Scotland Weather discussion

[Northernlights]

Some misty drizzly showers this afternoon with very clear air at times giving a striking view of one of the Sutors of Cromarty ¹

[Mair Snaw]

@Kirkcaldy Weather where is me snaw?? You promised i would need to change me name to "too much snaw".....

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

17 hours ago, Mair Snaw said:

@Kirkcaldy Weather where is me snaw?? You promised i would need to change me name to "too much snaw".....

I also told you to remain patient  

As discussed here is my Winter outlook

On 23/09/2023 at 22:59, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Kirkcaldy Weathers Official 2023 >>> 2024 Winter Outlook

I'll be conducting this in separate sections which cover the most significant phenomena contributions into winter 2023/2024.

Section 1

ENSO WITH QBO + STRATOSPHERIC WARMING RELATIONSHIPS

Perfect timing as an updated and cleaner laid out format containing excellent info which factors in the above categories has been made by Amy Butler 

• 2023 has seen an increasing El Nino with major similar strength and peak C and time of peak as the 2009 event which rose to +1.7C and peak was around October and November
• The key combos for this coming winter then is Nino plus EQBO

Lets start with the years which contained the same formation as this coming winter Nino and EQBO WHICH FEATURED A SSW

1958/1959

DEC 

 

JANUARY

FEBRUARY

1965/66

This is a fascinating year listed as having dual SSW 

 

DEC 1965 8-Dec-65 16-Dec-65 18-Dec-65 16-Dec-65EE

FEB 1966 24-Feb-66 23-Feb-66 23-Feb-66 22-Feb-66EE

December

January

February

 

1968,69

 

December

jan

Feb

1968 (December):

One of the few 'WHITE CHRISTMASES' of the 20th century; heavy overnight SNOW in the Midlands and Wales had stopped by first light on Christmas morning, leaving a blanket of snow over a foot deep in the Welsh Marches and almost as much in the Cotswolds. SNOW was also reported further south. [ See my Christmas holiday files elsewhere on this site. ]

 1968/69 (Winter):

A notably COLD spell across the Denmark Strait / Iceland region (ICE reached north & east coastal Iceland by late winter - not known in recent/early 21st century years), coincided with the 'Cod War' between Iceland and the UK, when Iceland attempted to protect their fishing grounds from UK trawlers. Several British trawlers capsized due to superstructure ICING - which made the small ships unstable. A trawler support vessel [MV 'Miranda'] was stationed in the area, funded by the UK government, with an on-board meteorologist. [ At the time I was an Assistant in the Central Forecast Office, Bracknell - we had to plot special charts to support the forecasts for the fishing fleet and the Miranda. ]

 1969 (February):

On 7th February, 1969 the highest GUST (up to that time, beaten in 1989) at a low level station in Great Britain was recorded at Kirkwall in the Orkney's, 118 knots.
SEVERE BLIZZARD across the northern Isles, as a polar low slipping southeast across Britain on the 7th gave rise to exceptionally severe, near BLIZZARD conditions across the Midlands and East Anglia, along with parts of southern England.
On the 19th, south Devon was hit by a SEVERE GALE (easterly), causing considerable DAMAGE; at the same time, there was a good deal of DRIFTING SNOW over southern Britain.

1972 -- 1973

 

The Massive South Carolina Blizzard Of February 1973 Will Never Be Forgotten

WWW.ONLYINYOURSTATE.COM

---

The Blizzard of 1973 wreaked havoc on South Carolina's roadways and structures, causing untold millions in damage.

 

Dec

January

february

JAN 1977****9-Jan-77 9-Jan-77 9-Jan-77 EE

Dec 1976

January 1977

February 1977

1979/80

Dec 

January

FEB

FEB 1980 29-Feb-80 29-Feb-80 29-Feb-80 29-Feb-80 29-Feb-80 29-Feb-80EE

 

On 24/09/2023 at 18:57, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

LOOKING INTO THE PATTERNS LINKED TO THE TOP 10 COLDEST MEAN TEMPERATURE VALUES 

composites only available back to 1948 

QBO AND SSW DATA ONLY AVAILABLE BACK TO 1958

ENSO data only dates to 1950

SCOTLAND WINTER RATINGS

• -0.32 1894 - 1895

• -0.06 1962 - 1963 

• 0.36 2009 / 2010 el nino

• 0.40 1978 - 1979

• 0.50 1946 / 1947

• 0.83 1940 - 1941

• 0.88 1950 / 1951

• 0.90 1976 - 1977 el nino

• 0.92 1939- 1940

• 1.05 1935 -  1936

years in the above which are listed as being EQBO

1963

1977-78

joining the above composites and pattern associations to this winters 

 

 

On 24/09/2023 at 22:32, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

WHITE CHRISMAS Stats and synoptic patterns

data I found listing all years 2021 back to 1959 which were classed as white christmases in at least part of the UK. BOLD REPRESENTS AN EL NINO CHRISTMAS

1961, 1962, 1963, 1964, 1965, 1966, 1968, 1970, 1972, 1976, 1978, 1980, 1981, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1988, 1990, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2004, 2009, 2010, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2021

1963 CHRISTMAS DAY  DECEMBER COMPLETE 

1965 dec  1965 christmas day 

1972 xmas day  December 1972 entire 

1976 christmas  DEC 

 2014 december xmas day

DEC 2015 I should also note the number of synchronicity to records set this year and 2015 has been present but definitely nowhere close to the number and close representation with years 2009, 2010 and 2012 to name a few as already shown in above posting. Plus checking QBO files the 2015>16 winter was a descending westerly 

 xmas day 2015 

 

I know there was 100% a white christmas in 2022 as an undercut of cold air turned the rain to snow from Northwest Scotland down to around Northwest England

"the Dickensian scene of widespread snow lying on the ground on Christmas Day is much rarer. There has only been a widespread covering of snow on the ground (where more than 40% of stations in the UK reported snow on the ground at 9 am) four times since 1960—in 1981, 1995, 2009 and 2010.”

Christmas Day 1981 December 1981 full month 

Christmas Day 1995 December 1995 entire monthly

2009 Monthly

 

2009  christmas day

2010 Entire DEC  Christmas Day 2010 

 

 

On 24/09/2023 at 22:37, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

When was the deepest snow on Christmas day?

The deepest lying snow on Christmas day was recorded back in 1981 when Kindrogan, Perthshire recorded 47 cm.

Snow depth (cm)

Country WITH Deepest snow on Christmas Day

 England 43cm at Buxton, Derbyshire and Malham Tarn, N. Yorkshire in 1981 and 2009

 Northern Ireland 17cm at Hillsborough, Down in 2010

 Scotland 47cm at Kindrogan, Perthshire in 1981

 Wales 45cm at Cae Poeth, Gwynedd in 2010

When was the coldest Christmas day?

Gainford in Durham holds the record for the coldest Christmas day recording -18.3 °C in 1878.

Minimum temperature (°C)

Country Coldest Christmas Day

 England -18.3°C at Gainford, Durham in 1878

 Northern Ireland -17.5°C at Katesbridge, Down in 2010

 Scotland -18.2°C at Altnaharra, Sutherland in 2010

 Wales -16.5°C at Llysdinum, Powys in 2010

 

 

On 11/10/2023 at 22:16, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Section 2 Kirkcaldy Weathers Official 2023 >>> 2024 Winter Outlook

Most synchronistic winter years connected with 2023 --- 2024

YEARS I BELIEVE ARE GREAT COMPARISONS FOR THIS YEAR 

BOLD ARE THE GREATEST SIMILAR FEATURES

 NUMBER 1 2009-2010. 2008/2009. 1976-1977, 2012-2013, 2010-2011. 1981-1982, 1962-63, 1967-1968, 1946--47

 

 

2 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Kirkcaldy Weather's Winter 2023--->24 Full summary ️🌨

I expect to see both rainfall and particularly Snowfall records at high risk of being broken given the water vapour a residual effect from Hunga Tonga still at incredibly significant amounts at nigh on all stratospheric height levels, interesting that a previous similar trend of that was there during 2012---13

I sent the following to @Mike Poole in DMs all the way in May

Amazingly and I'm extremely happy seeing the latest SST output supporting this with that Warm Cold Warm like anomaly which I believe was active in 2010

OK let's see the style I'm expectant of evolving through December January and February

Starting with the progress of the El Ninò event we see this is at the stage of peak strength from October into January 

There is just the one region which is likely to see at least some warming from here on in which is the 3.4 zone

OK let's look at the scenarios heading into Winter, taking some of the monthly data 

December 

First we need to look at patterns currently in play and my views on how December develops.

I believe a key area continues being the strong high across the Pacific through Alaska 

In the next few weeks we should see low pressure toward Greenland with high pressure still highly active over the area above 

However once influences from the emerging cycle of MJO from the Indian Ocean to Pacific develop within future pattern evolution I believe a switching will begin 

Can already watch the Ninò begin to show and as January comes in the atypical Ninò 500hpa sets in 

Combined to teleconnective influence of the MJO,PNA AND NAO this will feed in strengthening Blocking whilst the Ninò Jet leads to an elongating Atlantic trough 

I expect January through a significant amount of February really sees the above increase 

 

The setup I see being dominant especially from Jan onward

 

Hope everyone enjoys reading my views, certainly seems I picked a cracking winter for my first EVER go at a winter outlook 🗯

 

[Mair Snaw]

Well @Kirkcaldy Weather im hoping you have naileded this...

[Halfamilefromnowhere]

Nice calm cold clear morning 2C. Good covering on the higher hills. Ben Assynt and Ben Klibreck pictured.

[blitzen]

Very nice day here too.   Chilly feel at 4.1c.

 

[mardatha]

Nice to see the sea blitzen

[Kayemill]

From last night. Wife’s photos. 

[dryfie]

Took a while to happen, but inevitable.......with a current max of around 7c I think it's safe to say this has been the first day this autumn when we've failed to get into double figures, though we've had some close calls.  Looks as if it's the same story nationwide, even on the islands.

[Norrance]

Nice day here but on the chilly side. Just back from a walk down to the river. Currently sun just going down at 4C

[Northernlights]

Cool start at 3c but mostly sunny all day. Setting  sun highlighted a  solitary wintry shower to the east colouring it pink should have had a photo . A very wintry sunset at 2c .Looks like there will be an air frost tonight.

[Snowandrocks]

Glorious autumn day today, crisp with little wind and quite a bit of sunshine. 

Looks like a cold one tonight with the windscreen of the pickup already frozen hard at 1630.

[Ravelin]

Started the day at around 1C and a thickly frosted car, but easy scrape variety thankfully. As above, a sunny day with a max of 5.9C, now just touched 0C so likely another scraping session in the morning. 

[Mair Snaw]

Out on a frosty dog walk this morning and spotted these beautiful 3... completely unfazed by my presence..

[Quinach]

Met Office app really is terrible at temperature predictions.

Supposed to be 1c at 8pm - reality, -3.5c with sparkling grass everywhere and sheet ice where field runoff crosses the road.

Managed to get a beautiful but ever so brief glimpse of the aurora just after 8pm, if only these sparkling clear skies were around earlier this week..

Very useable late autumn days this week with plenty of sunshine, if a bit chilly - long may they continue.

[Mair Snaw]

Radar has freezing rain incoming for my area... i hooe thats wrong.. last thing i need today is everything covered in a layer of ice...

[Sceptical]

A nice dry cold start to the day.

 

[shuggee]

Same here, fourth air frost at -2.0C and lots of thick fog around above 250m. Beech tree orange stunning in the mist.

[Norrance]

-2.1 C min in my back garden which is in a bit of a frost hollow. Now -0.3C and sunny.

[Kayemill]

From this morning.  Wife’s photos again.  Was -2.5 in the car. Not sure what it was at home as weather station appears to be gubbed.

Edited November 10, 2023 by Kayemill

[Dundeeguy]

First time this icon has appeared in a while ….

[Quinach]

Coldest night of the season so far with a overnight low of -5.1c.

Temperature below freezing until around 10am, now 4.8c with a light westerly wind and some sunny periods.

Wintry looking showers early this morning...

[Norrance]

A frosty start here and bits of ice still in puddles now. Temp currently 2C so another cold one. Some showers expected to get through this evening from the North. Over the road in Invergowrie there are several flocks of waxwings. Jus missed a close up of a large flock in a tree full of berries but caught some of them a bit further away in a tree.

[mardatha]

Fishman reports that in 30 years of driving around the borders, this morning was the worst black ice he's ever encountered. He says from Eyemouth to Coldstream was pure murder.

[Sceptical]

A dry bright and cool start. I was planning on switching to winter tyres this weekend but the metoffice 10 day trend has put me off.