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May 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

(a) CET May averages and other statistics

___ table includes all CET values for the period 1981 to 2020 ... bold type, warmest third, italics middle third, underlined, coolest third of years ___

 

21.2 ... warmest daily mean (29th, 1780)

20.0 ... 15th (1833) earliest 20.0 CET day.

15.1 ... (1833)
13.9 ... (1848)
13.8 ... (1758, 1788)
13.7 ... (1808)
13.6 ... (1727, 1992)

13.5 ... (1784, 1868, 1919, 1947)

13.4 ... 2008 (tied with 1726, 1952)

13.2 ... 2017, 2018

13.1 ... 1998

13.0 ... 1989

12.9 ... 1999

12.6 ... 1990, 2001

12.5 ... 2016, 2020

12.3 ... 2006

12.2 ... 2011, 2014

12.1 ... 2000, 2003, 2004, 2009 

12.0 ... ... ... 2001-2020 average

11.9 ... 1991-2020 average and 1988, 2007 

11.8 ... 2002

11.7 ... 1981-2010 average and 2012

11.6 ... 1982, 1995

11.5 ... 1997

11.4 ... 1993, 2005 .. 1901-2000 average

11.3 ... 1971-2000 average, 1701-1800 average

11.2 ... 1981 ... 1961-1990 average, 1659-2020 average of all data (11.23)

11.1 ... 1986, 2019 ... 1801-1900 average

10.9 ... 1985

10.8 ... 1991, 2015

10.7 ... 1994, 2010 ... 1659-1700 average

10.4 ... 2013

10.3 ... 1983

10.1 ... 1987

  9.9 ... 1984

  9.1 ... 1996 tied 13th coldest with two other years, the coldest in recent years)

  8.9 ... 1879, 1885, 1902 tied 5th coldest

  8.8 ... 1855 was 4th coldest

  8.7 ... 1817 was 3rd coldest

  8.6 ... 1740 was 2nd coldest

  8.5 ... 1698 was coldest May

 

Extreme cold

 3.5 .... mean for 3-5 May, 1877

 2.9 .... coldest daily mean (8th, 1861)

_____________________________________

Post your May CET forecasts before end of day Friday 30th of April to avoid time penalty, or in first three days of May with increasing late penalties.

______________________________________

 

(b) England and Wales precip (EWP) contest 

Note: this is verified against the Hadley version of EWP (1766 to present),  

The contest asks you to predict the average England and Wales precip in mm. These are the extreme values and recent averages. 

 

151.8 ___ max 1766-2018 (in 1773)

142.4 ___ second wettest in 1782 

140.7 ___ third wettest in 1967

118.4 ___ maximum 1981-2018 (2007) __ (115.2 in 1983)

 64.0 ___ average 1766-2020 (all data)

 63.6 ___ average 1981-2010

 62.7 ___ average 1991-2020

 10.3 ___ minimum 1981-2020 (in 2020) _  (13.7 (1991) previous)

 07.9 ___ (min 1766-2020) in 1844 

 ________________________________________________________________

Recent ... 2020 _ 10.3 mm ... ... 2019 _ 46.0 mm ... ... 2018 _ 51.9 mm ... ... 2017 _ 65.0 mm ... ... 2016 _ 61.7 mm ...

... 2015 _ 86.6 mm ...  2014 _ 102.8 mm ...  2013 _ 73.9 mm ...  2012 _ 57.4 mm ...  2011 _ 46.5 mm ...  2010 _ 38.3 mm ... ... 

Enter the EWP contest in the same post as your CET temperature forecast. Scores are by rank order out of 10.0, 0.3 penalties per day late. Same deadlines apply as CET contest. 

 

... Good luck in both contests ... 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

10.6c and 64mm please.

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Posted
  • Location: Hounslow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Csa/Csb
  • Location: Hounslow, London

10.2c and 40mm. Continuing very cold and dry as April has been.

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Posted
  • Location: Islington, C. London.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and mixed summers.
  • Location: Islington, C. London.

11.0 & 62mm please 

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Posted
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts
  • Weather Preferences: hot summers; frigid winters; golden fall; bright spring
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts

12C and 58.8mm for me please.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Pop me down for 11.6C and 60mm. 

Edited by summer blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: bright & frosty/snowy; summer: hot and sunny.
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland

10.7°C and 68.0mm for me please. 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

12.7C and 65mm please 

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

Will go for 12.5*C please and 70mm rain.

Like one or two others, feel as though it could start cool, but becoming very warm as the month progresses with some monster bangers on the loose and torrential downpours ⚡️Good drier periods at times too

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
7 hours ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Will go for 12.5*C please and 70mm rain.

Like one or two others, feel as though it could start cool, but becoming very warm as the month progresses with some monster bangers on the loose and torrential downpours ⚡️Good drier periods at times too

Yeah, I think after all the cold air hanging around this year so far, once it warms up properly, the thunderstorms will start to show up. Usually happens in the second half of May.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
23 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

Yeah, I think after all the cold air hanging around this year so far, once it warms up properly, the thunderstorms will start to show up. Usually happens in the second half of May.

It would be interesting to see the soil moisture profiles for western/central europe as they may be a good guide as to the likely above/below average stability of any flow.

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Posted
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
14 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

It would be interesting to see the soil moisture profiles for western/central europe as they may be a good guide as to the likely above/below average stability of any flow.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
15 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

Yeah, I think after all the cold air hanging around this year so far, once it warms up properly, the thunderstorms will start to show up. Usually happens in the second half of May.

I think that is definitely a real possibility. Think it was either May 2018 and/or May 2019 that had a bit of a thundery end (from what I remember)

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
2 hours ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

I think that is definitely a real possibility. Think it was either May 2018 and/or May 2019 that had a bit of a thundery end (from what I remember)

Yeah, May 27th 2018, or around that time. It was a bank holiday weekend, and the saturday night, a severe thunderstorm hit the london region. Constant flashes of lightning, loud thunder and high wind with very heavy rain, which lasted for about an hour. The Bank holiday monday was thundery in the late afternoon, and the tuesday was very wet, with more thunderstorms during the day. 

This was also the period when it went from dry heat with clear sunny days all May, and switched to the hot humid variety. 2017 had a distant storm on a sunday night, and we had a severe thunderstorm in mid July 2017, late evening, and also during the night.  Again, mid to late May had that warm/hot sunny dry heat, then the humid weather hit in june.

2019 was poor in the london area for thunderstorms.

Edited by Sunny76
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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heat, sun and thunderstorms in summer. Cold sunny days and snow in winter
  • Location: Birmingham, West Midlands

I am guessing that the first half of May will be similar to April but wetter.

11.5 Celsius and 57mm.

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

11.9 degrees & 62 mm please

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