Spring 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter.

[Guest]

Unsurprisingly the combination of a cool April and May generally doesn't lead to a good summer. I've averaged out the records from Hurn and ranked according to mean max. The only decent summer that comes from a the coldest 10 April/May combinations is 1983 which on mean max temp was the fourth warmest down here. 1994 was decent the rest are mainly in propping the 64years of records.

I reckon we'll end up with the 5th-10th coldest April/May combination, we'd need to one of the crazy cold ECM or GFS runs from the last 24hrs to break into the top 4.

So in summary and based on my simple maths we need a pretty almighty flip in conditions to deliver a decent summer, but being ultra positive its happened before so no reason why it can't happen again (even if its unlikely) 

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Work trousers and tank tops, for me -- and my suntan is coming along nicely!

I'm having a sunbed today, middle of May and I'm pastier than piece of A4 paper never lacked colour so badly at this time of year. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I'm having a sunbed today, middle of May and I'm pastier than piece of A4 paper never lacked colour so badly at this time of year. 

May is over rated, I think last 10 days or so been very mild, no frost or snow even at 400m, all change though soon, but not unexpected for time of year

[summer blizzard]

37 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

But we're not in June yet? It's over 2 weeks away!

Very premature to be predicting a sub 13.5C June. It's only May 15th! 

I don't think there has been any hopecasting about this- I think people have just been looking at years where there was a flip in late May- and it does happen.

2003 is a classic example. I distinctly remember feeling it was never going to warm up after a very boring, cool month. Once it flipped, we never really looked back.

I'm not making a June prediction but I see people whaffling about what amounts to hopecasting and feel it's my duty to correct the record.

2003 was generally a sunny, warm spring. Any cool spell you remember was an anomoly.

Edited May 15, 2021 by summer blizzard

[ChannelThunder]

10 hours ago, B87 said:

I can't see us even reaching 30c at this rate. A combination of June 1991, July 1980 and August 2008 to come I think.

Based on the last few summers, I'd bet there's more chance that we record 37C than not getting past 30. Even if we have a terrible summer on the whole, there'll usually be at least one blast of intense heat.

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

I'm not making a June prediction but I see people whaffling about what amounts to hopecasting and feel it's my duty to correct the record.

And you make our point for us: you never can tell?

[78/79]

25 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Work trousers and tank tops, for me -- and my suntan is coming along nicely!

When the sun has made an appearance the sweater has been off  Pete,  as long as it's dry I'm happy. 

[Earthshine]

Nobody has the first clue what is going to happen this summer.  Nobody.  Regardless of people "hopecasting" or being doom-mongers, this summer could turn out to be anything.  Summer is a very, very long time in weather terms and it's highly likely we will see both hot and cool, dry and wet periods.  The most probable scenario is that there will be some weather for everyone, just like every summer in history.

[summer blizzard]

11 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And you make our point for us: you never can tell?

Nothing is ever guaranteed but I was pointing out two things..

1) Half the years being mentioned were rescued by their warm spells at least in terms of June CET

2) Statistically speaking the actually poor June's tend to have fairly horrific summers.

 

[MP-R]

19 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

 

2003 was generally a sunny, warm spring. Any cool spell you remember was an anomoly.

25th April to 25th May was not... That’s a very long anomaly.

[B87]

22 minutes ago, Lance M said:

Based on the last few summers, I'd bet there's more chance that we record 37C than not getting past 30. Even if we have a terrible summer on the whole, there'll usually be at least one blast of intense heat.

Lets hope so! If the long range forecast is suggesting a warmer than average summer but we start with a repeat of June 1991, that must mean a serious heatwave in July/August.

[Scorcher]

29 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

I'm not making a June prediction but I see people whaffling about what amounts to hopecasting and feel it's my duty to correct the record.

2003 was generally a sunny, warm spring. Any cool spell you remember was an anomoly.

How come you were mentioning sub 13.5C Junes then? I can't recall many people even mentioning the prospects for June yet. To me it seems like it's you who is looking ahead and making unfounded predictions more than anyone else you've accused of 'hopecasting'. Most posts I've seen in the model thread have been pretty downbeat.

Spring 2003 was warm and sunny overall but that was because March and April were so exceptional- May was very underwhelming indeed until the last week. Plenty of charts and statistics show that.

Edit: Just to add that rainfall in England and Wales was 25% above average in May 2003. The overall CET was boosted by the late hot spell- which gives a false impression of the month as a whole.

 

 

Edited May 15, 2021 by Scorcher

[Nick L]

26 minutes ago, Lance M said:

Based on the last few summers, I'd bet there's more chance that we record 37C than not getting past 30. Even if we have a terrible summer on the whole, there'll usually be at least one blast of intense heat.

That's the problem with our summers, is that they usually consist of a blast of intense, unpleasant heat. I'm sure most of us would prefer a few weeks in the mid-20s over a few days in the mid-30s!

[B87]

2 minutes ago, Nick L said:

That's the problem with our summers, is that they usually consist of a blast of intense, unpleasant heat. I'm sure most of us would prefer a few weeks in the mid-20s over a few days in the mid-30s!

I'd be happy with an average summer that matched the 91-20 averages for my location. That would include about 5 days of 30c+.

Ideally warmer is better though.

Edited May 15, 2021 by B87

[Methuselah]

17 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Nothing is ever guaranteed but I was pointing out two things..

1) Half the years being mentioned were rescued by their warm spells at least in terms of June CET

2) Statistically speaking the actually poor June's tend to have fairly horrific summers.

 

Rescued? Rescued from what? One might just as easily say that they'd been handicapped by a cool May, or whatever?

[B87]

54 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

Without meaning to derail, even though Mar/Apr. were dull, I do remember Feb. 2018 being one of the sunniest Februaries ever recorded & the winter overall having high sunshine totals. Anyway, my point was only to say that we were overdue such a period & here we are. However, like most people, I love sunshine too so to have a sunny summer would be glorious. Sunny & cool would suit well, but they seem hard to come by.

Since January 2015 here, 38 out of 77 months were average or sunnier than average. In the last 12 months, only 3 have been average or above.

[Methuselah]

7 minutes ago, Nick L said:

That's the problem with our summers, is that they usually consist of a blast of intense, unpleasant heat. I'm sure most of us would prefer a few weeks in the mid-20s over a few days in the mid-30s!

I've no problems with long hot summers, as I've plenty of time to become acclimated to the heat. It's those extreme three-day spikes that get to me.

[ChannelThunder]

7 minutes ago, Nick L said:

That's the problem with our summers, is that they usually consist of a blast of intense, unpleasant heat. I'm sure most of us would prefer a few weeks in the mid-20s over a few days in the mid-30s!

I seem to recall 2018 had both of those sort of events, so that's possible! The late July blast of heat went out with epic storms in the East, but wasn't so fun for the rest of us!

[Azazel]

Just pure, unrelenting dreadfulness. 
 

I planned to stop taking Vitamin D supplements in March but here we are in May, wrapped up against the never ending cold, volcanic winter without even a hint of colour to my ghostly white skin. 

[Azazel]

I know Mother Nature doesn’t owe us anything but the country absolutely deserves a nice warm spell for people to reunite with their families and friends. Even I’m desperate for a beer garden now.

[Guest]

32 minutes ago, Lance M said:

Based on the last few summers, I'd bet there's more chance that we record 37C than not getting past 30. Even if we have a terrible summer on the whole, there'll usually be at least one blast of intense heat.

Its really one of  the most notable thing of the past 5-6 years, the apparent ease at which circa 20C+ 850s can get shot northwards into southern England giving quick blasts of heat. 30/31July last year being a good example with there being no need for day on day heating.

Temps at Heathrow went from average on the 29th to 37C just two days later, only high cloud probably stopped the temps getting to 38-39C. 

29th - 24c

30th - 29C 

31st - 37C

So as long as the heat is pooling to the south it really only needs to two days even in a miserable summer to break the 30C mark.

[Methuselah]

13 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Just pure, unrelenting dreadfulness. 
 

I planned to stop taking Vitamin D supplements in March but here we are in May, wrapped up against the never ending cold, volcanic winter without even a hint of colour to my ghostly white skin. 

I went on holiday, to the sarf coast, in late June 1983 -- NW winds and maxes of around 17-18C . . . two days' after I returned home, it was 34C!

Edited May 15, 2021 by Ed Stone

[ChannelThunder]

10 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Its really one of  the most notable thing of the past 5-6 years, the apparent ease at which circa 20C+ 850s can get shot northwards into southern England giving quick blasts of heat. 30/31July last year being a good example with there being no need for day on day heating.

Temps at Heathrow went from average on the 29th to 37C just two days later, only high cloud probably stopped the temps getting to 38-39C. 

29th - 24c

30th - 29C 

31st - 37C

So as long as the heat is pooling to the south it really only needs to two days even in a miserable summer to break the 30C mark.

Yeah, I remember that well! When you're used to requiring day-on-day heating over a fair few days to achieve such temperatures, it's pretty incredible to see that we can get to basically the maximum temperature achievable in the UK in such a short space of time with the right set-up.

Edited May 15, 2021 by Lance M

[Howie]

This is completely off topic but can someone tell Matt Hugo that we can see what he likes on twitter , I don't want to be the one to do it

[Frigid]

This has to be one of the worst Mays possible, a complete 180 on the May we had last year. Non stop rain and temperatures struggling above 12c for the next 10 days. Crazy to think the only instance 20c recorded here was in March. April was a lot more enjoyable as it wasn't dull, just cold. We've had a run of good Mays from 2016 and I think this is where it ends.