Weather in 2050

[cheeky_monkey]

15 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And so have been global temperatures, though not as fast as some of the more extreme-end forecasters have posited. You might benefit from running a simple experiment: see how much light of differing wavelength passes through CO2. It is certain that, as is the case with the speed of light in a vacuum, the results will always be the same. Unless, of course, a 'warmist' has sabotaged your equipment!

no one doubts that the world is warming or disputing the science behind CO2 emissions..the issue here is all the models (much like Covid models) have always over predicted the amount warming that will occur in the next 30 years and what those effects will be..they always seem to exaggerate the consequences of a warming climate and sell them as this will happen and not this is one of many variable outcomes that could happen and here are all the others...the media doesn't help either by spinning reports and models and telling people we are all doomed..all the gumpf about rampant natural disasters displacing and killing millions of people through crop failures, floods and rising sea levels  just hasn't happened..so you can understand why people become skeptical about the next report that portrays our imminent extinction

[Methuselah]

10 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

no one doubts that the world is warming or disputing the science behind CO2 emissions..the issue here is all the models (much like Covid models) have always over predicted the amount warming that will occur in the next 30 years and what those effects will be..they always seem to exaggerate the consequences of a warming climate and sell them as this will happen and not this is one of many variable outcomes that could happen and here are all the others...the media doesn't help either by spinning reports and models and telling people we are all doomed..all the gumpf about rampant natural disasters displacing and killing millions of people through crop failures, floods and rising sea levels  just hasn't happened..so you can understand why people become skeptical about the next report that portrays our imminent extinction

All of them?  

[cheeky_monkey]

38 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

All of them?  

yep because the media always latch onto the top percentile and portray that as fact ..when we are in fact tracking closer to the bottom percentile 

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

yep because the media always latch onto the top percentile and portray that as fact ..when we are in fact tracking closer to the bottom percentile 

Well, that's a combination of sensationalist media and a scientifically illiterate populace, isn't it? There's nae much wrong with the forecasts, for which the error is obvious?

[summer blizzard]

While there's a question over how negative the impact will be for parts of the world (the worst impacts will generally be in places outside the west) and indeed how quickly/how much we should devote to ending climate change I don't think there's much doubt it's occuring, not least since data taking into solar and volcanic activity suggests that we should have actually cooled last century.

That said the media and vested interests (well meaning or not) can be guilty of alarmism which as we can see has generated some skepticism.

I think of it a bit like Brexit. The media portrayed a stonking recession as the outcome, finances destroyed and property collapse ect.. because they took the worst case scenario for the headline. As people like me who read the treasury and imf analysis found, actually the median most likely forecast was for much milder impacts (shockingly this has turned out to be the case, hurrah for experts but boo for media/doom mongers).

Edited August 17, 2021 by summer blizzard

[Bradley in Kent]

On 17/08/2021 at 16:45, Ed Stone said:

All of them?  

These type of graphs alongside the time series in the Met Office climate summaries are why I think we will still get snow in 2050. Imagine the rolling 5 year average going up another two degrees, you'll stoll have cold members. 

Now as some have mentioned already, we'll probably lose those marginal snow events especially early winter with higher dew points. However BTFEs will be cold enough for centuries to come!

So as to not repeat any more what others have said and to add something new, I reckon we'll be seeing noticeablely higher dew points in 2050. I'd love to find historic data on dew point trends, but I wouldn't mind betting they've climbed! 

The consequences: less evaporative cooling with cold rain, bigger hailstones, more fog, stickier summers.

Overall I think past 2050 we'll be like New Zealand, which is  already very similar anyway.

[Derecho]

12 hours ago, winterfreak said:

An interesting thread with some interesting answers. For me, personally, being that most forecasts are hardly what I’d call accurate, I don’t think anyone has a hope in hell of predicting our weather 29 years hence. Not a clue. Get them right 5 days out first before trying to make 30 year ones

But forecasting regional weather on a particular date isn't the same compared to forecasting increases in global temperatures over years and decades is it? That's comparing apples and oranges.

[B87]

In 2050 we will still be waiting for an August like 1995.

[Derecho]

3 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

All of them?  

Same graph up to 2020. Global temperatures  from 2016-2020 fall into the warmer half of the most likely temperature projections. Right hand figure shows the different emissions scenarios.

Edited August 17, 2021 by Quicksilver1989

[winterfreak]

10 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

But forecasting regional weather on a particular date isn't the same compared to forecasting increases in global temperatures over years and decades is it? That's comparing apples and oranges.

The public are supposed to be convinced, are they not? When forecasts a few days out are wrong why should they believe what 30 year predictions will be?

[Derecho]

Just now, winterfreak said:

The public are supposed to be convinced, are they not? When forecasts a few days out are wrong why should they believe what 30 year predictions will be?

Like I said, weather forecasting and climate projections are completely different things. Weather is what is happening at any moment. Climate is weather over an extended period of time and therefore fluctuations due to variations in the weather cancel out to give a mean state. With warmer temperatures and more moisture, the probability of heatwaves and flooding increases. Weather is not something that can be forecast for a particular day in 30 years time. Global climate however, we can be almost certain will get warmer and that brings increasing risks.

[qwertyK]

Had to put the heating on yesterday. And wear a coat out. In Essex! It’s August! August used to be a good month for warm weather but now it seems all the heat dies by end of July and August is early autumn...

[Daniel*]

16 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Same graph up to 2020. Global temperatures  from 2016-2020 fall into the warmer half of the most likely temperature projections. Right hand figure shows the different emissions scenarios.

Bottom half of 2021 currently coolest year globally since 2014.

Edited August 18, 2021 by Daniel*

[Derecho]

2 hours ago, Daniel* said:

Bottom half of 2021 currently coolest year globally since 2014.

Yup, the recent La Nina has certainly helped with that. If we have another La Nina at the end of the year then we may sneak below 2018 though that will also depend on what northern hemisphere synoptics do. If we get a split polar vortex and more in the way of cold air outbreaks over the continents towards November and December, that may suppress global temperatures a bit like what they did in February.

[qwertyK]

2 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yup, the recent La Nina has certainly helped with that. If we have another La Nina at the end of the year then we may sneak below 2018 though that will also depend on what northern hemisphere synoptics do. If we get a split polar vortex and more in the way of cold air outbreaks over the continents towards November and December, that may suppress global temperatures a bit like what they did in February.

When is an El Niño due? The last proper one was in 2015 which led to that awfully warm wet December, and then there was a weak El Niño in 2019 that led to 21C in feb 

[Derecho]

4 minutes ago, qwertyK said:

When is an El Niño due? The last proper one was in 2015 which led to that awfully warm wet December, and then there was a weak El Niño in 2019 that led to 21C in feb 

El Nino events tend to occur irregularly every 2-7 years. 2015 was the last big event so I think after a moderate La Nina this winter we'll probably get another El Nino next year.

In terms of UK weather, there probably is some impact from ENSO but how this ties in with other influences is uncertain. El Nino years tend to produce milder Novembers and Decembers with a weaker Atlantic later in the winter with La Nina's doing the opposite. This isn't a simple relationship however.

2019s mild weather was triggered by an SSW, which caused an area of the polar vortex to fall over northern Canada and this helped up ramp up the strength of the Atlantic and gave us some mild southerlies or south-westerlies here.

[Geordiesnow]

5 hours ago, qwertyK said:

Had to put the heating on yesterday. And wear a coat out. In Essex! It’s August! August used to be a good month for warm weather but now it seems all the heat dies by end of July and August is early autumn...

Yet September seems more and more of a summer month in terms of decent settled weather! 

By 2050, I suspect Autumn will be slow to get going across the northern hemisphere as the PV will be slower to form because of a lack of sea ice and warm SSTS in the Arctic ocean which means snowcover being delayed to get going so its going to take longer for any cold air to develop especially in September. I saw a little bit of that last year, September started slow snowcover wise and sea ice extent was quite low and the SSTS was very warm so goodness knows if the worst case scenario did occur how long it will take for Autumn to start showing its hand

As for winter, for me I can't see why cold weather can't happen with snowfall but as others alluded too, maybe some set ups will be less potant than they used to be although as 2018 showed, an easterly can still deliver in the classic way if the PV drops down into Scandinavia. 

Aa for summer, we are seeing heat building and upper air temperatures more widely higher and I expect this to continue, I suspect we will see more hot pools of hot air being stronger. A typical heat dome that builds over Spain will no doubt make getting upper air temperatures of 25C  hitting the UK more likely but this is just in plume events. A more bog standard area of high pressure is not likely to bring such hot air aloft imo. 

[Geordiesnow]

5 hours ago, qwertyK said:

Had to put the heating on yesterday. And wear a coat out. In Essex! It’s August! August used to be a good month for warm weather but now it seems all the heat dies by end of July and August is early autumn...

Yet September seems more and more of a summer month in terms of decent settled weather! 

By 2050, I suspect Autumn will be slow to get going across the northern hemisphere as the PV will be slower to form because of a lack of sea ice and warm SSTS in the Arctic ocean which means snowcover being delayed to get going so its going to take longer for any cold air to develop especially in September. I saw a little bit of that last year, September started slow snowcover wise and sea ice extent was quite low and the SSTS was very warm so goodness knows if the worst case scenario did occur how long it will take for Autumn to start showing its hand

As for winter, for me I can't see why cold weather can't happen with snowfall but as others alluded too, maybe some set ups will be less potant than they used to be although as 2018 showed, an easterly can still deliver in the classic way if the PV drops down into Scandinavia. 

Aa for summer, we are seeing heat building and upper air temperatures more widely higher and I expect this to continue, I suspect we will see more hot pools of hot air being stronger. A typical heat dome that builds over Spain will no doubt make getting upper air temperatures of 25C  hitting the UK more likely but this is just in plume events. A more bog standard area of high pressure is not likely to bring such hot air aloft imo. 

[Derecho]

23 hours ago, Geordiesnow said:

Yet September seems more and more of a summer month in terms of decent settled weather! 

By 2050, I suspect Autumn will be slow to get going across the northern hemisphere as the PV will be slower to form because of a lack of sea ice and warm SSTS in the Arctic ocean which means snowcover being delayed to get going so its going to take longer for any cold air to develop especially in September. I saw a little bit of that last year, September started slow snowcover wise and sea ice extent was quite low and the SSTS was very warm so goodness knows if the worst case scenario did occur how long it will take for Autumn to start showing its hand

As for winter, for me I can't see why cold weather can't happen with snowfall but as others alluded too, maybe some set ups will be less potant than they used to be although as 2018 showed, an easterly can still deliver in the classic way if the PV drops down into Scandinavia. 

Aa for summer, we are seeing heat building and upper air temperatures more widely higher and I expect this to continue, I suspect we will see more hot pools of hot air being stronger. A typical heat dome that builds over Spain will no doubt make getting upper air temperatures of 25C  hitting the UK more likely but this is just in plume events. A more bog standard area of high pressure is not likely to bring such hot air aloft imo. 

Agree with pretty much all this post.

I think one critique of the 2050 summer met office video is that it seems to depict a long hot dry spell building over time with a Scandi High dominating. I think in the future that will be very difficult to achieve. My reasoning for that is the land masses will warm up faster then the oceans. Any southerly I believe will quickly send us into a heatwave. 

However due to the increasing temperature gradient, this will just encourage low pressure to deepen to the west. I think the hottest days in the future will be dominated by plumes. In the past, the hottest days tended to occur under a prolonged spell of high pressure. Recent summers in general have become warmer, wetter and plumier.

So short sharp bursts of heat like 1st July 2015, 31st July 2020 I expect to become more commonplace with the potential to go over 40C. If a plume failed to break down, then I think by the middle of this century mid 40s aren't beyond the realms of possibility, but they would require every single piece of the jigsaw to come together.

We will still get summers like 2018 but they will become less frequent IMO and high pressure will no longer be the dominating contributor to the hottest summer days, unless of course, pressure somehow built immediately following a plume...