Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

[MattStoke]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Gfs 06z direct hit for the midlands!!its moved towards ecm!!

Relieved it’s not gone the way of the ICON. That’s what we really don’t want as it really doesn’t deliver for anyone away from the Peak District.

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Relieved it’s not gone the way of the ICON. That’s what we really don’t want as it really doesn’t deliver for anyone away from the Peak District.

Yep    as we know though  sliders always tend to move south.    looking ok at the moment 

[MattStoke]

GFS gives snow risk right down to around sea level or maybe just above but only really accumulates across the northern half of the region. 
 

I think a high risk above 100m across the north of the region. More localised elsewhere.

Edited January 28, 2021 by MattStoke

[Eskimo]

Ground temps remain above freezing throughout Saturday, hence the lack of settling snow. With situations like that, you'd need precipitation to be falling heavier than the its ability to melt to create a layer (similar to last week when rain suddenly turned to heavy snow). Once that happens, it lowers the ground temps considerably. \

The problem is, the precipitation doesn't look particularly heavy. 

Edited January 28, 2021 by Eskimo

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Wow, GFS 06Z further South

[weirpig]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Wow, GFS 06Z further South

Ill take a punt and say the band will be 50-100miles further south      

[shunthebartlett92]

Still expecting a lot of changes next 24 hours, will be intrigued to see where we are at tomorrow am!

[weirpig]

2 minutes ago, shunthebartlett92 said:

Still expecting a lot of changes next 24 hours, will be intrigued to see where we are at tomorrow am!

Yep  great to watch  Arp as it north compared to the  0z run   starts off as sleet then quickly turns to snow.

   

Edited January 28, 2021 by weirpig

[sheikhy]

Just now, weirpig said:

Yep  great to watch  Arp as it north compared to the  0z run   starts off as sleet then quickly turns to snow.

Middle ground is ecm at the moment!!!ecm was closer in terms.of snow depth in the last event!!

[shunthebartlett92]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

Yep  great to watch  Arp as it north compared to the  0z run   starts off as sleet then quickly turns to snow.

That to me suggests a very fine line between rain/sleet and snow though so as matt says, elevation will be crucial here but a slight southwards shift would benefit more of us in the mids for sure! its great we have these opportunities though, keeps it exciting!

Edited January 28, 2021 by shunthebartlett92

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, shunthebartlett92 said:

That to me suggests a very fine line between rain/sleet and snow though so as matt says, elevation will be crucial here but a slight southwards shift would benefit more of us in the mids for sure! its great we have these opportunities though, keeps it exciting!

It is  the arp  is great  stalls the front over us

[MattStoke]

That leaves the UKV as the only model with a more southerly system.

Only just coming into range of the Arome and Euro4, so can’t really tell how far north they will get with it.

[weirpig]

4 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

That leaves the UKV as the only model with a more southerly system.

Only just coming into range of the Arome and Euro4, so can’t really tell how far north they will get with it.

Yep   latest NNM 05    turns to snow over the midlands   no rain or sleet   by far the best of the lot  imo 

       

Edited January 28, 2021 by weirpig

[weirpig]

weather warning  sat  10- 15 cm over 200m  west mids

upto 7cm   low levels 

Edited January 28, 2021 by weirpig

[Selliso]

Warning out for Saturday 

[sheikhy]

4 minutes ago, weirpig said:

weather warning  sat  10- 15 cm over 200m  west mids

upto 7c   low levels 

Get in!!!leicester in there as well!!i will take 7cms anyday!!they also mention the uncertainty whether it goes even further north and east

[MattStoke]

Only just coming into range of the higher resolution models, so can’t really tell how far north they will get with it but here’s what they show so far.

Harmonie

 

Euro4

 

 

[MattStoke]

18 minutes ago, Selliso said:

Warning out for Saturday 

3-7cm to low levels. 10-15cm above 200m. I’m at 146m and have many areas above 200m within walking distance.

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Only just coming into range of the higher resolution models, so can’t really tell how far north they will get with it but here’s what they show so far.

Harmonie

 

Euro4

 

 

beat me to it   Harmonie looks good.

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Only just coming into range of the higher resolution models, so can’t really tell how far north they will get with it but here’s what they show so far.

Harmonie

 

Euro4

 

 

Harmonie looks pretty good!!maybe a little nudge further north will do!!just to add ukv was atrocious for last sunday!!from a model that the metoffice regard highly am sorry it needs taking a look at cos it was so far south even at the last minute for last sunday!!!

[weirpig]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Harmonie looks pretty good!!maybe a little nudge further north will do!!just to add ukv was atrocious for last sunday!!from a model that the metoffice regard highly am sorry it needs taking a look at cos it was so far south even at the last minute for last sunday!!!

Harmonie  was still travelling north at that point   looks to be a direct hit 

[MattStoke]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Harmonie looks pretty good!!maybe a little nudge further north will do!!just to add ukv was atrocious for last sunday!!from a model that the metoffice regard highly am sorry it needs taking a look at cos it was so far south even at the last minute for last sunday!!!

UKV accumulation charts seem to be really poor as well. It showed no snow accumulating here last week. I saw loads.

[GokouD]

25 minutes ago, weirpig said:

weather warning  sat  10- 15 cm over 200m  west mids

upto 7cm   low levels 

I'm at 160m and right in the middle of the warning zone! What can go wrong...

[Eskimo]

If the snow happens across the Midlands, I'll put this Winter down as being in the top 5 at least. My favourites are (in order) 2009, 2013, 2018, 2010.

[weirpig]

Just now, GokouD said:

I'm at 160m and right in the middle of the warning zone! What can go wrong...

Lol  its telford.

Seriously  though it also mentions   20cm in high parts of Shropshire.   i would have thought stipper stones etc      you look in a good place.