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Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please only use this thread to comment specifically about the model output. If you want to have a moan, ramp or to chat more generally about the models, the weather and so on, please use the winter chat and moans thread. 

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sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted
12 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Two possible snow events in 5 days on the GFS 12 hrs run.

The day 5 looks similar to the UKMO .  After that a period of cold conditions under the slack high pressure before more drama begins.

To be honest I’m much more interested in this 5 day period as it’s closeby and ironically could provide more snow for some areas than the long winded later saga which continues to be plagued by shortwave phasing dramas .

 

How is the snow event for the eastern britain looking on thursday friday on the gfs?same as arpege?

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Bogman Community Regular

Bogman

Posted
  • Location: Codicote, Hertfordshire
  • Location: Codicote, Hertfordshire
Posted
4 minutes ago, AdrianHull said:

"Pumpathon" can this term please be used in meteorological terminology from now on ? 

Might try a "pumpathon" tonight. 

Monday's are normally quiet..............

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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted

Colder air racing down the UK as we post

lastsnowradar_uk_bws9.gif

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Froze were the Days Accomplished

Froze were the Days

Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
Posted (edited)

By the sounds of it the GFS 0z is the best op run of the day (not often you can say that of recent times)...slowly getting worse as the day goes on, will be interesting to see the 12z in full by the year 2525 at this rate, if man is still alive? after all this model watching I won't be.

Whilst we're waiting for the GFS (Go Fckin Slow) here is the latest CFS at Day10

 

cfs-0-240.png

Edited by Froze were the Days
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weirpig Maestro

weirpig

Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
Posted
5 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

How is the snow event for the eastern britain looking on thursday friday on the gfs?same as arpege?

Gfsp  is very good for snowfall across many parts of England   very much a evolving situation   Thursday  Friday 

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sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted
1 minute ago, weirpig said:

Gfsp  is very good for snowfall across many parts of England   very much a evolving situation   Thursday  Friday 

Was that not the 06z mate?

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Weathizard Accomplished

Weathizard

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Posted

Simultaneous GFS and ECM? That ever happened before? GFS only at t48 so it should come out at very similar times to the ECM, I seem to remember a few moons ago the GFS didn’t come out at all for one of the runs but not sure I’ve ever known them out at similar times.

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

UKMO 12z yesterday vs today.

image.thumb.png.a223ad1bd282c9dec0869e18d2db807f.pngimage.thumb.png.d0094004f302634b88ab91f95cf88452.png 

Anymore adjustments like that we'll be looking East rather than NW for our block 

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Froze were the Days Accomplished

Froze were the Days

Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
Posted
1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Simultaneous GFS and ECM? That ever happened before? GFS only at t48 so it should come out at very similar times to the ECM, I seem to remember a few moons ago the GFS didn’t come out at all for one of the runs but not sure I’ve ever known them out at similar times.

According to Paul it's come out (see last page)...we just can't view it at the moment for some reason.

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Troubleatmill Community Regular

Troubleatmill

Posted
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, warm sunny summers,
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

According to Paul it's come out (see last page)...we just can't view it at the moment for some reason.

Crawling out on wetter:

6554b6be8c0d829a8bf63ae0c82cf121_link.pn Wetterzentrale - Top Karten - GFS Europe 12Z

WWW.WETTERZENTRALE.DE
Wetterkarten GFS Europe 12Z

GFSOPEU12_78_1.png

Edited by Nicholas B
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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
3 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

According to Paul it's come out (see last page)...we just can't view it at the moment for some reason.

 

6ED7D791-945D-4624-89B4-0EF887C1D2E7.png

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sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted
1 minute ago, MKN said:

12z GFS doesn't go for much snowfall Thurs into Friday.

Think the high resolution runs will hopefully have a better handle of it but im not expecting much to be fair!!a lot needs to go right for us!

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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted

GFS for Friday, I get the feeling this will be the last of the 0c isotherm we see for a while with the slider incoming, east looking cold.

spacer.png

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Froze were the Days Accomplished

Froze were the Days

Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
Posted
1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Nice sharp ridge

90114090-2B9B-4448-BA28-3AC6662A59E2.png

Horrible big heights to the south east...looks a mess at that range.

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, warrenb said:

170 almost Barlett

Where???

 

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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