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Storms and Convective discussion - 25th July 2021 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

Following some big storms for parts of the south early yesterday an active period of weather likely to continue for at least the first half of this coming week. Today the storm risk is in the southeast, with the risk then becoming more widespread over the following days as our resident area of low pressure ambles slowly northwards.

Please continue discussions here. 

Old thread here

Please remember to keep on topic and use the relevant No Storms thread for complaints about the lack of storms.

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Posted
  • Location: essex/suffolk/cambs border
  • Location: essex/suffolk/cambs border

Drizzle here in West Suffolk. Temp 17.8. Humidity 87%. Feels very Muggy. Good luck all

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A tricky day ahead with a range of possibilities from bust to some pretty strong and slow moving surface based storms. First we need to shift some of the clag - which can take longer than modelled but if we can there’s tonnes of moisture to tuck into. Could see dew points of 20C later in the south. 

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, high teens to low 20's,sunny and convective
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset.
5 minutes ago, Norfolk Sheep said:

Weather seems to have morphed into November...

Church Lawford (106m)

2021-07-25 08:00-15.9 °C here,doesnt seem to look or feel like a convective day.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
27 minutes ago, karyo said:

The Euro 4 shows a line of torrential downpours over London for this afternoon!

AROME, WRF-NMM and Euro4 all painting a similar picture a pronounced line stretching from somewhere in EA southwestwards across the London region and through the other side.

That line could as ever be a 10-20 miles further east or west and if the line does not move far very quickly, could mean some very high rainfall totals. 

Edited by Harry
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
9 minutes ago, Harry said:

AROME, WRF-NMM and Euro4 all painting a similar picture a pronounced line stretching from somewhere in EA southwestwards across the London region and through the other side.

That line could as ever be a 10-20 miles further east or west and if the line does not move far very quickly, could mean some very high rainfall totals. 

Yes, the convergence zone has the potential to re-create what happened nearly two weeks ago when parts of London were affected by flooding.

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Hmmm I think places east of Southampton will be ok, further west touch and go, a lot of precipitation coming from barely negligible radar returns and it looks like several hours of this to come. Was really optimistic at 7am for here, much less so now. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hatfield Peverel near Chelmsford Essex
  • Location: Hatfield Peverel near Chelmsford Essex

Brightening up in Maldon, could be ground zero for the worst today haven't had a thunderstorm in a while

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Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

Hmmm: for SE:

SkewT suggests moderately convective atmosphere with possible sparse and scattered thunderstorms. However, no DLS, no DpD, and CIN darting in and out all afternoon. CZ looks like it depends on isolation, and at the moment, cool but humid, and completely covered skies with time ticking by.

Showers, some heavy, seem likely. Whether they upgrade to t/storms remains to be seen.

dls.thumb.gif.1b538bb1b1a0b370b7542f46e279c978.gifskewt.thumb.gif.8054fe4c4f2899b700f85f3f50653849.gif

Edited by VillagePlank
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Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

If I had to place a bet on heaviest of showers (read: possible thunderstorms) I'd go for E Anglia and Essex if (and only if) the sun comes out for a few hours from now. I think it's broke for Kent, and E Sussex - at least for now.

cz2.thumb.gif.93045f351991637a58d11e47f9c25257.gifcz1.thumb.gif.917c4a50ef94607e2131ad82f449b259.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire

A little note to anyone thinking negatively. Here yesterday was extensively dull and sometimes damp until 16.00 then an hour of sunshine as well as convergence set up a very thundery evening!

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea bubble East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Lightning, lightning and erm thunder
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea bubble East Sussex

I’ve got 57% chance of storms at 4pm with torrential rain - anyone want to guess how accurate that’s looking? Currently 18, humidity 89%, DP 16

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Posted
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything unusual
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
22 minutes ago, Electricmumma said:

I’ve got 57% chance of storms at 4pm with torrential rain - anyone want to guess how accurate that’s looking? Currently 18, humidity 89%, DP 16


such predictions are better off in the bin. 
I’ve had storms on 0% before.

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Posted
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything unusual
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex

Not too much to report so far, some steady rain earlier, then a bit of brightness, now the rain has returned. 

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Posted
  • Location: Congleton, Cheshire
  • Location: Congleton, Cheshire

Thought to myself this morning it would be so nice if anywhere other than the South have a storm chance....i look at the forecast and to my shock and horror yes its the same as always, the South hogging all the good stuff. I just want a raindrop up here, none at all for nearly 7 weeks now, all the grass is brown. 

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

Brightening up in central London. 

The radar shows a nice line of heavy showers to the east. They have intensified in the last half an hour.

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Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge,Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge,Kent
9 minutes ago, VillagePlank said:

Skies just showing signs of clearing, here in Rochester ....

Got storm to my north west ,couple of rumbles of thunder ...

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Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge,Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge,Kent
Just now, TN9 said:

Got storm to my north west ,couple of rumbles of thunder ...

Seven oaks way I'm guessing  ..

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