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Noctilucent Cloud season 2021

Arnie Pie

By Arnie Pie
in Space, Science & nature

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Eagle Eye Maestro

Eagle Eye

Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
Posted
Just now, Rush2112 said:

Hi, the third pic capturing the moon, tells me you were probably looking S to SW.  Not sure which direction the first 2 pics are.  NLCs will be visible in the North, scan the skies from west to east focusing your attention near and around the bright star capella which sits in in North to slightly NE skies.  

First two were in the opposite direction, the NLC's if that's what they were would be just West of Ashford. 

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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted
Just now, Eagle Eye said:

First two were in the opposite direction, the NLC's if that's what they were would be just West of Ashford. 

You might be too late that far South. I have a friend who was looking out for the majestic display we saw the other night here in Derby and elsewhere - but he saw nothing.

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Eagle Eye Maestro

Eagle Eye

Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
Posted
9 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

You might be too late that far South. I have a friend who was looking out for the majestic display we saw the other night here in Derby and elsewhere - but he saw nothing.

I've looked every day so far this Season, nothing, that's the downside about being down South, it's just feeding off scraps here. 

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ChannelThunder Accomplished

ChannelThunder

Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
Posted

Indeed I've not seen anything this far South since that one-off mega display weeks ago. Admittedly I don't get up at 3am to look for them though, I just take a look before bed at 11ish to see if anything's showing.

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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted

clear skies...

nlcs showing over russia (webcams)

lets hope!

 

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Arnie Pie Accomplished

Arnie Pie

Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
  • Weather Preferences: Columus Bigus Convectivus
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
  • Author
Posted

latest Aim looks interesting 2 days out....a bit of flotsam

current_daisy15.thumb.png.0a3d13fe797cc3d04358da8bc1398af8.png

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ChannelThunder Accomplished

ChannelThunder

Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
Posted

Cool ISS pass a moment ago, grazing the Moon. Just need the NLCs now!

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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted

gutted... nowt... thought we would at least se something faint...

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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted

Ok, a question for @Arnie Pie and anyone really...

Heres the chart for the 14th when we had a magnificent display... but this chart only has echos from around the 70 degree line for the uk on that day. What did we see? because other days with similar echoes we saw nothing.

daisy.png

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Arnie Pie Accomplished

Arnie Pie

Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
  • Weather Preferences: Columus Bigus Convectivus
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
  • Author
Posted
5 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

gutted... nowt... thought we would at least se something faint...

Nothing visible with my eyes   but just as the light was switching from Astronomical twilight to Nautical twilight just after 03.00 the camera picked up the faintest of traces.

I've had to throw a lot of post editing onto the image so it can be seen 

2939.thumb.JPG.4d175ba053bfbd6440822ff5f6be2155.JPG

This was confirmed by Nick Bull down at Stonehenge

219166236_740568246655279_6467839182958480878_n.thumb.jpg.dc64439cbec71cbf0cffcab4787bbc68.jpg

As for what we witnessed on the 14- 07 -21...im sure, taking into account this seasons offset of an extra half days travel ..that it would have been the flotsam around the 60° Latitude around the 20 to 25 past the hour mark

daisy.png.1df91443484cb0846708cc1a5bca04

daisy14.webp

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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted

Ok..... heres the aim charts for the days i went out, along with what i saw.... all of my times were the same , 10.30pm - midnight, all my positions were the same give or take a mile or two.

Can anyone see a pattern? where on these charts were my viewings?

If we can establish exactly the viewings i saw at those times, then we can accurately get the "clock" face right and improve out ability to predict..... in theory..

may30.png

june4.png

june8.png

june12.png

june13.png

june15.png

june20.png

june22.png

june24.png

june26.png

jul3.png

jul 10.png

july 14.png

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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted

i can see no pattern.

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Arnie Pie Accomplished

Arnie Pie

Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
  • Weather Preferences: Columus Bigus Convectivus
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
  • Author
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

i can see no pattern.

Difficult one Rob..... as you know we`ve been mulling over these Aim images for 2 or 3 years now

I was confident a couple of years ago in the Solar minimum, due to less of a chance of the mass of NLC`s over the pole being dispersed by Solar activity

We have now started a new Solar cycle

xflare_teal_crop.jpg?w=640

6554b6be8c0d829a8bf63ae0c82cf121_link.pn First X-flare of Solar Cycle 25 | Spaceweather.com

SPACEWEATHERARCHIVE.COM
July 3, 2021: Now, Solar Cycle 25 has really begun. On July 3rd, new sunspot AR2838 produced the first X-class solar flare since Sept. 2017. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme...

I think it`s like using any forecast which is 2 and a half days out to guarantee Lightning or Snow..... Sometimes the conditions will allow the forecast to be nailed on... (as with NLC`s in a solar minimum)

Most of the time conditions and forecasts will change in the 2 and half days and will normally end up with a 'Nowcast' situation.

Just to many variants

Just using the maths of the transit around the pole of the NLC`s we can produce 'a guide' to where the NLC`s should be

opular-images-blank-analogue-clock-face-11562920866otsb8p3u8atran.thumb.png.b392a0736eb196f7f8009bef1940a0f4.png

Here`s my guide to where the NLC`s should be the yellow dot is where i believe would be what was viewed on the night/day of the AIM.....Remember there are two viewing times for NLC`s

So the Aim for 3 days out 'Looked' promising

current_daisy15new.thumb.png.ff27bb8ae2f02373d1f4a98141c95da1.png

 

Edited by Arnie Pie
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Arnie Pie Accomplished

Arnie Pie

Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
  • Weather Preferences: Columus Bigus Convectivus
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
  • Author
Posted (edited)

Latest Aim just released.....Still looked promising for a low level display local cloud permitting

current_daisy16n.thumb.png.6773a795995b533f484b0a2c29e8e9d5.png

Edited by Arnie Pie
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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted
10 hours ago, Arnie Pie said:

Latest Aim just released.....Still looked promising for a low level display local cloud permitting

current_daisy16n.thumb.png.6773a795995b533f484b0a2c29e8e9d5.png

Got too cloudy here, but it gets dark so fast now, by 11 pm, im kinda getting the feeling that for us, in Derby, its over.. too many promising signs over the last few days have failed to produce.
 

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Jamie M Accomplished

Jamie M

Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
Posted

Got the same gut feeling here. Pretty sure it's a wrap for the season, maybe the odd one off display over the next few weeks but other than that I'd say it's a closed book.

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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted (edited)

i give up with the daisy charts... i cant fathom them...

How come the June 4th chart has a great display, but the July 17th chart doesnt?

 

current_daisy.png

 

june 4.png

Edited by mushymanrob
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Rush2019 Veteran

Rush2019

Posted
  • Location: Macclesfield
  • Location: Macclesfield
Posted

Just how quickly do they diminish and expand?  Could it be within hours?  For example Germany get a show and by the time they have transited west for a uk viewing, they have diminished, and we see nowt.  Nothing appears on European cams, but the UK has a show, have they expanded within hours during their transit west.  If there is some spontaneity and speed in the diminishing and expanding of the clouds, then it may make sense that the AIM chart shows a good show, but by the time of our twilight they have diminished and visa versa.  I don't know, just a thought.

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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted

Another blank night.. 

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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted
1 hour ago, Rush2112 said:

Just how quickly do they diminish and expand?  Could it be within hours?  For example Germany get a show and by the time they have transited west for a uk viewing, they have diminished, and we see nowt.  Nothing appears on European cams, but the UK has a show, have they expanded within hours during their transit west.  If there is some spontaneity and speed in the diminishing and expanding of the clouds, then it may make sense that the AIM chart shows a good show, but by the time of our twilight they have diminished and visa versa.  I don't know, just a thought.

theres a lot more research to be done, thats for sure. The way one dsy they can be there with little or no warning and the next be empty skies despite good warnings.. 

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Rush2019 Veteran

Rush2019

Posted
  • Location: Macclesfield
  • Location: Macclesfield
Posted
13 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Another blank night.. 

Yes, been on the watch for while, tropospheric cloud has now moved in from the west, Capella no longer visible.  Jupiter and Saturn will be bright and clear in SSW in the early hours before dawn, if you can't sleep cos of the heat they are worth a little look.

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Arnie Pie Accomplished

Arnie Pie

Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
  • Weather Preferences: Columus Bigus Convectivus
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
  • Author
Posted

Faint development 7° across the NW

3049.thumb.JPG.8b2efc5afeac7704e5388cb293009bc5.JPG

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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted
4 hours ago, Arnie Pie said:

Faint development 7° across the NW

3049.thumb.JPG.8b2efc5afeac7704e5388cb293009bc5.JPG

tbh, they are hardly worth it , what time was that? i had some cloud around most of the horizon.

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Arnie Pie Accomplished

Arnie Pie

Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
  • Weather Preferences: Columus Bigus Convectivus
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
  • Author
Posted
6 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

tbh, they are hardly worth it , what time was that? i had some cloud around most of the horizon.

This was taken at just before 03.00, which in turn was just before Nautical twilight started to kick in.

I must admit to expecting a show when the twilight started....but this faint line simply disappeared.....Which leads me to believe that they were not NLC`s....just a convincing illusion of pre twilight 

Your right Rob, not really worth it....I did expect much more after posting

( and now thinking of moving to Russia)

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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted
35 minutes ago, Arnie Pie said:

This was taken at just before 03.00, which in turn was just before Nautical twilight started to kick in.

I must admit to expecting a show when the twilight started....but this faint line simply disappeared.....Which leads me to believe that they were not NLC`s....just a convincing illusion of pre twilight 

Your right Rob, not really worth it....I did expect much more after posting

( and now thinking of moving to Russia)

oh ive posted what i thought were the first signs only for them to fail...

Im like that with the aurora, if you cant see it properly with the naked eye then it hardly counts..

Northern areas are getting plenty of sightings, i wonder just how late they are visible for our midlands area..

 

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