Matt H

P1 is the winner this afternoon, what a beauty! Albeit very isolated though.

Sunday still looks like the best day for most people across the south to see some falling snow according to the ICON 12z.

I think we just need to be patient and hope that the signal for a cold easterly during February continues to gain support. I have noticed recently that the members that are usually the first dismiss any colder charts on the model runs beyond t144 as nothing but a ‘fantasy’ before relentlessly ridiculing people for sharing the charts from the cold model runs are always the same people to assume that every single mild chart shown on a model run is a nailed on certainty before then posting a series of comments to moan about the same milder runs as well and start off all the silly ‘winter is over’ posts. I appreciate that the UK is often unlucky with securing cold weather but posts like this are nothing more than a product of emotional posting and they’re very tedious to read. In truth no one knows where we will end up and everything is still on the table going forward. I appreciate that this is such an obvious comment to make but it’s boring to continuously login to read the same people moaning after every single model run for one reason or another. It’s just weather and we can’t do anything about it no matter how much we moan. I’d love cold and wintry weather as much as anyone else in here but I’m not going to let it dictate my emotions, and nor should it for anyone else, especially at the moment with everything else going on. Anyway, have a great day everyone.

ICON 18z still looks snowy on Sunday. Looks great for those in the south that haven’t seen much snow so far this winter.

ECM 12z ensemble mean looks very similar to the UKMO regarding the system on Saturday. Could deliver a decent snow event by the look of it!

Forgot about James Madden and Exacta weather, gave me a much needed laugh today. If any of his forecasts were near to being correct the UK would be an extension of the Arctic by now.

Another very good parallel run in the extended range, and it ties in well to the signal on the CFS/extended GFS control runs for northern blocking to return during February. Will be very interesting to see whether this consistency comes to anything or not.

GFS 18z is still showing a fairly decent amount of snow for the south at the weekend.

Great to see you back posting again Day 10. Very glad to hear that you’re recovering well from the virus.

The uppers look fairly good to me, at least there’s no obvious warm sector on the t96 chart. Hope it has support from the GEM/ECM 12z runs later.

UKMO 12z is very interesting at t96. Potential snow event for the south depending on the uppers?

Interesting, I’ve also been monitoring the extended GFS control runs recently and there has been a relatively consistent signal for northern blocking to re-establish itself by mid-February. This run is from yesterday and I’m still waiting to see today’s. Of course it may still come to nothing but it’s something to watch nonetheless.

Yes, I’ve just been reading some encouraging updates from the experts on Twitter. I hope they come to something this time, fingers crossed.

So far it does feel like this winter will be remembered as ‘cold but not cold enough’ in terms of widespread snow. Obviously still time for that to change though.

No doubt we will reel it into t168 with full ensemble support, only to watch it collapse at the last hurdle like most of the other attempts recently.

Parallel run is still showing a potential snow event next weekend.

Looks like there’s the potential for a named storm next week and a lot more rain for some areas that really don’t need it at the moment after the flooding recently. Definitely something to watch.

There’s a lovely Halloween plume at t6996. Can’t believe I’ve just gone through the whole 9 month run, the lockdown boredom is shining through.

This is why I love the CFS extended runs. Always shows some wild and interesting synoptics to admire even though they have no chance of verifying. One day!

JMA 12z also manages to bring in some fairly cold uppers for a time as well. No sustained blocking but I’d happily take this if it meant being able to see some more worthwhile frontal snow at some point. Just looking for the positives.

There was a hint of this idea taking place during February on the extended GFS control run this morning, obviously JFF though. I don’t know how much more chasing I can do.

Just spent nearly 10 minutes looking at what I thought were the GEFS 12z ensembles for Cambridge with a mean of -15C next week. Blimey, I was expecting a bit of an upgrade but this was ridiculous. Turns out it was Cambridge in America, never been so confused in all my life. I’d much rather live here during winter though.

I hope that p7 is on the money this afternoon as it has uppers widely down to -10C next week. It shows what’s possible still with this set up I suppose. I can dream anyway.

The standard GFS operational run is the current model being used and the parallel run is the upgraded version of the GFS that is initially run alongside the operational run to help iron out any potential issues before it takes over and becomes the main GFS operational run in the future. Happy to be corrected if I’m wrong.

Very interesting NH profile on the GFS(p) 12z at day 10. Hardly a sign of an organised PV setting up so there’s still lots of interest going forward IMO.