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Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

It's busy right now, so please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads. 
And for more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.
There's now also a cold spell chat and discusison thread.

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Following GEM.

Yes and already grinding to a halt, pushing back 48 hours at least so far

Edited by Griff
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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
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Posted
1 minute ago, That ECM said:

Now that’s what you call an east west split. couple of shoves left?  Great trends today.  

68A97BF5-2292-425B-BE15-A77178AA02AD.png

Surely must be a front there? between airmasses

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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted

For those in the west, you'd hope there would be a stalling front over the UK in the mix at 144.....

spacer.png

Overall theme......cold stays firmly in charge!

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
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Posted

Stalled band of snow lying across Wales/western England at D7. Max temps range from 1 to -4 for most of UK

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
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Posted

The UKMO is very good at day 6 with the best aligned Scandi high and cold pool.

You need any high to be facing head onto the upstream low . The block on the UKMO is aligned ene wsw .

The quickest route to that deep cold pool is from that type of set up , a bit more elevation to the high would be better . Hopefully the UKMO can build on this tomorrow !

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted

Selfishly I’d prefer the GEM / GFS as there’s some snow end of the week for central  & Eastern areas. I’m sure that will chop and change a few times between now and then though ... 

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MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted
1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Selfishly I’d prefer the GEM / GFS as there’s some snow end of the week for central  & Eastern areas. I’m sure that will chop and change a few times between now and then though ... 

Yes agree with that 

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Selfishly I’d prefer the GEM / GFS as there’s some snow end of the week for central  & Eastern areas. I’m sure that will chop and change a few times between now and then though ... 

Honest at least but as you say will chop and change, better to see a trend than worry about the fine print just yet... 

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StingJet Community Regular

StingJet

Posted
  • Location: Ynys Mon - Cymru (Isle of Anglesey - Wales)
  • Weather Preferences: Whatever Mother Nature cares to throw my way
  • Location: Ynys Mon - Cymru (Isle of Anglesey - Wales)
Posted
18 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

This is gona be a classic Feb cold spell...

 

 I concur, and more than likely extended into March

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StingJet Community Regular

StingJet

Posted
  • Location: Ynys Mon - Cymru (Isle of Anglesey - Wales)
  • Weather Preferences: Whatever Mother Nature cares to throw my way
  • Location: Ynys Mon - Cymru (Isle of Anglesey - Wales)
Posted

A snip of ECM 0z @ +216

image.thumb.png.ed5b24f9b72ff87636effbaf31dc2f09.png

now compared to the ECM 12z @ +216

Euro cold 850s fighting back 

image.thumb.png.58c5fdadff5efa4e9ed858ec274af3d6.png

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
Just now, Frigid said:

I expect a bit of warm air advection with that. would feel cold still

ECMOPEU12_240_1.thumb.png.a45860c44a07f2655343a431b2b0d05b.png

and very foggy

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Notty Community Regular

Notty

Posted
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
Posted

Imagine this, bitterly cold under clear skies and snow cover and not a breath of wind.

image.thumb.png.51c1a6c3fe787a35bcab1529d1f59c5a.png

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
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Posted

Once you get any cold pool to the east it’s better to have a smaller high developing over Scandi than one super large high stretching from the UK to well into Russia .

The longer route which the ECM is taking requires enough elevation to the north and that might take a while , meanwhile the cold pool gets pushed a bit too far south .

It remains cold at the surface for most of the UK throughout its run so good for snow retention where that’s fallen and dew points remain low which is crucial to retain that .

 

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
Just now, StingJet said:

A snip of ECM 0z @ +216

image.thumb.png.ed5b24f9b72ff87636effbaf31dc2f09.png

now compared to the ECM 12z @ +216

Euro cold 850s fighting back 

image.thumb.png.58c5fdadff5efa4e9ed858ec274af3d6.png

As of late it's playing catch up, give it a day or so  

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted

Here’s the scores on the doors at the end of the week. If I was in the central region I’d be desperate for the Atlantic to make it that far!   Overall it’s going to memorable for the overall coverage and longevity though and this is before any convective activity it’s probably missing...

907384CA-B611-4A7F-8A06-0BD2762E5EA6.jpeg

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BlackburnChris Enthusiast

BlackburnChris

Posted
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
Posted
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

12z EC restores my faith in the European Winter...

Bitter for us, then epic bitter for the central region..

Yep and if eventually the Scandi High retrogresses to Greenland , we could be extending the Cold well into March , and it quite often does in these situations ... 

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