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Everything posted by Matt H
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Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Matt H replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Comments on here: The GFS 06z is flat upstream and a big downgrade from the 00z. The actual run in question: -
Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Matt H replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Marginally flatter than the 00z but still looks broadly the same to me, much better than the ECM. Those describing it as flat upstream are living in some sort of parallel universe. -
Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Matt H replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Matt H replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
T192 on the GFS 18z last Friday compared to today. If anyone had told me we’d be seeing charts like this consistently only a week later I’d have laughed in your face. -
Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Matt H replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Matt H replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Matt H replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I’m in no way convinced yet that a decent cold spell will come off considering how many times the models have backtracked from decent synoptics. However, I do get the sense that some people in here could be staring at a blizzard unfolding outside their front doors and still be on here moaning that the uppers won’t be cold enough for snow. -
Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Matt H replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes it should be lovely and warm with uppers of *checks notes* 0C or lower. -
Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Matt H replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Matt H replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Matt H replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Good afternoon to the people that have been insisting that it’ll be zonal all the way through until Spring next year. -
Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Matt H replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
You’ve got to be kidding me, I knew there would be someone moaning. -
Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Matt H replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Matt H replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I don’t think I’ve ever been more apprehensive watching a GFS run come out before... -
Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Matt H replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It's like being lectured by Chris Whitty with some of the comments in here. Of course caution is needed but I don't see anything wrong with people admiring the model output together, especially after the grim year we have had with the pandemic. -
Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Matt H replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Matt H replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Someone in the minute will moan that the northerly takes a few hours longer to set in and declare that this cold spell opportunity is over. -
Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Matt H replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Matt H replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Obviously the GFS 06z will be more interesting this morning but out to t120 the ICON 06z is more amplified than the 00z. 00z: 06z: -
Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Matt H replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Brilliant model runs overnight, don’t know where to start this morning. Something is going on here... -
Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Matt H replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GEFS 18z ensembles look cold for the Christmas period with the mean touching -6C and many other members reaching -8C. Great trends! -
Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Matt H replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The GFS has a history of making things up. -
Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Matt H replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
Matt H replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion