South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

[Paul Sherman]

2 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

This regional thread is far too big - when some members may get heavy snow and others will get nothing but rain its pretty easy that this covers an area far too big

It really isnt Steve - Its not helped at the moment by a Warm Front that is literally changing the temperature from 10c to 3c over the course of a few miles and its ground to a halt atm. Cant really help the synoptics and when we tried to change the regionals a few years back it created uproar

[Freeze]

2 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

This regional thread is far too big - when some members may get heavy snow and others will get nothing but rain its pretty easy that this covers an area far too big

I agree I think the south coast should have its own regional thread as its always completely different here to further inland and around london

[BLS]

@Paul Sherman think me in headcorn area has any chance tomorrow or Saturday I can’t quite get my head around it and I trust you more than most weather websites

[steveinsussex]

1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:

It really isnt Steve - Its not helped at the moment by a Warm Front that is literally changing the temperature from 10c to 3c over the course of a few miles and its ground to a halt atm. Cant really help the synoptics and when we tried to change the regionals a few years back it created uproar

 I was here years ago when it was split to the SE and then to EA - it was much better.

 

Having been born and raised in Cambridge prior to moving to Sussex there is no way Id have said Cambridge was in the SE!

I think ill avoid the thread the next couple of days

[Paul Sherman]

1 minute ago, Spraggyy said:

@Paul Sherman think me in headcorn area has any chance tomorrow or Saturday I can’t quite get my head around it and I trust you more than most weather websites

Saturday as well for Maidstone I think.

I would not rule out snow in the precip tomorrow but accumulation wise you would not have to go far anyway to get to Meopham for example. Fine margins and marginal tomorrow yet again

[Paul Sherman]

Just now, steveinsussex said:

 I was here years ago when it was split to the SE and then to EA - it was much better.

 

Having been born and raised in Cambridge prior to moving to Sussex there is no way Id have said Cambridge was in the SE!

I think ill avoid the thread the next couple of days

Ok thats your choice I suppose but its better in here than the Mod Thread - hahahaha good luck in there

[NewEra21]

5 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

This regional thread is far too big - when some members may get heavy snow and others will get nothing but rain its pretty easy that this covers an area far too big

Yeah at times it feels like EA should have a separate thread, I mean from Norfolk to the south coast there's just far too much variation over an area of that size. Especially in winter!

[stainesbloke]

5 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

This regional thread is far too big - when some members may get heavy snow and others will get nothing but rain its pretty easy that this covers an area far too big

Makes it more interesting with the variations, imho. Maybe nowhere will get snow? At 3°C, it wouldn’t stick for long anyway. 

[TommyB]

Evening all,

Currently 9c in St Leonards, don't like our chances for snow or even sleet here. I guess you never know tomorrow 

[paget]

Sorry for my temper tantrum posts!! I sounded like that spoilt child from Charlie & the chocolate factory!! 
 
I want snow (bangs fists!!) 

I get that the conditions have to be so right for it to happen, just seems like it never falls on Farnham!! 
 

Sue x 

 

 

[staplehurst]

You can see the difference between today and tomorrow looking at forecast soundings and the changes in the structure of the air above the ground as the front occludes and the main thrust of milder air aloft slides away to the south. Note the surface temperatures are very similar on both days east of the warm front (i.e. low single figures).

Reasonably deep layer of air >0C today, meaning snow falling aloft melts to rain on the way down. By tomorrow, the air will gradually cool aloft, allowing snow to survive to close to ground level - but still melting right near ground level. Hence if you're on a hill (i.e. 200m in this example) you have a much better chance of seeing snow, and if precipitation gets heavy enough through evaporative cooling then that'll bring the chance of some wet snow down to lower levels.

Probably going to struggle to settle given the already wet ground, but could see a slight covering on hills in particular, more especially north of London where air cools aloft earlier while the frontal band is still active before it decays through the evening and clears southwards.

[Paul Sherman]

But if the cold beats the warm back like the UKMO are predicting on Saturday then surely all the South East and East Anglia are in the cold sector and its win win for the area.

I have put the split to Paul and the team before and we tried to split it way back around 2013 i think but the general consensus was to leave it be

[smith25]

With all the rain I've had today I'm doubting I'll be getting much snow in my part of essex tomorrow.

[Paul Sherman]

4 minutes ago, staplehurst said:

You can see the difference between today and tomorrow looking at forecast soundings and the changes in the structure of the air above the ground as the front occludes and the main thrust of milder air aloft slides away to the south. Note the surface temperatures are very similar on both days east of the warm front (i.e. low single figures).

Reasonably deep layer of air >0C today, meaning snow falling aloft melts to rain on the way down. By tomorrow, the air will gradually cool aloft, allowing snow to survive to close to ground level - but still melting right near ground level. Hence if you're on a hill (i.e. 200m in this example) you have a much better chance of seeing snow, and if precipitation gets heavy enough through evaporative cooling then that'll bring the chance of some wet snow down to lower levels.

Probably going to struggle to settle given the already wet ground, but could see a slight covering on hills in particular, more especially north of London where air cools aloft earlier while the frontal band is still active before it decays through the evening and clears southwards.

Whats your take on Saturday Dan ? Better chance of coverings to lower levels I would imagine

[Freeze]

I go back on what I said, splitting the thread up would just cause confusion and it's great to talk about variation in the weather in our area otherwise what would there be to talk about. 

[Vesuvius]

11 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

Yeah at times it feels like EA should have a separate thread, I mean from Norfolk to the south coast there's just far too much variation over an area of that size. Especially in winter!

I get that but from a personal point of view I didn’t know which thread to go in when we split them. I was East Anglia but I’m nearer Kent than North Essex.  People talking about snow in North Norfolk seemed miles away to me. I do remember though someone from Kent telling me to get over the river when I posted in the SE thread !

[MAF]

well at the end of the day we are a community, so splitting up the thread would be like splitting up people who enjoy the company of everyone else here

[Daniel*]

Yes I remember it split up before maybe 2013 and 2018 when a lot of snow interest was happening trouble is when it was over the East Anglia thread was dead! And well we’re not busiest at best of times, we’re much better together it’s important I know what weather is doing in Paul’s part of world it drifts my way down Thames. Norfolk seems pretty far away of London and weather can be quite different but it’s interesting to see how weather differs often the cold weather and snow gets to them first.

[MAF]

oh, and i am happy to talk weather with anyone, regardless of location  

[Vesuvius]

48 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

I am usually quite conservative but tomorrow really has ramped up a few gears, can only imagine the models are seeing the Occlusion being stronger as the Low exits south eastwards towards Paris and NE France tomorrow afternoon. I always look for cross model agreement in these situation but would not be surprised to see 1-5cm of Snow under heavier precip along the Occluded Front tomorrow around 15z.

We have about 7 Models on board now with the sweet spot probably Herts, Cambs, West Suffolk, NW Essex, Peterborough areas and anywhere else with height in the SE

Just look at ECM, Arpege and ICON Below an eye opener for sure

 

You have misspelt Rayleigh Paul !

[Paul Sherman]

3 minutes ago, Vesuvius said:

You have misspelt Rayleigh Paul !

 Oh the Hills of Rayleigh and Ricky

Another point about Sussex and Coastal Kent being a vital part is in the summer its always where we look to in Plume situations where lightning is often first seen coming up from France so to split that away again would be a travesty.

Like Mick I think everyone enjoys the community part of the forum and Daniel also makes a good point about the lack of posters in Norfolk meaning it got quite dead in there with just the TOD (Triangle of Doom) having their nightly meetings lol

[North Downs Snowboarder]

It does seem extraordinary that tomorrow the temperature location differentials will be so acute that some of us will be playing steel drums, drinking iced Lilt and wearing shorts, whereas their cousins 30 miles away will be playing ice hockey (socially distanced in household bubbles, obvs) and going downhill skiing.

 

Well that's Britain for you

[paget]

I also remember the split, sexit?? 

i must say I feel a bit on the edge here on the Surrey/Hampshire border but I didn’t like the split, I like it the way it is even we we are miles apart!! 
 

Sue x 

[paget]

3 minutes ago, North Downs Snowboarder said:

It does seem extraordinary that tomorrow the temperature location differentials will be so acute that some of us will be playing steel drums, drinking iced Lilt and wearing shorts, whereas their cousins 30 miles away will be playing ice hockey (socially distanced in household bubbles, obvs) and going downhill skiing.

 

Well that's Britain for you

I LOVE lilt, remember when that was invented! It was sooo tropical  

[Floatylight]

35 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

It really isnt Steve - Its not helped at the moment by a Warm Front that is literally changing the temperature from 10c to 3c over the course of a few miles and its ground to a halt atm. Cant really help the synoptics and when we tried to change the regionals a few years back it created uproar

Trouble is,where would you put colchester?

Few yrs back,  I had to use both