Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards

[JamesM]

Light wet snow giving a light wet covering. Just lacking the intensity required. 

[Hairy Celt]

So it's all going tits up again? <snorts>

Been an absolutely baltic day here, bone dry, breath freezing and whipped away as soon as it leaves your chapped lips. A good day to be out if you have enough layers and the gaps are all sealed up. 

[LomondSnowstorm]

I mean again it's not quite as nice as this morning (although I think Thursday morning is worth flagging up for a possible big frontal snowfall and later Thursday further north) but still gets the job done:

[Ravelin]

Not watched it fall or checked it's consistency but there's a covering from the showers that have finally started to pass over us. Currently 0.8/-0.2 so probably marginal and altitude playing its part again.

[Northernlights]

Very cold , dry day here too but ideal for playing musical chairs with the cattle in order to do a partial mucking out of their folds ,Fabulous icy ground outside folds made scraping up spillages easy as dung does not stick. Thats allowed the troughs to function till the spring. Removing this wet dung also helps to keep the cattle cleaner. Tired to night with the strong smell of ammonia all afternoon. Currently 1c and ground refreezing hard.

Edited February 2, 2021 by Northernlights

[howham]

We had snow earlier this evening.  A bit wet to settle though.  Again, a good sign.

[TinyTim]

1 hour ago, Allyw12 said:

Still rain here last time I checked, hope the models don’t backtrack too much  

Yep, it's chucking it down right now Ally.  Fingers crossed, but I'm starting to feel a little pessimistic now, whereas at the weekend it all looked rosey... oh well!  

[JoeShmoe]

The ECM 12z is epic again!

[Penicuikblizzard]

3 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

The ECM 12z is epic again!

A foot of snow for Edinburgh if that comes off it could be another Red warning

[scottishandy]

4 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

The ECM 12z is epic again!

So is that where xcweather get their figures from ?

[Benvironment]

It's been snowing non-stop pretty much all day, but at 1.3C it's not amounting to as much as it would have done if it was colder. Ain't complaining though cos I realise it's been a marginal mess for many. No idea what the depth out there is cos there appears to be more on vertical surfaces than horizontal ones

[Northernlights]

Snowing again this time from a south easterly direction with a fresh wind.

 

[JoeShmoe]

3 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

A foot of snow for Edinburgh if that comes off it could be another Red warning

-20 uppers across the sea in Norway

[Benvironment]

Oh, and just posted this on my Facebook page

=======

Sooo I've number crunched the stats from my weather station for January 21 and the headline is what you probably already knew. It's been a cold one.

The overall monthly mean temperature of of 1.4C makes it the coldest January I've recorded since moving here in 2010. It also makes it the coldest calendar month since March 2013, and the third coldest month overall behind The December to Remember (in 2010) and March 2013.

The highest temp I recorded was a cool 8.6C, and the coldest was -3.9C. These days in a winter month it's unusual to stay below 10C for the whole month! It was a snowy one too. Snow fell on 18 days, and was lying at least 1cm deep at 9am on 25 days! But some smaller patches of snow never completely melted, which means there was something icy/snowy in the garden for every day of the month

In terms of days with snow falling/lying, January 2021's total of 18/25 compares very favourably with previous Januarys as follows:

2020: 3/1

2019: 4/3

2018: 9/6

2017: 5/4

2016: 10/10

2015: 11/5

2014: 3/0

2013: 13/18

2012: 6/2

2011: 10/13

It was middlingly frosty, with a respectable 11 air frosts (days when temp dips below zero). That compares with previous Januarys as follows:

2020: 1

2019: 15

2018: 9

2017: 10

2016: 8

2015: 17

2014: 4

2013: 16

2012: 11

2011: 18

And that concludes your Lomond Hills weather report for January 2021

[Ravelin]

6 minutes ago, scottishandy said:

So is that where xcweather get their figures from ?

I'm fairly sure that XC Weather is based on the raw GFS, not the ECM.

Since all the models are changing so significantly and frequently as far as snow is concerned then they should all be taken with a pinch of salt.

[Polar Side]

23 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

The ECM 12z is epic again!

Wow!

Haven’t popped into the southeast model thread yet but will now.
Nightmare, I was on page 6 and it’s now 19 pages long! 

Edited February 2, 2021 by Polar Side

[JoeShmoe]

2 minutes ago, Polar Side said:

Wow!

Haven’t popped into the southeast model thread yet but will now.

lol, go and post that depth chart and then leave

[Polar Side]

4 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

lol, go and post that depth chart and then leave

I’m not that brave.

[Kayemill]

You guys seem to be missing out. The drifts outside are crazy!

[moffatross]

18 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

I'm fairly sure that XC Weather is based on the raw GFS, not the ECM.

Since all the models are changing so significantly and frequently as far as snow is concerned then they should all be taken with a pinch of salt.

Yes it does. The nearest (and perhaps only freely available) equivalent to XC Weather that uses the ECM instead of GFS is yr.no e.g.  

Yr - Moffat - Weather forecast

WWW.YR.NO

---

Todays weather forecast, by the hour and long term. See the forecast as a table or graph.

 

Edited February 2, 2021 by moffatross

[Geedawg]

Just been a walk and some of the drifting is about 8inch or so! No to bad for an afternoons works

[snowy owl]

Looks like continuous rain/sleety stuff here at lower level East Lothian, up on the lammermuirs it was snowing quite nicely yesterday, haven’t ventured out at all today. Fingers crossed ECM has the right way forward . 

[Hairy Celt]

21 minutes ago, Kayemill said:

You guys seem to be missing out. The drifts outside are crazy!

Crazy stuff here too! Can hardly get across the yard!

[Kayemill]

1 minute ago, Hairy Celt said:

Crazy stuff here too! Can hardly get across the yard!

Stay safe, it’s a jungle out there!

[Hairy Celt]

2 minutes ago, Frosty the Snowman said:

A thread to help your sanity

 

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/95088-model-output-discussion-everywhere-but-the-south-east/?tab=comments#comment-4413841

Nice try! The bellends will always win though.

Ah well. The way of all good things.

Edited February 2, 2021 by Hairy Celt