Scotland Weather discussion

[lorenzo]

[101_North]

Bit of a non-event here at the minute. Bit of heavy rain earlier but we've missed the worst of it so far. Not that windy either although it's due to pick up later 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

22 hours ago, lorenzo said:

Hello Hoolie ! Bit of a lively one

Briefly chatting to colleagues today - realised that the naming conventions do stick from time to time, Arwen was referenced.. albeit completely different evolution.  But - it's then a double edged sword - folks may think - named storm ( equal in severity to Arwen), and, if it doesn't work out as severe - then, loss of confidence in naming.. ( Sunday should have been named anyway too). What to do !

This is my fave of the sat pics I've seen. Best cyclone definition and even the energy to the south which trails back to the Atlantic

The biggest fault with the M.O and warnings particularly in relation to wind storms is INCONSISTENCIES it was the exact same last winter where there were at least 2 systems which even were categorised on the NWS OPC data as bomb cyclones yet remained nameless from our M.O. Go back to the sting jet and 90mph gusts over the western Isles there were 0 warnings and again NO NAMED STORM, there's always the debate about amount of people impacted but my view is that's a rather obsolete viewpoint as it shouldn't matter if 5 people or 5000 etc are in a risk of inclement conditions. I knew Agnes wasn't going to be as meaningful up here with wind risk however given the SRH values with very real tornado threat plus ongoing rain which will absolutely lead to flooding seeing the amounts Southwest West and Northwestern Scot have received circa 1 week there should be amber warnings at the least which is a easy observation to note from even a rookie meteorology view. A name brings an increased awareness a la Bawbag but the honest truth here is Mother nature ain't bothering one bit if it's named or nameless, the same conditions are happening regardless that's the blunt reality here.  

[Snowandrocks]

We've had some heavyish spells of rain over the last hour or so but despite the met office automated forecast showing the peak the wind speeds due around now, it's only moderately windy out there.

Certainly nothing noteworthy yet and was much windier over the weekend (with no warning issued).

[Kayemill]

Power has just gone again. Seems windy now 

[Quinach]

A bit of flooding in the usual places on the roads around Kemnay and Kintore just now - unsurprising as some torrential downpours this evening.

Wind picking up noticeably in the last 30mins, was inconsequential up to then.

Now consequential as its blown over one of the portable greenhouses - just as well it was only filled with the kids outdoor shoes (had enough of the mud and other mess they were bringing into the house!).

Mild though, 14c going by the car thermometer.

[dryfie]

Really seems a bit of a non-event again, with less rain than expected last few days, and just a few Zephyrs ( and Zodiacs) this evening.  No audible wind, which is my measure of strength.

[SW Saltire]

It did finally pick up a bit, an official site near me at Dundrennan (right near the coast though) got a max gust of 61mph. I’d say we’ve reached 50 odd so more than Sunday, windows are creaking, letterbox flapping and the audibly wind roaring over the TV.

Can’t really think what my worst storm has been, was discussing this with my girlfriend. I think climbing Hellvelyn 4/5 hours after the peak of storm Arwen was a poor call in hindsight. Skiddaw was ferocious last autumn, so much so my eyes swole up from how solid the rain was. Can’t say i’ve witnessed any storms cause structural damage on low ground.

 

Rainfall - Another 30mm approximately so far, will find out exact figures in the morning.

Given how dry the first 10 days were it’s impressive we’ll now be conservatively on about 185mm so 185% of average. Will be the wettest month of 2023 although third wettest in the last 12 months as Oct and Nov 22 brought 430mm between them.

Edited September 27, 2023 by SW Saltire

[Sanserit]

Evening all, 19.5mm of rain fallen in my wee bit of Deeside since 4.30pm and one very unsettled dog thanks to the gusts of wind and the neighbour's various piles of carp blowing about in the wind - fastest gust hit 28km around 30 minutes ago (not entirely convinced the windspeeds being shown on all our local stations are accurate).  It'll be interesting to see if there are any trees down on the way to work in Stonehaven tomorrow morning.

Edited September 27, 2023 by Sanserit

[Ravelin]

Standard autumnal weather here really. Weather station up the road say max gust of just over 60km/h and around 10mm of rain, both of which were easily beaten by the weather around a week ago. Nothing that unusual and wouldn't have expected it to mean we are in both wind and rain warning areas. 

[Norrance]

As others have reported elsewhere not much out of the ordinary here. Around10 mms of rain since lunchtime and a strong SE wind. Nothing that warranted a warning on either count.

Edited September 27, 2023 by Norrance

[Ricky67]

Models seem to be aligning towards low 70s here next weekend.  That'd be something else for early-mid October.  

[Halfamilefromnowhere]

Very windy here today gusting regularly into the 40 mph, mild though

[Quinach]

A stiff SW wind but what a cracking start to October.

Lengthy sunny spells and 19c, feeling warm in that sun especially with some shelter from the wind.

[skifreak]

23°c spread on ensembles by mid October for Fort William! This one caught my eye…

[Northernlights]

Fine day here too. Took in a bunch of expectant cows to be under camera as darker nights take over.  Been busy calving cows this last week and still cleaning/greasing machines and putting them away for winter. Up to 18c earlier massive grass growth as well in the fields.

[Jo Farrow]

SEPA and Network Rail already flagging up the heavy and persistent rain later this week, with disruption to transport likely.  Two Met Office early Yellow Rain warnings issued. 

@NetworkRailSCOT   "In response to the heavy rain & strong winds that we're expecting over the next few days, we've had an extreme weather conference call with our partners from across Scotland's Railway."

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

September Statistics

North Scot

174.6mm Rainfall 

1946 178.3mm 

 

Winter of 1946–47 in the United Kingdom - Wikipedia

EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

1927

173.3MM

1927 (25th-26th December): WORST CHRISTMAS PERIOD BLIZZARD IN A CENTURY

During the late evening of the 25th, what is regarded as one of the worst SNOWSTORMS in the 20th century occurred. Most of the country experienced snow, but the south bore the brunt: undrifted depths up to 60-70cm over higher ground, with drifts in varying places up to 15 feet or more [over 4.5m] - many roads blocked (some for a week) with vehicles stranded. The snow was noted as 'soft & clingy', bringing down many telephone lines - at this time few such were in underground ducts.

172.4mm 1840

 1840/41
(winter) Severe winter. All three winter months had CET anomalies considerably below average.

 

 1919 (January):

The first major SNOWFALL of 1919 occurred in the first week of January between the 3rd and 4th. HEAVY SNOW occurred in the Midlands and northern England, causing damage to telegraph wires in Derbyshire and 35cm of SNOW to fall at Buxton, Derbyshire. On the 3rd, 22cm fell in Manchester. This was followed at the end of the month by another HEAVY SNOWFALL in the Midlands and northern England between the 27th/28th.

 1919 (March/April):

A COLD couple of spring months (CET anomalies -1.6C and -0.8C respectively) and one of the WETTEST Marchs over England & Wales (using the EWP series); April had near-average RAINFALL.
During March 1919 there were several falls of SNOW in the London area, the heaviest fall being on the 27th with a depth of 23cm noted.
In April, the widespread deep SNOWFALL as late as the 27th was most remarkable. It was deepest in the eastern half of England, including the London area, where in many places there was 30 cm of level snow.

180.1mm 1918

2012 170.9MM

Northern S mean temp for September 

12.2C

11.5c 2009

11.9c 1890 

 

1890/1891
(Winter) The winter of 1890/91 was remarkable for its long duration, from 25th November to 22nd January, rather than for the intensity of the frost, though December 1890 was the coldest such-named month in the CET record (q.v.)
During this period (last week of November to third week of January), the average temperature was below 0 degC over nearly the whole of England and Wales and below (minus) 1 degC in East Anglia and the south-east Midlands. Skating in Regent's Park occurred on 43 days, the thickness of the ice exceeding 9 inches (circa 23cm) but the frost penetrated in the ground to a depth of only about 30cm. At Worcestershire, on the Rivers Severn & Avon, the ice was thick enough to allow ordinary road traffic to pass over the ice-covered river and to permit sheep & pigs to be roasted on the surface. Ice floes were reported in the lower Thames and the Estuary.
The first heavy snowfall of the year (1890) occurred between the 25th and 28th November with heavy snow falling over England, especially Kent when up to 60 cm of snow was reported, with 40 cm of snow falling at Ipswich, Suffolk. In Sussex, 30 cm of snow fell at Crowborough on the 26th. In the Ashdown Forest the snow caused evergreen trees to be damaged on the 27th.
A heavy snowfall occurred in England and Wales between the 18th and 20th December. A snowfall of 45 cm occurred at South Petherwin, Cornwall on the 20th, with over 30 cm of snow falling at Batheaston, Somerset on the same day. On the 18th, Llanfrechfa Grange, Gwent had just over 20 cm of snow, and on the 19th, Chepstow, Gloucestershire had a snowfall of 18 cm.
(CEPB): The synoptic pattern was dominated by a large anticyclone covering northern Europe with a marked ridge extending over southern England, giving almost continuous east or northeast winds. [ similar severity to 1946/47 ]
The CET value for the winter (DJF) was 1.5degC, representing an anomaly on the all-series mean of around minus 2C, and compared with 'modern-day' winters, something like minus 3C! In particular, December 1890, with a CET value of -0.8degC/~5C below average, is the coldest December in the CET record. 6,
18,
CET

 1891
(March) 9-13th March 1891, easterly "blizzard"**. Heavy, fine powdery snow and strong easterly winds raged across SW England, southern England and Wales, with over half a million trees being blown down, as well as a number of telegraph poles. On the 9th (and later?), great snowstorm in the west of England, trains buried for days: E-NE gale, shipwrecks, many lives lost. (Eden notes: 220 people dead; 65 ships foundered in the English Channel; 6000 sheep perished; countless trees uprooted; 14 trains stranded in Devon alone.) Although the West Country was the worst affected, southern England, the Midlands, and south Wales also suffered. snowdrifts were 'huge' around some houses in the London - would be accounted a most remarkable sight nowadays! A man was reported found dead at Dorking, Surrey, while snowdrifts of 3.5 metres were recorded at Dulwich, London and Dartmouth, Devon. At Torquay and Sidmouth, Devon over 30 cm of snow fell.
**This may be the first time in the UK that the word 'blizzard' was used. Thought to derive from a German expression: " Der sturm kommt blitzartig", which translates as "The storm comes/came lightning-like". 17

 1891
(May) On the 18th May 1891 snow fell over a wide area in the Midlands and East Anglia, to a depth of 15cm.

SCOTLAND EAST 12.8C MEAN TEMPERATURE 

2010 11.1c 

2009 11.9C

 

 11.7C 1953 

1954 (end January/early February):

SEVERE weather with bitterly cold conditions affected many eastern, central & southern areas of England from January 29th through the first week of February, as pressure remained high over Scandinavia (coupling with a strong ridge from the North Atlantic) & low over the near continent. The icy weather extended on initially strong, 'biting' east or northeast winds to Cornwall & the Isles of Scilly: day-time maximum TEMPERATURES at normally mild spots such as Falmouth failed to rise above FREEZING for several days. SNOW was a significant factor for many across southern Britain, with villages in Kent cut-off as snowdrifts of over 2 metres were reported. It was even harsher on the continent. (some of this from 'Weather Eye' / Issue 19 / Ian Currie)

1866/67

1866
(December) The final heavy snowfall of 1866 occurred on the 30th December causing many roads in East Anglia to become impassable, and for a 2.5 metre snowdrift to be found in Regent Street, London. [ see also entry below for early January, 1867.] x

124.2mm  1867 
(January) A snowstorm occurred between the 1st & 2nd, 1867 causing great hindrance to railway traffic. [ q.v. entry above for late December. ] Snowdrifts of 6 metres were recorded while 20cm of snow fell on the morning of the 2nd in the Home Counties [Presumably the original depths were in feet]. On the 10th, heavy snow blocked roads and railways in London. South Shields, Tyne and Wear and Peterborough, Cambridgeshire also received large amounts of snow as well as the rest of the east coast of England. Dover and Deal in Kent and Brighton, East Sussex, became completely cut off. More heavy snow occurred between the 22nd and 23rd January, with extensive snow in eastern parts of Scotland, blocking railways. 75 cm of snow fell in Aberdeen, with snowdrifts up to 6m high. The very cold weather with snow was also reported by John Oram from Co. Mayo, Connaught in NW Ireland - I intrepret his comments to imply that the event there was most unusual.

 1876
(January) After a mild start, it turned much colder. On the 21st January, a heavy snowfall / blizzard: 14 deaths occurred as two trains collided near Peterborough, Cambridgeshire, because one of the drivers was blinded by the blizzard causing the train to over run the signals. Snow on the cables and arms had forced all the signals into the 'clear' position.

1875 had 125.8mm

1857 124.5mm

1858
(mid-February
to
early March) A period of persistent cold set in during the middle part of February and ended sometime in the second week of March. In Connaught (NW Ireland) in specifically, the frost was noted as 'hard' on occasion, which suggests a strong anticyclonic spell given the location of the reports. As the event gave way, which occurred 10th/11th March in Ireland, then significant snow was recorded -

127.4mm 2010

2023 123.6mm

WEST S

2ND HIGHEST MEAN SEPT AT 13.5C

^^^ 12.6c 1890 

12.1 2010 12.2 2009

1934 saw 203.1mm

 

1934 (late October/early November):

A WINTRY spell much of the UK 30th October - 2nd November: On the last two days of October, parts of Scotland had HEAVY SNOWFALL with West Linton, Borders having up to 20cm; the Islands of Lewis and Harris had HEAVY SNOWFALL between 1st & 2nd November. Further south, SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS fell widely across the English Midlands & the SE of England on the 31st October. 5 cm level snow was recorded at Belvoir Castle in Leicestershire & a covering was observed, at least for a time, across the Chilterns [hardly surprising], but apparently snow for the most part in these areas melted rapidly before registering an official 'snow-lying' day.

as noted above 1966 which came with 206.7MM  

1864 

208.5mm

 

 1865
(January &
February) Heavy snow fell in the last week of January, 1865 between the 25th and the 31st, and there were further significant snow events throughout February in many parts of Britain. The snow averaged about 22 cm depth in some places, with snowdrifts of up to four and a half metres. In South Wales the snowfall is said to have been unequalled for forty years. Temperatures over lying snow cover were sometimes as low as -15degC.

 

1879/80
(late Autumn
& Winter) November to January .. notably and persistently cold again (see above) by CET series. Compared with continental Europe (see 2. below), the winter was not so severe, but deaths from cold were reported and evergreens were killed. On the 4th December, 1879, the temperature of (minus) 23degF (circa (minus) 31degC) was recorded at Blackadder, Berwickshire though this is not recognised due to poor exposure and lack of certified instrument. Being part of a severe winter, many reports of rivers frozen over. At Exeter, the River Exe was completely covered in ice. (Devon Co.C web site)
December 1879 was the coldest month of the 19th century in France & central Europe, and the cold persisted into January 1880; the Dutch waterways were frozen for nearly two months and in Paris, fifty people died of cold.
28th December, 1879: TAY BRIDGE DISASTER.
The original Tay Bridge (3km/1.85mi) railway crossing was the scene of a disaster during the evening when a section of the bridge was blown away in a storm as a train was crossing over it from south to north. Circa 75 deaths. Some tornadic activity evident as waterspouts were observed in the vicinity. However, even without any such activity, Lamb has stated that 'straight-line' winds in the area were in excess of the 100 mph that the contemporary enquiry suggested were the probable speeds. He also suggests that this was 'one of the great storms' to affect this region of northern Europe.
Notable drought from October to January. Over England & Wales, 40% or less of LTA, and even in Scotland, less than 60% of rainfall for many.

1879 211.8MM

 

214.2mm 1962/63  (Winter): COLDEST WINTER OF THE CENTURY

This was the coldest winter (by the CET series) of the century, and the second coldest (after 1739/40) in the entire series. The wintry weather (frequent, often heavy snowfall/severe frosts) set in just after the shortest day and lasted with only minor interruptions until early March. Snow remained on the ground for a good part of this period. Notable persistence of easterly winds to south of Scandinavian blocking high. NB: HOWEVER ... an analysis (published in 1963) using Glasgow (Renfrew/Abbotsinch) from 1921, and before that Glasgow Observatory suggests that this winter was the SECOND coldest in the composite series from the winter of 1868/69 ... the COLDEST WINTER for the Glasgow area being 1878/79. (Over 450 football matches postponed - 'Pools' panel invented?); The sea froze for some distance offshore in Kent (?north shore/Thames Estuary?) , and ICE FLOES were a frequent observation in the lower Thames and across the Estuary; Lamb (TEC) has this: " At this time (late January / early February) there was ICE about in the southern North Sea and near the Goodwin Sands in the Straits of Dover, with a belt of ICE a mile or more in width along the coasts of Kent. Explosives were used to free ships in an Essex port. Upriver at Hampton Court the river could be crossed on foot". Farms in remote regions of the west were isolated for over 2 months. Amongst long-term problems that the adverse weather generated was a sharp rise in unemployment in the building (& allied) trades - a highly seasonal occupation, and a rise in insurance premiums. Local authorities also faced a huge bill for road repairs after frost-heave, as well as the short-term costs of keeping the roads etc., clear of SNOW.

 1963 (February):

After 120 years of quiet, Mount Agung (Bali, Indonesia / East Indies) began erupting on February 18th (some references have 19th). A series of major explosions produced destructive avalanches of various pyroclastic material on March 17th & May 16th, destroying many villages & killing around 2000 people. The explosive clouds of gas and volcanic dust reached heights of more than 10km above the crater, high enough to reach the stratosphere. The atmospheric effects, including dramatically coloured sunsets & haloes around the sun, encircled the earth within a few weeks; there was a decrease in light measured from distant stars, with the decrease at a maximum between August to November 1963, lasting to some extent until mid-1964. Stratospheric TEMPERATURES rose as much as 6degC, and the average world near-surface TEMPERATURE dropped 0.4degC for 3 years after the eruptions.[VOLC]

206.8mm in 2023

1946 219.7MM

1946 (August & September):

A notably WET combination of months. By the EWP, the total was=263mm, though some places would have had much more than this. In the 20th century, in the top 3 or so such pairings - perhaps the 2nd wettest, only beaten by 1927=293mm; much FLOODING.

 1946 (November):

On the 3rd, the TEMPERATURE reached 20.6degC at Aber in North Wales; the next day (4th), it rose to 21.7degC at Prestatyn (North Wales/Denbigh-Flint). This latter value is the HIGHEST November TEMPERATURE in the UK (as at 2013). Temperatures of 20degC or more in November are a rarity, and these events are one of only a handful of such. (See also, 1906, 1938, 1997 & 2003).
[ The CET anomaly was greater than +1.5C on the modern-day average for a November, and placed it within the 'top-20' of WARMEST such-named months.]

 1946/47 (Winter): HARSH, POST SECOND WORLD-WAR WINTER - SEVERE RATIONING

COLDEST February in the CET record, and coldest February at Edinburgh since 1764. One of the HARSHEST winters experienced in the British Isles, though there was little hint of severe weather until after mid-January, when pressure rose from a High over Greenland, extending across to Scandinavia & leading to bitter easterly airflow for most. Also regarded as the SNOWIEST winter in the century, and for perhaps back to the middle of the previous century. (see 4. below)
The winter continued at its most SAVAGE in March, 1947, hitting particularly hard at a time of fuel and food shortages after the second World War. Significant adverse effects for upland farmers, such that many abandoned their way of life, most notably in Wales & the North of England.
Some notes from the usw ng: "The worst of the weather began in late January and the spell did not finally relinquish its grip until mid March. Some very HEAVY SNOWFALL - a sequence of severe BLIZZARDS led to accumulations estimated at between 50 and 120 cm across the English lowlands, with drifts often in excess of 10 feet, sometimes 15 feet (quite remarkable compared with late 20th / early 21st century experience). The Second World War had been over for only 18 months, fuel was rationed, as well as food and clothing. Power cuts were common, frequent and widespread, and there was a shortage of coal (the main source of heat other than gas), due to transport problems, and the need to divert coal to the power stations. Mean TEMPERATURE below 0degC for 9 weeks. Bulldozers were diverted from bomb clearance to snow clearance. Ice-breakers had to be used in the River Medway (no dates or further details for this) & ICE FLOES were reported in the lower Thames & its Estuary / TEC. There were severe losses to agriculture; 2 million sheep died, and the FROSTS destroyed much of the late potato crop. The aftermath was equally severe, with widespread burst pipes, local flooding as snow melted: winter of extreme misery.
THE SNOWY WINTER OF 1947: This event began late, as up until mid-January, although there had been cold spells, the weather was not particularly extreme. Includes the coldest February (by CET = minus 1.9degC) in that series, and you had to go back to 1895 for a comparable value (minus 1.8). This is now thought to be the snowiest winter of the 20th century (and perhaps the snowiest since 1814), with some snow falling somewhere across the country between 22nd January and 17th March & although some lowland areas in southern England & more generally in the west had little lying snow, for much of the country, there was continuous SNOW cover from the last third of January until roughly mid-March & the greater part of the UK had some form of snow cover continuously from 27th January to the 13th March. Level snow depths exceeded 2ft (circa 60cm) and there was much drifting. Much dislocation (railways particularly badly affected - a vital part of the infrastructure at this time) and great hardship emphasized the reduced circumstances the general population were enduring after the recent War.

[Ross90]

All I've been seeing on the mod thread for the last few days is "Indian summer", "record temps", "late settled spell incoming" only to see we have 3 consecutive days of weather warnings.

[Halfamilefromnowhere]

Cold wet and rather dismal here 11.3C max 5mm rain and gusty winds of around 25 mph.

[Mair Snaw]

Evening Ladies and Gentleman..its all a bit meh really at the moment..

@Kirkcaldy Weather just seen your post in the model thread, the only bit i could manage to work out was GOM meant Golf of Mexico... other than that no idea whats going on... 

Whens the snaw due to arrive??

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

1 hour ago, Mair Snaw said:

Evening Ladies and Gentleman..its all a bit meh really at the moment..

@Kirkcaldy Weather just seen your post in the model thread, the only bit i could manage to work out was GOM meant Golf of Mexico... other than that no idea whats going on... 

Whens the snaw due to arrive??

  

Gut Feel tells me it might be a winter that gets you replacing Mair with TOO MUCH 

[Mair Snaw]

21 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

  

Gut Feel tells me it might be a winter that gets you replacing Mair with TOO MUCH 

I think we both know you can never have Too Much...

[Sceptical]

Still waiting on the first frost of autumn  

[Ross B]

Belter of squall line moving across the central belt now. Gutters were overflowing and I'd imagine some roads will be flooded from that.