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March 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

March CET averages and extremes

_The forty most recent March CET values 1981-2020 are arranged by warmest (bold type) 12, middle 14 (italics) and coldest 14 (underlined)._ The uneven distribution is due to ties for 13th warmest in this interval. I placed those three in the middle range as fifteen warm would have been a bit excessive. The least cold of the 14 coldest are also three tied at 12th coldest. 

15.1 ... warmest March daily mean (30th, 2017)

14.7 ... previous warmest March daily mean (27th, 1777)

 9.2 ... Warmest March (1957)
 9.1 ... 2nd warmest March (1938)

 8.7 ... 3rd warmest March (2017)
 8.4 ... 4th warmest March (1997)
 8.3 ... 5th warmest March (1948,1990, 2012)
 8.2 ... 8th warmest March and warmest before 20th century (1750, tied with 1961)

 

 7.9 ...1981, 1991, 1998

 7.8 ... 2019

 7.7 ...1994

 7.6 ... 2000, 2002, 2014 

 7.5 ... 1989, 1992, 2003 

 7.4 ... 1999 

 7.2 ... 2005, 2007 

 7.0 ... 2009  

 6.8 ... mean of 1990-2019 fell back 0.1 when 1990 replaced by 2020 -- was the third consecutive 6.8 30-yr avg, warmest of series (also 1988-2017, 1989-2018)

 6.7 ... 1993, 2011, 2020 ... mean of 1991-2020 (6.74) ... conceivable that Met office will call this at 6.8 depends on different methods.

 6.6 ... mean of 1981-2010 

 6.5 ... 2004 ... mean of 21st century (2001-2020)

 6.4 ... 1983, 1988, 2015

 6.3 ... mean of 1971-2000

 6.1 ... 1982, 2008, 2010 

 6.0 ... the first 30-year average to round off to 6.0 was 1965-94

 5.9 ... the first 30-year average to round off to 5.9 was 1938-67 then it fell back as low as 5.5 1958-87.

 5.8 ... mean of 20th century (1901-2000) and 2016
 5.7 ... mean of 1961-1990

 5.6 ... 1995 ... (1815-1844 average, a slight peak in a long series near 5.5, ending with 1822-51, 5.5 not seen again until 1893-1922)

 5.4 ... mean of all 362 years (1659-2020) _ now 5.35 rounded up from 5.352 so unambiguously 5.4
 5.2 ... mean of 19th century (1801-1900) and 2001
 5.0 ... mean of 18th century (1701-1800)

 

 4.9 ... 1986, 2006, 2018 ... (1863-1892 the last 30 yr average to fall below 5.0 and the only one after 1785-1814)
 4.7 ... 1984, 1985 ... (1742-1771 average, a secondary minimum after 4.3; was up to 5.5 1710-39)

 4.6 ... mean of (CET portion of) 17th century (1659-1700)
 4.5 ... 1996  

 4.3 ... average 1672-1701 (4.31) and 1673-1702, 1674-1703 (4.34), lowest 30-year averages of series

 4.1 ... 1987 

 2.8 ... 1962 ... Coldest March of 20th century

 2.7 ... 2013 ... Coldest March since 1892 ... tied with 1892 and 1784 joint 12th coldest March

 1.8 ... 3rd coldest March (1748)
 1.2 ... 2nd coldest March (1785)
 1.0 ... Coldest March (1674)

 1.0 ... Mean of last ten days of March 2013 (22nd-31st)

 0.6 ... Mean of the five days 22nd-26th March 2013

-3.8 ... daily record set on 1st (2018)

-3.9 ... Coldest March daily mean since all-time low in 1845 (3rd, 1965)

-6.5 ... Coldest March daily mean (13th, 1845)

Enter your forecast by the end of Sunday, 28 Feb to avoid time penalties, or by the end of Wednesday 3rd of March with time penalties but before the absolute deadline

_______________________________________________________________________

 

March 2021 EWP forecast contest 

Predict the March England and Wales average rainfall in mm, verification is from Hadley EWP and all data in the following table are from the Hadley records which run from 1766 to 2020. 

The deadline information is the same as above, 0.3 points (of a possible 10.0) are deducted for each day late.

 

177.5 __ maximum (1947)

160.4 __ maximum 1981-2020 (1981)

115.1 __ 2018 (max since 1981)

 95.1 __ 2016

 94.7 __ 2019

 80.6 __ 2017

 76.4 __ 2013

 71.5 __ mean 1981-2010

 65.4 __ mean 1991-2020

 61.3 __ mean 1766-2020

 57.9 __ 2020

 55.5 __ 2014

 51.4 __ 2015

 30.9 __ 2012

 22.3 __ minimum 1981-2019 (2011) (20th lowest 1766-2020) ... 1990 was 22.4

 05.6 __ minimum (1781)  

________________________________________________________

You can enter both contests in the same post, and good luck. 

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Edited by Roger J Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Pencil me in at 6.8C, 60mm.

A fairly settled month with a high near the UK giving way to a flatter (but still mild and fairly dry for England) pattern as the month progresses.

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6.0.C and 88mm please.

 

  The first 3 weeks will be broadly anticyclonic and very dry. It will be slightly cooler than average throughout this. How cool will vary greatly depending on subtleties in wind direction, which will be predominantly Easterly but temperatures by day largely decent with night time values pulling the average down with hard frosts.

    However an about turn last week into very unsettled and wet Atlantic weather which will set the scene for an ‘April Showers on steroids’ style month (think April 2012.)

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

7.1c cheers

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
On 20/02/2021 at 13:34, Timmytour said:

Remarkable how March was hoisted onto a new plateau from the 1990s.....

 

887517417_MarchSevenYearAverageCET.thumb.jpg.04d2d3c4c03b4b3dd6b0c0ee71a64a3f.jpg

1275467536_MarchSevenYearAverageCET1800to2020.thumb.jpg.6735e9d02d45a61806919560bf59f7ca.jpg

Feels like slowly it's coming back towards standard range..

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Posted
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts
  • Weather Preferences: hot summers; frigid winters; golden fall; bright spring
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts

Hi

8.0C and 52mm please, a pleasant fairly warm and dry month. 

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

7*C with 15mm of rain/snow please. Thanks

15mm based on hopes of it being a mostly dry month overall, he hee 

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
Meant to say please
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

The running averages are very suggestive of a springtime step-change occurring around 1990; maybe a result of the earlier build-up of heat over North Africa and the Med, like what's now getting more common in February?

1588112676_MarchSevenYearAverageCET1800t

So, I'll guess at 8C and 65mm, please, thank you, Roger.

Edited by General Cluster
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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

6.7c and 63mm please.

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Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters, cold springs, cold summers and cold autumns
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom

12C    Last sub 2C March in 1883.  Last sub 3C and last sub 4C March in 2013.  Last sub 5C and last sub 5.5C March in 2018.

200mm of Atlantic garbage.

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Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.

for March I will go for 6.5c as for precipitation I will go for 75 mm thank you.

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