Matt H

The UKMO long-range update is holding firm for coldies today! Here are the highlights: “Monday 1 Feb - Wednesday 10 Feb: Towards the end of this period, we may see high pressure build over the north of the UK, bringing colder temperatures and wintry outbreaks. Wednesday 10 Feb - Wednesday 24 Feb: Although confidence at this range is low, current signals suggest that high pressure could be positioned over the north of the UK during this period. This would likely bring wintry outbreaks and colder than average temperatures to northern areas, as well as increasing the likelihood of more widespread cold spells.” Here’s to some decent 12z upgrades later this afternoon, this could be our best shot at a prolonged cold spell this winter. Link to the full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/long-range-forecast

Definitely beats the poor attempt at an easterly earlier in the month. No messing around with marginal uppers this time if things go our way!

The CMA 12z is clearly following the UKMO long-range update today. “Towards the end of this period, we may see high pressure build over the north of the UK, bringing colder temperatures and wintry outbreaks.”

A fairly positive set of GEFS 12z ensembles so far with a decent cluster of runs diving down to around -10C during the first week of February. Hopefully we can build on this further tomorrow!

GEM 12z is very close to being fantastic as well. There’s a lovely deep cold pool lurking to our NE.

Beautiful run, hope it’s on to something.

ICON 12z looks like it might be going for the snow event on Sunday. Certainly looks positive out to t120.

ECM 12z looks great at t120!

I hope that p6 is on the money this afternoon.It’s not hard to find it on the ensemble graph though unfortunately.

I know it’s over a week away but the GEM 12z is showing the sort of snow event that I’m dreaming about having at the moment. One day!

Beautiful ECM 12z ensemble mean at t120/t144. t120: t144:

After sleet and patchy light snow all day, things have finally kicked off here with some huge flakes falling now. Hope everyone has had a brilliant day!

The latest CFS run is still going for an easterly by the 8th February. It has been very consistent with this theme recently and with the recent trends in the other model output I think it might be on to something for a change!

Back to the chase again after today’s unfortunate non-event around here. UKMO 12z at t144 looks promising!

Have loved seeing everyone’s snow photos and videos today but unfortunately it has been a bit of a non-event here where I live in south Cambridgeshire. Slightly gutted, especially as the radar had us under heavy snow for quite a few hours, but it never materialised. Currently have a bit of light sleet but it’s all a bit underwhelming. Anyway, hope everyone who has snow today enjoys it whilst it lasts and for those of us who have missed out there’s still time before this winter is over to see something decent.

The latest CFS run brings in an easterly by the 7th February with a beautiful cold pool to tap into to our NE. Another run that continues the trend for a cold spell during February that I was speaking about earlier as well!

To my surprise the GFS 12z is sticking with a fairly northerly track for tomorrow’s band of snow compared to the other models. Could be a few surprises!

By next Saturday the ICON 12z has the majority of the UK under sub -5C uppers again compared to the 00z that had uppers well above 0C still. Another suggestion that the milder spell is still being watered down perhaps? 00z: 12z:

Heavy snow showers here in Cambridge this afternoon. Was beautiful, easily the best of the season so far! IMG_1010.MOV IMG_1011.MOV

The latest CFS run is still setting up a decent cold spell during February. It has virtually been rock solid with this signal recently so it will be very interesting to see what transpires.

Maybe all of those CFS runs showing an easterly in February weren’t for nothing then.

UKMO 12z develops a more notable feature on Sunday compared to the other models at t48. Would love to see the precipitation charts for this!

Whilst the ICON 12z has shifted the snow risk further south on Sunday, the GFS 12z is now more bullish about the system with a decent amount of snow across much of southern England and Wales. Looks like a very uncertain situation still.?

ICON 18z is still showing the band of snow on Sunday, will be interesting to see what the high-res models make of this system tomorrow.

Some interesting news from Marco this evening! Link: https://twitter.com/petagna/status/1352345781584461824?s=21