain and snow. Sunny spells with few showers on Monday. Feeling cold throughout.

[dbaloo]

Hope nobody suffered any damage over the last few days..been a much better and calmer day thankfully.

Wonder whats coming next

[mattrout92]

GFS 12Z is very good for snow on Sunday:

the UKMO 12Z is at the opposite end of the spectrum however and has the low nowhere near us:

it just clips the South Coast of England, and would not have much precipitation associated with it

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

4 hours ago, Marcus_surfer said:

It will probably trend south on the next run

You could very well be right there.

Id say a more developed feature may have increased preciptation but may make this more marginal for the south and west (low ground). Im sceptical at this stage with a south west flow ahead of the preciptiation for those near the coast I wouldnt get your hopes up.

[LJ1224]

 

[mattrout92]

ECM keeping with the more Northerly track Saturday into Sunday

 

 

Edited January 21, 2021 by mattrout92

[Jayfromcardiff]

42 minutes ago, mattrout92 said:

ECM keeping with the more Northerly track Saturday into Sunday

 

 

Some pretty heavy snow going by those charts. Snow would arrive at a decent time too for once.

[goosey007]

28 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Some pretty heavy snow going by those charts. Snow would arrive at a decent time too for once.

what are we looking at Jay...2 to3 hours of heavy snow in south east wales best case scenario? gfs has it hanging around most of the day ?? ukmo had it yesterday now nothing odd one ....ill go with ECM. be interesting to see the fax charts.

if so expect a yellow met office warning tomorrow at 11am declaring 2-5cm widely and up to 10cm on high ground.......if not I expect thiey think it will go south however looks as though thees enough lee way if it did they way its shaping to come across wales.........if only it stalled! lol

Edited January 21, 2021 by goosey007

[Jayfromcardiff]

5 minutes ago, goosey007 said:

what are we looking at Jay...2 to3 hours of heavy snow in south east wales best case scenario? gfs has it hanging around most of the day ?? ukmo had it yesterday now nothing odd one ....ill go with ECM. be interesting to see the fax charts.

if so expect a yellow met office warning tomorrow at 11am declaring 2-5cm widely and up to 10cm on high ground.......if not I expect thiey think it will go south however looks as though thees enough lee way if it did they way its shaping to come across wales.........if only it stalled! lol

I've got a feeling it's going to stall like the GFS is showing. I just think we'll all do well for once. I'm going for 2-7cm widely with 10-15cm on higher ground.

[goosey007]

13 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

I've got a feeling it's going to stall like the GFS is showing. I just think we'll all do well for once. I'm going for 2-7cm widely with 10-15cm on higher ground.

love the optimism! like dawn of the dead in the model thread

 

[Jayfromcardiff]

Just now, goosey007 said:

love the optimism! like dawn of the dead in the model thread

 

Better to be optimistic I guess and if it fails oh well there's more important things in life anyway.

[mattrout92]

Extended UKV is dreadful this evening, this is the closest the precipitation gets before it fades out to nothing:

Thankfully it's the odd one out with all the other models getting it further North. We should know more tomorrow when the Harmonie and Euro4 come into range!

[Jayfromcardiff]

6 minutes ago, mattrout92 said:

Extended UKV is dreadful this evening, this is the closest the precipitation gets before it fades out to nothing:

Thankfully it's the odd one out with all the other models getting it further North. We should know more tomorrow when the Harmonie and Euro4 come into range!

Watch the UKV be correct. Fingers crossed it's not though.