Matt H

I have to admit I’m struggling with this one. If there was a 60% chance of a UK high following the ridge toppling then surely there would be more signs of this playing out in the ensemble means across the main models (indeed like we have seen in the past). Of course things could change but you seem to be fairly alone amongst the members on here with more experience. I’m very much still learning so would genuinely appreciate a response. Thanks.

That’s one hell of a ramp, Ramp.

Well those predictions of a UK high a certainly off to a flying start this afternoon...

GEM 12z casually attempting to line up the sub -20C uppers... bonkers.

Insane synoptics on the GFS(p) 12z as well. Very grateful for these model runs at the moment, it could be years before we see anything like this again.

GFS and UKMO are similar at t144 and the GFS is lining up a stonker in FI beyond then so I think all is good for now.

Been cold here today in Cambridge, temperatures haven’t got much above 1C due to the fog not lifting. Had a welcome relief from the wind though.

I can’t find one model showing a classic UK high in the new year, I’ll keep trying though.

Hi all, first time I’ve posted in this thread. Caught a decent shot of the sunset today, always love a winter sky. Also looking forward to our region hopefully enjoying some snow in the coming days and weeks.

GEM 12z is also another decent run out to t162 so far, although not up to the same standard as the GFS. Great start to the afternoon though. These charts must be enough to crack a smile from @Skullzrulerz hopefully as well!

UKMO 12z at t96 has a feature just to the south of the UK that isn’t present on the GFS, looks like another snow opportunity there.

Thank you so much for your objective analysis recently. I would rather read posts from people that use their experience to make a brave prediction any day rather than read posts from people who merely come on here to look for a ‘told you so’ moment if anything goes wrong with a cold spell. Keep it up, although I don’t know how you’re still awake at this point. Also worth thanking @Kasim Awan for your updates recently as well on the snow situation. I could add so many names but you 2 have both been great recently with consistent updates.

FWIW the GEFS 06z mean is a vast improvement out to the t216 mark compared to the 00z with a mean easterly compared to a south-westerly. Adds some more support for the ECM evolution as well.

The 00z mean for reference around the same time. Good progress, hope the trend continues.

GFS, GFS(p) and ECMWF at t216. Spot the odd one out... My previous comments praising the GFS for being consistent recently appear to have aged like milk.

. Beyond stressful when you’re on a night out but a crucial GFS 18z is rolling out...

As a 21 year old at uni I can tell you that ‘youth speak’ is far more obscure than that these days Griff. Some of the stuff people have said to me in clubs before (when they were open) makes about as much sense as a NAVGEM run.

GFS 18z parallel run is also pretty good this evening out to t192. Brilliant end to the day!

This is a perfectly valid and justified viewpoint and other experienced members have also shared similar opinions this evening. But would it be possible for you to occasionally post some charts/data with your thoughts so we can understand more easily where you’re coming from because your posts do confuse me sometimes? Thanks.

I love reading a range of opinions in here but the charts you’re calling flat are about as flat as Mt Everest in my opinion...?

Indeed, it also adds some credibility to the easterly being shown on the GFS parallel run around the day 10 mark as well.

The ECM mean is far better than the op to my surprise with a cold easterly out to day 10.

My thoughts are with you at this difficult time.

Such an important thing to remember, but it’s also a testament to how wonderful this community is. It has been a weird Christmas to say the least this year and it has been a hard year for everyone so here’s hoping that the weather delivers for us during the rest of the winter!

Fantastic news, goes to show that there’s no point getting upset over one less favourable evolution in the extended range of a single operational run.