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Everything posted by Matt H
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Model thread discussion - cold spell looming
Matt H replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Within a day the GFS has shifted from a quick breakdown of the cold spell to potentially unleashing an even colder easterly wind (as have the other models). No overhyping at all, things could become very interesting later on in February. -
Model thread discussion - cold spell looming
Matt H replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
A fantastic GFS 12z run this afternoon out to t216, it looks increasingly likely that this cold spell isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. This has to be one of the most exciting periods of model watching that I have ever taken part in! -
Model thread discussion - cold spell looming
Matt H replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model thread discussion - cold spell looming
Matt H replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ECM 12z at t144 looks good. The Atlantic is struggling here! -
Model thread discussion - cold spell looming
Matt H replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
A stronger surface ridge appearing over Scandinavia at t120 on the UKMO 12z. Very interesting! -
Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
Matt H replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
By next Thursday the GEFS 18z ensemble spread ranges from -12.6C up to 1.8C, so it would take a brave person to predict when this cold spell might end. Fantastic model watching at the moment. -
Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
Matt H replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
Matt H replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
There’s a 1025mb ridge of high pressure over Scandinavia at day 10 as well. Perhaps lining up round 2 on some of the individual runs? -
Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
Matt H replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
Matt H replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GFS 06z looks like another upgrade to me out to t102 with -12C uppers pushing further west combined with stronger heights to our north which may help to prolong the cold spell on this run as well. -
Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
Matt H replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
Matt H replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ECM 12z was suggesting lows of around -13C across the snow fields in the Midlands on Thursday next week. -
Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
Matt H replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The GEFS 18z ensemble mean is rock solid out to t132 with sub -8C uppers covering the majority of the country! -
Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
Matt H replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
You know that we’re in a good position when charts like this don’t produce 10 pages of new posts anymore. Nearly there, the final countdown is definitely on now. -
Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
Matt H replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ECM 12z ensemble mean is fantastic again this evening. We’re so close to experiencing some memorable weather now! t96: t120: t144: -
Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
Matt H replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The best part of the the GEM 12z is that it keeps the easterly winds going for longer than the 00z run. What an absolute beauty out to t138! -
Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
Matt H replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Beautiful UKMO 12z at t144. Looks like it could be trying to set up a more sustained cold spell here! -
Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
Matt H replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
Matt H replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ICON 12z is definitely sorting out the longevity issue this afternoon in style. Still looking beautiful out to t168! -
Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
Matt H replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The ECM 00z ensemble mean is an absolute stonker! Sensational model output across the board this morning! t120: t144: -
Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
Matt H replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The ensemble mean at t138 is an absolute beauty. The best model output of the evening for the entire country IMO! -
Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
Matt H replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
Matt H replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
Matt H replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
Matt H replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion