Matt H

Hello, I hope everyone is well. This is the first time I’ve posted in a while and the outlook for Christmas is looking increasingly exciting. A fantastic GFS 18z run this evening and I hope that the trend continues tomorrow.

ECM 12z looks interesting at t192.

Looks like colder weather might be trying to make a comeback then. Hopefully we can squeeze one last decent cold spell out of this winter before spring properly sets in.

Parallel run is a stonker. There definitely seems to be a growing signal for an easterly during the first week of March now.

Interesting GFS 12z this afternoon. Another notable cold spell is definitely possible during early March!

If there is a late season cold spell, I hope it comes in the form of p10 as this would certainly be an impressive way to end the winter.

I haven’t posted much recently but I’d personally welcome some warmer weather turning up soon as I’d love to be able to spend some more time outdoors. I was hoping for a decent snow event before the winter is over, and that may still happen, but in the meantime I’ll happily enjoy an early taste of spring if these charts verify. Just to add, I’ve thoroughly enjoyed posting on here during the winter months and I’m so glad that I joined the forum back in November as this hobby has kept me going during the lockdown when there’s been little else to do and it has been a great season of model watching overall.

I was going to have a break from model watching but the ECM 12z at t216 has definitely drawn me back in again. The chase for the next easterly begins here.

GFS, GFS(p) and GEM 12z runs are all showing the possibility of a snow event next Monday. Arpege 12z is showing a snow event as early as Sunday. GFS: GFS(p): GEM: Arpege:

A summary of the recent cold spell here in Cambridge. Unfortunately it has been a complete non-event once again here. Hope everyone has had a lovely week in the snow though, I’ve enjoyed seeing everyone’s pictures and videos.

The pub run has a decent snow event on Sunday/Monday.

GFS 12z has a fantastic snow event next Monday. It shows what’s possible with this setup even if we don’t manage to develop another easterly.

The milder period has virtually disappeared on the GEFS 18z ensemble suite. The mean now only ‘recovers’ to -5C by the 13th February where previously it rose above 0C. Interesting times ahead for sure.

Decent JMA 12z out to t192. It would only take a small shift north of the ridge to be an excellent chart.

Update from Cambridge. Hope everyone has enjoyed their snow today.

How the ‘mild blip’ started vs how it’s going.

ECM 12z is looking fantastic at t168.

GFS 12z is an absolute stonker out to t216, it’s easily one of the best runs I’ve seen this winter so far at this timeframe. Wow!

The day 10 mean is seriously impressive.

From t6 out to t384 the GFS 18z is an absolute beauty. Terrible evening for mildies.

Quite a few people in here would save themselves an awful lot of hassle and upset if they just stuck to radar watching instead of stressing out over the unreliable weather apps.

The pub run is an absolute stonker. Model watching is heaven for coldies at the moment.

Look at the cluster of runs down to -15C by the 16th February as well.

Good luck everyone. I hope that as many people as possible are able to see a decent amount of snow this week, especially those down in Kent that haven’t seen much so far this winter.

Solid GEFS 12z ensemble mean out to t168. Some of the individual runs are going to be fantastic.