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Model output discussion 24/01/21


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Ponteland
  • Location: Ponteland

If my memory serves more correctly back in the sixties, these battleground situations usually went the cold way, times are different now and I have decided to throw a coin in the air and it has come down decisively for cold!

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Just glancing through the gefs 06z diagrams for the 850.s.it looks like the 0c line will struggle to get north the border.

Further north stays on the cold side according to these.3 locations below,

N,Scotland                                                     The borders                                                Warks.

206377860_nscot.thumb.gif.a2ba6c327b489998d79cb665803c16dc.gifborders.thumb.gif.76330c432aa9ab01a6db400b8561a29a.gifwarks.thumb.gif.85dece92e1d18b2f8d982b0cf74ee342.gif

A good illustration of this pattern,colder air to the north never going far. 

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
5 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

image.thumb.png.4d56095dd4e569d68a904c4a760b3d35.png

classic channel low?

No cold air in place, it will likely start wet until the cold air comes south.

Would need the previous low to be further south to stand a decent chance.

image.thumb.png.231f642e5881c16e909d09762bca6c14.png

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

The Low on the ICON is following a similar pattern to this mornings UKMO and ECM.

Just a trend at the moment but very interesting. Pointless looking to much into the details at this range but 850s on ICON show the boundary across the southern half of the UK.

ICON 850s...

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00Z UKMO 500s

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00z EC 500s

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The models certainly keeping us on our toes at the moment! Await the rest of the 12zs with interest.

 

 

 

Edited by chris55
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

UKMO and GFS T120, nothing special for UK, GFS with more interest, but that low out west should pump up some heights somewhere;

EAE212ED-A434-4A78-8A7C-13C0801C9815.thumb.gif.b64dac30d62491da5967c6b251f6f0d9.gifF21D9AF3-2A2D-4B6B-9685-E18D851D3178.thumb.png.32355c1dac8c382001d1b81c8a23c197.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge

Back to the chase again after today’s unfortunate non-event around here. UKMO 12z at t144 looks promising!

284B7CE0-F5F5-49AB-8CAB-EAE2495CE8DC.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

That UKMO chart has peaked my interests very much!! 

Edited by Snowman.
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Posted
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, warm sunny summers,
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
1 minute ago, Notty said:

GFS T+138

06z

image.thumb.png.1e82abf686f5d0f47445bd5c4cf7ea4a.png

12z

image.thumb.png.739801cb7bd2391ab0872d0637ea61e8.png

Not very alike !

Yeah I looked at that, quite remarkable! At 138 just goes to show how things change at very short notice sometimes!

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Just now, northwestsnow said:

UKMO 144 looks an Easterly...?

Does indeed ridge building in the Atlantic as well

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

6z Jet vs 12z 

image.thumb.png.b795d6fa02db08c0bd9b722580284fc9.png  image.thumb.png.2fd0ae006ade08ec6fb2705b283e28e2.png

Flatter and dipping SE. More sliders?

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