Matt H

The post from Tamara is brilliant but I don’t like the way you’ve just casually dismissed the posts from everyone else. There have been many excellent contributions from a range of individuals recently about the way forward (not from me of course) and it’s unfair to accuse them of hopecasting just because you disagree with them. Also I think you’re confusing hopecasting with people just enjoying some of the model runs that deliver a colder set up as well.

At least the CFS manages to deliver the goods.

This chart basically sums up the winter in East Anglia and the SE.

Just had a look at 10 days away in 2018 on both the 00z/12z runs. Actual: GFS: ECM: GEM:

So close...

I’m excited to be able to report a light rain shower here in Cambridge, I wasn’t lucky enough to get it on video though.The current temperature here is 3.9C. The wait for snow goes on, we really have been unlucky in this region so far.

Wow, things really have taken a turn for the worst in here this evening. Yes, it’s likely to become less cold by mid-month based on the current model guidance, but there’s really no need for the sniping or the doom and gloom comments. Can we not just discuss the model output without making things personal? It’s just weather and we can’t do anything about it at the end of the day.

Afternoon everyone, I have refrained from posting recently as the pattern coming up certainly looks complicated and I haven’t felt that I could add much value to the conversation on top of some of the brilliant posts recently due to my lack of experience still. It’s perfectly justified that some people may be disappointed with the current model output, and I also wish that things hadn’t trended in the direction that we seem to be going down at the moment with the ridge collapsing over the top of the UK. However, there’s no point being despondent, we just have to brush ourselves down and look for the next opportunity and I don’t think that’ll be too far away and we just have to wait for the models to get to grips with how to respond to the SSW. I probably won’t comment much until things look genuinely more positive again as I am busy with uni work, but I have loved reading everyone’s contributions and I hope that the models look better again soon.

Evening all, I don’t post much in this thread but I always enjoy reading everyone’s posts. We’ve hardly had a flake of snow so far here in Cambridge since this cold spell started, hopefully that’ll change next week once the easterly wind kicks in. It’s always hard to see other parts of the UK always doing so well with the snow whilst hardly any of us here in the East/South-East see anything yet again. So far the only snowfall we’ve had here was surprisingly back in early December but I forgot to post a photo back then. However, we have had some lovely winter sunsets and frosts here recently and that’s always great (I can’t remember whether I posted a photo previously). Hope everyone manages to see some snow next week, we deserve it to be our turn around here soon.

Completely agree with this. We know how volatile and uncertain the current situation is and it’s going to get very tedious in here over the coming days if people keep getting upset and wound up over GFS operational charts over 300 hours away showing mild weather returning. There’s no denying that there has been a trend for a relaxation of the cold weather by mid-month, but it’s still too far away to know for sure and so it would be great if we could stick to looking for trends rather than emotional posting.

No need to panic everyone, the trusty NASA model is here to rescue us as it doesn’t flatten the pattern beyond t144. I wish it was a good model sometimes.

Another very good parallel run so far out to t174.

I personally think that way too much thought is being put into one day 10 chart that’s going to be different tomorrow anyway. The big picture still looks good for cold going forward and that’s the most important thing.

Please spare us from having this debate again.

The GEFS 12z mean at t192 looks fairly good to me with a cold northerly flow, albeit with many options still on the table within the individual ensembles. Also stronger with the Atlantic ridging compared to the 06z mean FWIW.

If we still get rain even when we have -8C uppers I will honestly give up this hobby.

Parallel run is a stonker, no messing around here!

UKMO 12z uppers for next week also look pretty good. Those BBC forecasts of a mild easterly are going to age like milk.

Tomorrow, as in the 2nd? Is the ECM 00z coming out in a few hours time a joke to you?

My final post of 2020 is this absolute stonker of a chart from p30 with a deep low sinking south across the country with -12C uppers giving blizzards to many. Ending a terrible year on a high, Happy New Year to everyone once again!

We can’t enter 2021 until the pub run rolls out, a sign that 2020 is literally never going to end is it.

Just wanted to wish everyone on here a Happy New Year when the time comes later. We’re in a great position with the model runs at the moment in terms of potentially developing a memorable cold spell so let’s hope that the models continue to show promise as we enter the new year. Here’s hoping that 2021 is a much better year than 2020 for everyone, it can’t be any worse hopefully.

Blimey, tough crowd.

What an absolute beauty, no complaints from me whatsoever about this run.

UKMO 12z uppers look brilliant.