Ice Days - long runs and singularities

[A Face like Thunder]

On 13/01/2021 at 10:56, A Face like Thunder said:

According to Philip Eden, February 1956 was one of the coldest months in the twentieth century. Temperatures remained well below zero from 31st Jan to 3rd Feb and from 18th to 25th Feb inclusive. J H Brazell - in his book on London weather - reported that the mean temperature (F) in the capital was 31.9 (-8.0 different to average), and the maximum temperature on 1st was 24.3 (8 below zero). I vaguely remember this cold spell, and in particular the disastrous consequences as a 6-year old of not being able to use the one school loo because it had frozen over!

Eden reports that in early 1963, temperatures remained below zero 'for long periods, particularly in central, southern and eastern parts of England'. Mean temperature in Jan 1963 in London (Brazell) was 29.7F (2.3 below zero and 9.8 below average), with a maximum temperature on the 24th of 27.0 (5 below zero). 

1947 - and Eden reports that the temperature remained below zero continuously from 11th to 23rd Feb in large parts of the UK. Mean temperature in Feb was 30.0  and maximum on the 17th was 27.7.

1940 - another 'ice age' winter and the temperature remained below zero for lengthy periods, with a mean of 31.4 in January and a maximum temperature of 27.7 on the 20th Jan.  

Coincidentally, Paul Simons reports in today's Times on the very cold winter of 1940 and the rare phenomenon on 27th January of an ice storm in southern regions of England, when rain fell and froze into ice the instant it hit anything solid. Trees were caked in ice like frozen waterfalls and some split and fell to pieces, telegraph poles collapsed under the weight of cables draped in ice, birds froze to branches and people were trapped in their homes as doors iced over. The country became paralysed as roads and pavements became skating rinks and railway points and canals froze. Despite this, the rare ice storm was also seen as a thing of great beauty, particularly when combined with the snow which already lay in abundance on the ground.  

Simons makes the suggestion that this week could produce something similar with a battle between mild and cold air. I recall a Friday morning about 4-5 years ago when ice was a major problem here in Cheshire, pavements became ice rinks and I narrowly avoided being hit by a large branch as it parted company from the main tree. I'm rather hoping this won't be repeated this week! 

[hillbilly]

49 minutes ago, A Face like Thunder said:

Coincidentally, Paul Simons reports in today's Times on the very cold winter of 1940 and the rare phenomenon on 27th January of an ice storm in southern regions of England, when rain fell and froze into ice the instant it hit anything solid. Trees were caked in ice like frozen waterfalls and some split and fell to pieces, telegraph poles collapsed under the weight of cables draped in ice, birds froze to branches and people were trapped in their homes as doors iced over. The country became paralysed as roads and pavements became skating rinks and railway points and canals froze. Despite this, the rare ice storm was also seen as a thing of great beauty, particularly when combined with the snow which already lay in abundance on the ground.  

Simons makes the suggestion that this week could produce something similar with a battle between mild and cold air. I recall a Friday morning about 4-5 years ago when ice was a major problem here in Cheshire, pavements became ice rinks and I narrowly avoided being hit by a large branch as it parted company from the main tree. I'm rather hoping this won't be repeated this week! 

Ice Storm - January 1940 - YouTube

 

[Terminal Moraine]

Ice days are  nowhere near as frequent here now as they used to be in the 70s and 80s although most years produce one or two. The decline in ice days ( an Ice Day is counted as one where the maximum temperature is below 0.0c in a 24 hr period ending at 0900) is highlighted by the average annual number from 1978 to 1987 at 15.6 compared to an average of 2.4 between 1997-2008 and 3.7 from 2011-2020.

With regard to a calendar year 1986 had the most at 31 followed by 28 in 2010 ( 2010 was  a marked anomaly in an otherwise long run of years with few ice days ), 26 in 1979 and 1985, 21 in 1996 and 18 in 1981 and 2013.

February 1986 had by far the most in any calendar month with 26, including 20 consecutive days from the 4th-23rd which was easily the longest run of consecutive Ice Days on a record beginning in 1977. Other calendar months with frequent Ice Days were January 1979 with 13, December 1981 and December 2010 with 12 and February 1979 and January 2010 with 11.

Apart from February 1986 the longest spells of consecutive Ice Days were 11 from January 23rd to February 2nd 1996 and 10 from January 9th-18th 1987 and February 3rd-12th 1991. This century, so far, the longest spell has been 9 days from January 16th-24th 2013.

 

[A Face like Thunder]

Ah yes, the Lorna Doone winter, I remember it well! 

“It was a time when it was impossible to milk a cow for icicles, or for a man to shave some of his beard without blunting his razor on a hard grey ice.” This was the terrible winter told by R.D. Blackmore in Lorna Doone, the story of a clan of outlaws who terrorised Exmoor. In this bleak landscape, farmer John Ridd falls in love with Lorna Doone, whom he rescues in a blizzard. “The snow drove in, a great white billow, as high as a barn and as broad as a house. And all the while from the smothering sky, more and more fiercely at every blast, came the pelting, pitiless arrows, winged with murky white, and pointed with the barbs of frost.”

With acknowledgements to Paul Simons in The Times

 

[damianslaw]

16 hours ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

There was an easing of the extreme cold in that period but only one daye exceded 4 c at my station at Winfrith between 26th nov  and. The 27th Dec.  . In Dorset Dec 2010 was colder than Dec 1990.

There was a milder spell between 9 and 17 December and a rapid thaw overnight 9th into the 10th. Remember the weekend 11/12th being quite mild here, temps up to about 6 or 7 degrees, well it felt mild after the freeze. Temps then dropped day by day from 13th, 7, 6, 5, 4 and a collapse on the 17th to 0 degrees. 

[damianslaw]

9 hours ago, Terminal Moraine said:

Ice days are  nowhere near as frequent here now as they used to be in the 70s and 80s although most years produce one or two. The decline in ice days ( an Ice Day is counted as one where the maximum temperature is below 0.0c in a 24 hr period ending at 0900) is highlighted by the average annual number from 1978 to 1987 at 15.6 compared to an average of 2.4 between 1997-2008 and 3.7 from 2011-2020.

With regard to a calendar year 1986 had the most at 31 followed by 28 in 2010 ( 2010 was  a marked anomaly in an otherwise long run of years with few ice days ), 26 in 1979 and 1985, 21 in 1996 and 18 in 1981 and 2013.

February 1986 had by far the most in any calendar month with 26, including 20 consecutive days from the 4th-23rd which was easily the longest run of consecutive Ice Days on a record beginning in 1977. Other calendar months with frequent Ice Days were January 1979 with 13, December 1981 and December 2010 with 12 and February 1979 and January 2010 with 11.

Apart from February 1986 the longest spells of consecutive Ice Days were 11 from January 23rd to February 2nd 1996 and 10 from January 9th-18th 1987 and February 3rd-12th 1991. This century, so far, the longest spell has been 9 days from January 16th-24th 2013.

 

Surprised you didn't see a longer run early January 2010, say 12 days from 1-12th, that was a lengthy cold period.

Remember the cold of late Jan 96 very well, brought on by a bitter easterly wind, enjoyed that spell, it came on the back of the freezing end to December 95. I preferred winter 95-96 far more than 90-91, brought much more snow here, and many more colder days, though the period 3-10 Feb 91 was very cold we only had about 2 inches of snow.

[Terminal Moraine]

You're right that was a lengthy cold spell but, here, what came close to being a  13 day spell of Ice Days, from the 1st-13th, was broken by a max' of 0.3c on the 2nd and 0.2c on the 10th.

[damianslaw]

14 hours ago, Terminal Moraine said:

You're right that was a lengthy cold spell but, here, what came close to being a  13 day spell of Ice Days, from the 1st-13th, was broken by a max' of 0.3c on the 2nd and 0.2c on the 10th.

So only just missed out on 13 day spell which is very impressive. Whilst we didn't see the same depth as cold as Dec 2010, I rate the mid Dec 09 to mid Jan 10 higher on account of more snow.

[Terminal Moraine]

The earliest Ice Day I've recorded at this site ( since 1977 ) is November 21st 1993 with a max' of -1.2c. This would have been beaten in 1965 though when my records from a nearby but  lower site show a max' of -1.1c  on  the 15th.

The latest recorded Ice Day was April 24th 1981 with a max' of -0.3c. This is the latest date by some margin as the second latest date is March 24th 2013 with a max' of -1.4c.  The 25th, 26th and 27th March 2013 came very close to Ice Days with maxima of 0.1c, 0.5c and 0.2c respectively.

 

[Relativistic]

The ice day on 1st March 2018 was a special one for central England as it broke the March record (-1.2C max; previous record was -0.7C on the 6th March 1942).

[damianslaw]

8 hours ago, Relativistic said:

The ice day on 1st March 2018 was a special one for central England as it broke the March record (-1.2C max; previous record was -0.7C on the 6th March 1942).

Thought March 1 1986 might have been an ice day, that was very cold with widespread snow I think for many, or it may have been more reserved for SE parts.

[hillbilly]

24 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Thought March 1 1986 might have been an ice day, that was very cold with widespread snow I think for many, or it may have been more reserved for SE parts.

1986 Cold and unsettled with strong winds later in the month. The biting cold easterlies of February persisted for the first few days. There were blizzard across England on the 1st. Aviemore recorded -16C on the morning of the 1st, and over much of the south and east temperatures were beneath freezing all day.                           Trevor Harleys account from March 1986

[damianslaw]

2 minutes ago, hillbilly said:

1986 Cold and unsettled with strong winds later in the month. The biting cold easterlies of February persisted for the first few days. There were blizzard across England on the 1st. Aviemore recorded -16C on the morning of the 1st, and over much of the south and east temperatures were beneath freezing all day.                           Trevor Harleys account from March 1986

There was a very cold 3 months back to back in 1986, unusually so... would be interested to know whether it came on the back of SSW.. April 1986 finished below 6 degrees, many a milder January!

[hillbilly]

31 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

There was a very cold 3 months back to back in 1986, unusually so... would be interested to know whether it came on the back of SSW.. April 1986 finished below 6 degrees, many a milder January!

Yes a very cool period with November 1985,February,April,August and September 1986 are all the coldest respective months to this day,even March,June and July were cool!

[hillbilly]

38 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

There was a very cold 3 months back to back in 1986, unusually so... would be interested to know whether it came on the back of SSW.. April 1986 finished below 6 degrees, many a milder January!

Historic Weather - November and Winter 1985-86 - YouTube

It wont let me post the link but if you find this on youtube its a great watch by Scott Richards 

Edited January 20, 2021 by hillbilly

[Relativistic]

4 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Thought March 1 1986 might have been an ice day, that was very cold with widespread snow I think for many, or it may have been more reserved for SE parts.

 

4 hours ago, hillbilly said:

1986 Cold and unsettled with strong winds later in the month. The biting cold easterlies of February persisted for the first few days. There were blizzard across England on the 1st. Aviemore recorded -16C on the morning of the 1st, and over much of the south and east temperatures were beneath freezing all day.                           Trevor Harleys account from March 1986

 

CET max for 1st March 1986 was 2.0C. Perhaps the northern half of the CET zone was milder. The mean was -0.2C.