Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards

[Harry]

21 minutes ago, Robbie Garrett said:

Supercell?

Yeah right, guess who's due to fly tomorrow to Lydd as part of my IR training. Will be embedded CBs all day long... 

Stay safe, Robbie - hope those stratus clouds aren’t too turbulent

Edited June 27, 2021 by Harry

[Robbie Garrett]

5 minutes ago, Harry said:

Stay safe, Robbie - hope those stratus clouds aren’t too turbulent

Haha!

Learnt something many years ago.

 

EGKK 272133Z 2721/2824 VRB03KT 9999 SCT015 BECMG 2721/2724 BKN006 TEMPO 2721/2803 6000 SHRA PROB40 TEMPO 2721/2803 1200 BR +SHRA PROB30 TEMPO 2721/2808 BKN002 BECMG 2803/2806 8000 PROB40 2803/2808 2000 BR BECMG 2808/2811 9999 NSW SCT015 PROB40 TEMPO 2811/2824 4000 +SHRA BKN012 BKN030CB=

 

[Harry]

Not liking the mass of cloud and rain advancing NW wards from France. Would have been ideal to get some breaks from the clouds today to get some of that insolation lacking from yesterday.

[Summer Sun]

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 28 Jun 2021 - 05:59 UTC Tue 29 Jun 2021

ISSUED 07:05 UTC Mon 28 Jun 2021

ISSUED BY: Dan

A rather messy setup initially, with outbreaks of rain stretching from SW England across Wales, the Midlands to Lincolnshire/East Anglia, and rather extensive low cloud and fog in places. Some elevated convection is likely in places, enhancing rainfall intensity, but the risk of lightning from this will be very low given skinny CAPE and saturated profiles. Through the day the cloud may break across southern England allowing better insolation and surface heating, the temperature differential then encouraging an onshore breeze to develop along English Channel coasts. How far inland this convergence zone gets will be dependent on the shape of the surface pattern and the degree/extent of surface heating, but reasons to believe that surface based convection could develop a line of heavy showers along some southern counties of England during the afternoon and evening. Model guidance varies over the exact location of the convergence zone - it could be as far north as the M4 corridor for example - and it should be noted that if cloud struggles to break then this will ultimately inhibit the development of heavy showers. So the two main uncertainties are (a) how many showers will actually develop (due to cloud cover) and (b) exactly how deep will the convection be (will they actually produce much in the way of lightning).

Some drier mid-level air is also expected to drift into S/SE England, but again the exact shape of this (ie location and extent) is a little uncertain amongst model guidance. Forecast profiles suggest potential for tall, skinny CAPE but weak shear (some directional, but the strongest flow is above 500mb) which suggests showers may be rather pulse-type in nature. Steering flow may eventually push the showers/thunderstorms offshore (including Isle of Wight) later in the day. Given PWAT around 30mm, light steering winds and slow storm motion there will be scope for locally torrential downpours to cause some flash flooding, more especially should one occur over an urban area. Vorticity stretching as updrafts develop over/along convergence zone coupled with low cloud bases suggests the potential for a couple of funnel clouds or an isolated weak tornado.

There may also be scope for another wave of rain with embedded weak elevated convection to push out of France towards S/SE England on Monday night too.

 

Convective Weather

CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

---

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

 

[Petorious]

Once again anything thundery forecasted for around here disappears on the day, can't see anything happening around here. Maybe south coast some where might see something as usual and that's only a "might".

[Windblade]

13 hours ago, Harry said:

Yeah hasn’t been great has it @Windblade. Almost every storm (and there were quite a few) slid past last year. Had a cracking storm here in mid May but nothing much else this year so far

Had one on the 5th (see my sig) a few rumbles and ic flashes but that's been my lot so far this year. I'm hoping for more but it's been a real stinker so far! I'm trying so hard not to be down about it but there have been times recently when I've seriously thought about giving up this hobby due to the constant disappointment. That's why I haven't been on the forums a lot recently as I don't want to come across as a moaner and depress everyone or make everyone fed up of my constant whingeing!

Edited June 28, 2021 by Windblade

[Windblade]

13 hours ago, Peachy said:

I'm just south of Oxford at the moment,  no storm yet but the sky above is gearing up for something 

 

Incredible pic! 

[Windblade]

Incredible HEAVY rain last night. Started about 8.30pm and was still going at 2am when I got up to use the loo!  I loved it - so relaxing, sent me right off to sleep again. No sparks though - there just doesn't seem to be a trigger around here recently.

Edited June 28, 2021 by Windblade

[Windblade]

12 hours ago, Supacell said:

There actually is, and it would be great if those who want to moan actually used it

 

 

Sorry! I would've joined the no storms club but as I've technically had a storm I can't! Trying to be more positive on here as don't want the good folk to get fed up of hearing me moan all the time - I'm actually quite a happy person in real life, honest! 

[StormLoser]

Grey, humid and damp here in Reigate with the chance to catch a bit of rain drifting by.

Little chance of any sun breaking through to drive convection. I suppose I could put a fan heater out on the patio to give it a boost?

I see there's yet another small 'Kent Clipper' making its way north west!  

With Estofex silent, and the Met Office about as reliable as a bit of seaweed, I'm not holding out much hope of any action today. Let's hope it changes.

[Storm_Sikher]

11 hours ago, Robbie Garrett said:

Supercell?

Yeah right, guess who's due to fly tomorrow to Lydd as part of my IR training. Will be embedded CBs all day long... 

Sorry for the late reply, No it wasn't a supercell, just an Arcus as far as I know.
Still waiting for a proper report on the 'tornado'

[alexisj9]

Well conditions in Dover, cloudy, foggy, light rain, muggy. Feels rather warm considering. 

[Nick F]

THUNDERSTORM WATCH - MON 28TH JUNE 2021

Issued 2021-06-28 07:08:40
Valid: 28/06/2021 0600 - 29/06/2021 0600

Forecast Details

Upper and collocated surface low will be slow-moving over NW France during Monday. Warm and moist plume will continue to advect west out of the Low Countries across S England during the day to the NE of low pressure, characterised by dew points of 15-16C. After a cloudy start, cloud breaks are forecast to develop inland from the south coast across southern counties of England, surface heating in sunny spells may yield 300-600 j/kg CAPE this afternoon where we see the sunny spells, this combined with lift from forecast E-W or WSW/ENE aligned breeze convergence zone developing will support a band of heavy showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Profiles will be less saturated aloft than yesterday, so lightning will be more likely. Some uncertainty over exact positioning of the CZ, most likely southern most counties from Devon to Kent south of the M4 / south of Thames through London. Places stuck under the showers/storms training along convergence zone may be subject to prolonged torrential downpours leading to flash-flooding – given rather moist surface airmass feeding convection. Storms may also produce hail locally and C-G lightning. Showers/storms should eventually fade after dark as surface heating fades.

Issued by: Nick Finnis

Cloud breaks forecast to develop from the Channel then inland from the south coast late morning onwards, though recent satellite suggests this may take longer east of IoW thanks to some rain spreading NW from far N of France across SE England next few hours.

UKV CAPE and wind charts show where convergence and greatest instability from surface heating in cloud breaks and thus likelihood of storms is forecast this afternoon - so south of M4 from Devon to Kent:

Edited June 28, 2021 by Nick F

[Mapantz]

Sun is poking out here. Temp heading towards 20°C and a dew point of 16°C.

[ChannelThunder]

UKV still interested in a very late show down here, as mentioned by Dan. I shan't hold my breath though!

[Mapantz]

1 minute ago, Lance M said:

UKV still interested in a very late show down here, as mentioned by Dan. I shan't hold my breath though!

Is it sunny where you are? I see blue skies your way, and some Cu bubbling up.

Just passed 21°C. Feels pretty ripe! Fingers crossed.

[alexisj9]

Looks like some showers building behind the rain band, might just be visibly showing us the unstable air arriving. It's getting brighter here now, think the sun will actually be out soon.

[ChannelThunder]

5 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Is it sunny where you are? I see blue skies your way, and some Cu bubbling up.

Just passed 21°C. Feels pretty ripe! Fingers crossed.

The sun is coming and going, quite a bit of low cloud around, but lots of blue sky towards the channel, where there's also some Ac Cas! Although it's not particularly 'thundery' looking compared to the Ac you get with plumes.

[amybonnie98]

Southampton looking south/south-east 

Edited June 28, 2021 by amybonnie98

[Guest]

Just popped over to the shops, feels pretty juicy out side. 

On XC you can clearly see the convergence line has now been setup. Somewhere a few miles inland from the Devon through to East Hants is going to cope so big RF totals today. 

 

[Super_Uwe]

1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

Is it sunny where you are? I see blue skies your way, and some Cu bubbling up.

Just passed 21°C. Feels pretty ripe! Fingers crossed.

Beautiful day in Salcombe, quite the turnaround after the mist this morning!

Didn't have my phone on my walk just now, but you can see some decent convection going to the north over Dartmoor and much further east. Also looks ripe for a good storm later on, if not necessarily here then not a million miles away!

[ChannelThunder]

Here goes the CZ 

[Sam jackson88]

One nuke going up to my South south-east and more to my north, amazing watching them blow up

[Sam jackson88]

6 minutes ago, Sam jackson88 said:

One nuke going up to my South south-east and more to my north, amazing watching them blow up

Looking even better its shooting up

[StormLoser]

Ah-hah. The line has become visible with showers popping up. It runs just north of Southampton and curves down towards Brighton to the east.  Not sure about the West Country - not living there it is a bit off my radar (sorry - sheepish smile).

Still murky and cloudy in Reigate. No sign of the sun though it may start breaking through soon. That could explain why showers directly south of us are not popping up?

Edited June 28, 2021 by StormLoser