Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

[BlueHedgehog074]

Just to add to Paul's useful post, any issues you come across with posts, such as those would be be deemed unsuitable or offensive for this thread, please feel free to report them. This being much more preferable than repsonding to the offensive post (unless you really feel there is a valid reason for it. Maybe, for example, someone posts something that you disagree with and you just want to correct them. Which is fine, providing there are no insults slipping into the response). We'll stamp out any reported unsuitable posts soon as possible, or whenever one of us are available to do so . You can also Private Message one of the team regarding the above issues. We are always open to suggestions on how things in both this thread and the site in general could be improved, so if you're not happy with something, feel we're being too harsh, being picky towards certain members or something, then do give us a message. We want this to be a fair place for you all.

One other thing to add is that although emotions will be running high at times, make sure your post:

• Avoids making fun of other members
• Doesn't disrespect other people's weather preferences (you don't have to like the type of weather others like, but please be respectful of other people's choices)
• Doesn't try to get a reaction from others
• Not full of weather guilt-tripping
• Doesn't belittle people due to them having differing opinions to you. And includes things like jumping onto other people's posts because they post charts that are of the opposite sort of weather you're wanting. We get a few people who post charts opposite to what you want may be delibrately trying to cause trouble in the thread. Most of these people, however, I imagine just wanting to provide an alternative point of view. Not everyone likes cold or snowy weather.

Can be quite easy to say things that aren't intended when feeling agitated, sad, from personal life stress and such, therefore we can understand there could be the odd spat or two creeping in at times. Can be fun to read engaging, but overall, healthy debates unfolding on here at times. It is again some rough times we're in at the moment and none of us are perfect (nor do we need to be). But it would be appreciated to keep any bickering to a minimum. Thanks a lot guys Our storage shed is full of naughty seats and "I've been bad" shirts just incase

Edited February 5, 2021 by DiagonalRedLine
Mistakes

[Eastbourneguy]

The GFS is still out on it's own regarding having everything slightly further north Sunday, reflected in the 850s.

GFS

UKMO

GEM

 

It doesn't really make too much a difference for most of the southeast regarding snowfall or rain, but coastal areas do fall into slight jeopardy if the GFS was to be true. There's a difference of around -6 C at 850 hPa between the GEM and GFS at only 72hours over kent and sussex! 

Areas further north would benefit from this extra north push for dynamic snow, but I really think getting in the properly cold air fully will be beneficial for most down the road, from convective showers, to it being colder at the surface when the Atlantic inevitably fights back. The GFS is continuing to want this low to modify our lovely Pc air more than I would like.  

 

Edited February 5, 2021 by Eastbourneguy

[nick sussex]

Still differences with the GFS and UKMO/GEM regarding less cold uppers moving west across the south , the latter two aren’t interested in that so still some uncertainty on that front .

As for the breakdown that’s still 6 days out and a lot can change . The area to keep an eye on is between the shortwave to the north at day 6 and the upstream low to see if there’s a stronger push of better heights there .

In terms of the obituaries being written for the event before it’s even begun , precip charts especially with convection are a waste of space .

 

Edited February 5, 2021 by nick sussex

[Ultima Thule]

Can anyone post UKV precipitation charts from 12z run?

[Guest]

Well the GFS 00Z had temps pushing into the teens around  days 11-12, temps possibly nudging the teens next weekend by looking at the 12Z. UKMO possibly heading towards GFS as well (not often you say that) 

So much more going on before that though, Arpege possibly brings the Channel low into play on Tuesday and snow amounts before flip-flopping with every run. Fun times

[Battleground Snow]

Still a large spread at day 7 on the GEFS, with OP near the top of the pack.

But you would think it's just a matter of when not if the mild interlude gets in now, especially after the Ukmo 144. Still time for changes though.

[Gustywind]

16 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

I’ll take the GEM 12z at day 6

GEM much better than GFS or UKMO with front aligned NW/SE as opposed to pointing NE & dragging up SW’s ahead of it. Need the former 2 to move to this scenario if we’re to get a decent battleground event.

[Don]

16 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Ah a normal winter chart.

Which is why we should enjoy the 5 day cold spell.

And what was the GFS 6Z showing for that time period?!

[chionomaniac]

8 minutes ago, Ultima Thule said:

Can anyone post UKV precipitation charts from 12z run?

I think posting the odd one is ok, but bulk posting may not go down too well with @Paul as this is a paid for service

[summer blizzard]

47 minutes ago, chris55 said:

UKMO trending the wrong way at 144 with the Atlantic Low edging north east pulling up an Iberian ridge ahead. Still a way to go on the eventual modelling of this though, will await ECM with interest. 

A look at the 850hpa chart shows the triple point south of the UK meaning the day 6 front on the UKMO largely fails unless another comes in afterwards.

[That ECM]

4 minutes ago, Don said:

And what was the GFS 6Z showing for that time period?!

I think you know

The point being fi is fi, next 5 days cold is coming.

Edited February 5, 2021 by That ECM

[Georgina]

32 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Anyone want to bet that this east Europe block is more west and north come nearer the time?

 

What would that mean for us ? That the cold lasts longer ? 

[sheikhy]

9 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Still a large spread at day 7 on the GEFS, with OP near the top of the pack.

But you would think it's just a matter of when not if the mild interlude gets in now, especially after the Ukmo 144. Still time for changes though.

Stil a lot of scatter this is far from done!!also the midlands ensembles have quiet a few still remaining very cold into the weekend!!hopefully ecm latches on to the lower end of those ensembles!!!

[Tim Bland]

12 minutes ago, Ultima Thule said:

Can anyone post UKV precipitation charts from 12z run?

 

[chionomaniac]

5 minutes ago, Georgina said:

What would that mean for us ? That the cold lasts longer ? 

Fundamentally, a return to another easterly and round 2. These patterns do have a habit of repeating themselves. Remember the mini BFTE, that followed the BFTE a couple of years ago.

[Notty]

36 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Anyone want to bet that this east Europe block is more west and north come nearer the time?

 

I would put money on it (not too much though).

As usual, GFS is over excited with the LP and we will probably end up with a blended solution with the other models which hopefully means if the cold spell is to end it will end with a snowstorm for some.

As I and many others keep saying, Fantasy Island is 5 days away and the models could be very different for next Wednesday as we go through the transition to cold and the first LP.

UKMO are very bullish about a cold end to February and the start of March.

[Paul]

Lots of moans, groans and non-model discussion has been moved over to the chat thread.
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/94934-winter-202021-chat-ramps-moans-and-banter/?do=getNewComment

Please have a read of the blue box by the post editor and consider what you're posting before hitting submit - the links to the other non-model discussion threads are right there.

[Notty]

47 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

From winter to spring in a week. No IMBY fights next weekend! 

Will it though ...

[Scorcher]

Still a long way off but GFS has shown this for a couple of runs now, a possible much milder spell following on from the cold spell. Personally I think this is more  likely than a continuation of the cold into the weekend and beyond.

 

[Notty]

4 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Fundamentally, a return to another easterly and round 2. These patterns do have a habit of repeating themselves. Remember the mini BFTE, that followed the BFTE a couple of years ago.

Yes. We had a dump of snow on 1st March and another one two weeks later !

[chris55]

32 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Gem putting much more of a fight up compared to the Ukmo and gfs with a stronger scandi high at 150

I think the ECM will be similar later, probably just a delay though

GEM looking more realistic. GFS is always progressive, and I think UKMO is a bit quick on the operational (would be nice to see the UKMO ens but we can't)

GEM showing snowfall into the south west at dat 6 continuing into day 7 north of Somerset. The milder air does push through and moves the snow line further north on Saturday.

I try not to be to IMBY in the thread, but seeing as we have had a lot of talk about the SE quadrant, thought i'd wave the flag for the south west.

 

Still a long way to go with this, and as I have said before, it wouldn't surprise me if we end up with a sustained/renewed easterly feed before the milder Atlantic air gets established in any meaningful way.

[saintkip]

4 minutes ago, chris55 said:

GEM looking more realistic. GFS is always progressive, and I think UKMO is a bit quick on the operational (would be nice to see the UKMO ens but we can't)

GEM showing snowfall into the south west at dat 6 continuing into day 7 north of Somerset. The milder air does push through and moves the snow line further north on Saturday.

I try not to be to IMBY in the thread, but seeing as we have had a lot of talk about the SE quadrant, thought i'd wave the flag for the south west.

 

Still a long way to go with this, and as I have said before, it wouldn't surprise me if we end up with a sustained/renewed easterly feed before the milder Atlantic air gets established in any meaningful way.

That would be a great outcome 

[Nath]

In the 1980s I lost count of the number of times a breakdown from the West never made it to London, or better made it, stalled and dumped copious snow for hours on end.

 

We can hope that the current setup can do it again Thurs/Fri

[snowspotter]

1 hour ago, chris55 said:

UKMO trending the wrong way at 144 with the Atlantic Low edging north east pulling up an Iberian ridge ahead. Still a way to go on the eventual modelling of this though, will await ECM with interest. 

Hmmm. A certain person who used to post on here has tweeted ‘UKMO 144 is a boom time slider . Don’t let anyone tell you it won’t go under . Which post is correct  

[Cold Winter Night]

4 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Still a long way off but GFS has shown this for a couple of runs now, a possible much milder spell following on from the cold spell. Personally I think this is more  likely than a continuation of the cold into the weekend and beyond.

 

Two things:

1) The charts you are showing are mild at that timeframe, BUT they scream Major Cold Spell. Look through some of the most legendary cold spells of the past, and this setup was exactly the run up to that.

2) Like @chionomaniac said on one of the previous pages, will we even get to this point? A small tweak here and there, a slightly weaker low, a high just 200 miles farther NW and the cold doesn't even leave, before the new round of amplification hits. Because the models really are firming up on that second round.