July 2021 CET & EWP forecast contests

[Roger J Smith]

(a) CET Temperature forecast contest -- averages and extremes

... all years since 1981 are shown for comparison ... warmest 13 are bold type, middle 14 are italic type and coolest 13 are underlined.

 

25.2 ... 29th, 1948, and 25th, 2019, warmest daily means

19.7 ... 2006 (warmest July)

19.5 ... 1983 (2nd warmest)

19.1 ... 2018 (3rd warmest)

18.8 ... 1783 (4th warmest)

18.7 ... 1852, 1976 (tied 5th warmest)

18.6 ... 1995 (7th warmest)

18.5 ... 1921 (8th warmest)

18.4 ... 1757, 1808 (t 9th warmest)

18.3 ... 2013 

18.2 ... 1989

18.0 ... 1994

17.7 ... 1999, 2014 

17.6 ... 2003

17.5 ... 2019

17.3 ... 1991 

17.2 ... 2001 

17.1 ... 2010 

16.9 ... 1984, 1990, 2005, 2016 

16.8 ... 2017 ... average for 1991-2020 and 2001-2020

16.7 ... 1997 ... average for 1981-2010

16.5 ... 1982, 1996 ... average for 1971-2000

16.2 ... 1985, 1992, 2008

16.1 ... 2009 ... average for 1961-1990, also for 1901-2000 and 1701-1800

16.0 ... 2002 ... average for all years 1659-2020

15.9 ... 1986, 1987, 2015 

15.8 ... 2004 ... average for 1801-1900

15.7 ... 2020

15.6 ... average for 1659-1700

15.5 ... 1981, 1998, 2000, 2012 and lowest 30-year average 1671-1700 (15.47)

15.2 ... 1993, 2007, 2011 mean and coldest since 1988 (14.7)

14.7 ... 1988 (tied with 1980 as coldest since 1965, and with four other years as tied 35th coldest)

14.0 ... 1965 CET (tied 11th coldest with 1674, 1685, 1713)

13.9 ... 1919 (10th coldest)

13.8 ... 1725, 1840, 1841 (tied 7th coldest)

13.7 ... 1888, 1922 (tied 5th coldest)

13.6 ... 1879 (4th coldest)

13.5 ... 1695,1802 (tied 2nd coldest)

13.4 ... 1816 (coldest July)

 8.7 ... 20th (1836) coldest daily mean

____________________________________________________________________________________________

Enter your July forecast by end of the day Wednesday 30th June without penalty,

or during the first three days of July with increasing time penalties.

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(b) Optional EWP contest

Predict the England and Wales mean precipitation in mm for July 2021. The contest uses the Hadley EWP version which runs from 1766 to 2020. Here are some averages and extremes as a guide:

 

182.6 __ wettest (1828)

140.7 __ wettest since 1981 (2009)

_93.9 __ highest 30-year average (1773-1802 and 1775-1804)

_79.2 __ average for 1766-2020

_72.0 __ average for 1991-2020

_67.3 __ average for 1981-2010

_57.4 __ lowest 30-year average (1971-2000)

_26.3 __ driest since 1981 (1999)

_15.8 __ driest since 1825 (1911)

__8.2 __ driest (1825) __ second driest was 1800 (9.1 mm)

_____________________________________________________________________________________

recent values: 2020 _ 69.0 ... 2019 _ 71.7 ... 2018 _ 39.6 ... 2017 _ 105.7 ... 2016 _ 43.6

... 2015 _ 92.1 mm ... 2014 _ 54.7 ... 2013 _ 54.0 ... 2012 _ 120.7 ... 2011 _ 65.2 ... 2010 _ 67.9 mm

 

Enter your EWP forecast with your CET forecast, same deadlines. 

Maximum score 10.0, late penalties 0.3 per day.

 

Good luck !!! 

[Timmytour]

Going early with a  cool and wet shout! 

14.9C and 111mm for me please.....  

[Frigid]

After a warm June, I have a feeling that won't last into July.

For now, going for 15.5c and 120mm 

[Bobd29]

Could be anything so: 16.8C and 44mm please.

[Shillitocettwo]

Although the start of the month might be no great shakes, heat will intensify and we are looking at a hot sunny second half. CET 18.9.C , no record but very respectable. EWP 77mm, enough rain first half and an odd thunderstorm second month for this.

[JeffC]

16.4C and 75 mm please

[Earthshine]

20.1°C and 50mm please

[Polar Gael]

18.1°C and 60.2mm for me please. 

[SteveB]

16.3c and 136mm please. 

[virtualsphere]

17.3C and 82mm please

[damianslaw]

Hoping for a much warmer July than last year here. I think we had one day with a max above 20 degrees!

I'll wait until end of the month with my prediction. 

Edited June 21, 2021 by damianslaw

[Typhoon John]

17.0C please

[Summer18]

17.9C and 66mm please 

Edited June 25, 2021 by Summer18

[rwtwm]

17.6c and 45mm please.

I'm going to take the ECM extended at its word here. Mostly high pressure dominated, but occasionally slipping north and west to allow cooler spells. The occasional front toppling over the top.

 

[Weather26]

15.6C and 96MM please.

[Roger J Smith]

16.1 and 87.2 mm rain. A slightly warmer version of 1988. 

[damianslaw]

12 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

16.1 and 87.2 mm rain. A slightly warmer version of 1988. 

I hope not, July 1988 was a washout here and consistently cool. No thank you! I'll reserve thoughts on Wednesday. Hoping for at least one spell of dry sunny very warm weather, maxes 25-28 degrees, that's what I expect from July, much more so than August. July is our king summer month for warm dry sunny weather, August usually delivers warm wet weather.

Edited June 27, 2021 by damianslaw

[Methuselah]

I'll go for 18.8C and 80mm please Roger.

[Met.]

15.0°C, 113mm.

[The PIT]

Going for 17C and 45mm of rain.

[emmett garland]

17.7 and 69mm please

[DR(S)NO]

17.0c and 75mm thank you please

[Robbie Garrett]

16*C and 155mm

[summer blizzard]

17.1C, 90mm.

 

 

 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

18c and 41mm please.