Scotland Weather discussion

[Hairy Celt]

44 minutes ago, jon_d1983 said:

BINGO….”Cheshire Gap” has been mentioned in the mad house  

I misread that as Cheshire Cat...  and failed to find a weather-related pun - anyone?

MetO and others have me at 7C at 2pm tomorrow but NW shows 2C. Seems a bit of a difference at 24 hours away!

Edited November 26, 2023 by Hairy Celt

[jon_d1983]

41 minutes ago, Hairy Celt said:

I misread that as Cheshire Cat...  and failed to find a weather-related pun - anyone?

MetO and others have me at 7C at 2pm tomorrow but NW shows 2C. Seems a bit of a difference at 24 hours away!

Meant to be 8°c here tomorow and . Can we not just cold and crisp please. Fed up of wet. 

[Hairy Celt]

5 minutes ago, jon_d1983 said:

Meant to be 8°c here tomorow and . Can we not just cold and crisp please. Fed up of wet. 

NW has blinked 1st and now goes for 7C and showers. The rest of the week and beyond looks colder.

[jon_d1983]

3 minutes ago, Hairy Celt said:

NW has blinked 1st and now goes for 7C and showers. The rest of the week and beyond looks colder.

I’m thinking most of the forecasts have underestimated the cold 

[Hairy Celt]

3 minutes ago, jon_d1983 said:

I’m thinking most of the forecasts have underestimated the cold 

I'm in 2 minds about this.... Be good to see the frost but OTOH I don't want a massive heating bill!!

[tiff]

3 degrees and drizzle here, the weather I hate most... anything but this! Yr.No has snow for me Friday

[Hairy Celt]

1 hour ago, tiff said:

3 degrees and drizzle here, the weather I hate most... anything but this! Yr.No has snow for me Friday

Hmm yr.noyoufkndon't has sleet, no snow. No no no. Oh no you fkn don't you scummy beach-dweller... 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

13 hours ago, Ruzzi said:

Hard to see how there won't be snow showers pushing through the central belt at the end of the week if the outputs continue on the same theme. 

Parameters look relatively decent give or take and probably snow settling at modest elevations, especially during the night. 

Not expecting anything significant but if I get to Saturday night without anything on the ground then I'll be surprised. 

Agree with this Ruzzi, I'd discussed the very first days into December being one to focus on 

On 23/11/2023 at 15:57, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Precip + Snowfall opportunities 

 

A couple of dates to watch I expect a shot for wintry north sea bands to start developing during the 27th and 28th with a gradual switch from easterly into northeasterly 

 

Closely looking into the very start of December with increasing troughing closer to the UK 

It's typical of what I'd expect once the block begins to retrogress and get central across Greenland and then towards Canada this has the potential to pull the trough through central Europe further north and northwest ie also retrogressing 

 

Excellent match with  

A few scenarios at play for November 30th - December 1st just a question on how strong any cyclogenisis occurs, defo some possibility here for a blizzard setup with screaming Northeast flow 

This low will be drawing in upper cold pooling from Scandinavia which should act in helping lower the thickness levels, the centre is likely to be on the same latitude as the upstream cyclone which is bringing a huge blizzard through Ukraine and big sea effect snows into Turkey, 

Icon seems logical with 850s fluctuating from -6 average with -8s always near and maybe -10s coming across the north sea plus the 528 dam overhead 

Listening to Kenya Grace and the lyric "its like deja vu'

 

[Ruzzi]

The theme continues for relatively decent shower activity pushing through the central belt area between Thursday and Saturday, and parameters for snow seem to be slightly more favourable after today's runs. 850's a notch lower it would seem and dew points looking pretty healthy for inland snow. 

The UKV model showing the shower activity pretty well should it materialise that way: 

Which leads to this accumulation chart for 3pm on Friday: 

 

if it transpired that way then you'd expect there still to snow on the ground in those areas by the end of the weekend even if no more falls. 

The totals for the far north and Grampain and Aberdeenshire should be noted aswell. Its obviously one run on one model, but it illustrates the expected general theme pretty well should nothing drastic change over the next couple of days. 

I am starting to wonder if I maybe underestimated the impact this could have because it does increasingly look like Friday 'could' be a potentially snowy day through the central belt.

The usual places look in line to do best i.e East Kilbride, Shotts, Harthill, probably Lanark, Carluke etc aswell. 

Grampian could take a pasting as well. 

The UKV is also not a stranger to under estimating snow depths so it's an increasingly interesting watch. 

The ICON also depicting the shower train pretty well: 

 

That chart had me reminiscing of 2018 when the moisture train stretched from Scotland's red warning area all the way to mainland Europe. ...... and no I'm not saying its going to be like that . 

 

MetO auto forecast gradually starting to pick up on the shower activity as well now for the same period: 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

These calibre of charts are worthy of a pop akin to Punk returning  

 

 

[101_North]

Could do with those 850's trending lower before I start to get interested in next week. Currently the form horse is a sleet-fest on the immediate coast! Had plenty of rain with even -8c 850's before

Edited November 26, 2023 by 101_North

[Sceptical]

A rather subdued vibe in the mod thread today. However, the south of Englands loss might be good for us Northerners.

 

Edited November 27, 2023 by Sceptical

[Ross B]

Loads of ice/black ice here after last night's drizzle and fog. Fingers crossed for a dusting of snow at the end of the week and I'm  looking forward to the Snaw pics coming in from those further north and east. Can't delete this emoticon on my phone -! 

Edited November 27, 2023 by Ross B

[mardatha]

3C and fine drizzle here.

[Northernlights]

A bit milder this morning at 5c with a fresh NNE wind off the Firth blowing in a few showers which are falling as sleet or snow inland from here.  Raking more leaves at the weekend and they are mostly in the garden and not in the fields  due to the frequency of north and east winds    this  autumn .

[Kayemill]

We’re in Ambleside. 
you can see snow at the top if you squint. 

[Hairy Celt]

6C and light rain off a north-easterly breeze. What a way to start the week. Guess what, the stove's on!

[jon_d1983]

7°c, grey and light rain in Aberdoom!!  

[snowidea]

No idea about the temperature, but car windscreen had feathery frozen patterns first thing. It's a bit grey just now here in Falkirk . 

[tiff]

20 hours ago, Hairy Celt said:

Hmm yr.noyoufkndon't has sleet, no snow. No no no. Oh no you fkn don't you scummy beach-dweller... 

You've done it now, they've nicked ma Friday snow.. sun now

[Quinach]

Well, the rest of the weeks weather better be an improvement on today.

A little bit of brightness first thing then downhill quickly - real dreich, minging afternoon of heavy rain; 6c and at least light winds.

Thankfully the Monymusk Christmas Light switch on was a dry affair at the weekend....

 

[Sceptical]

Not too shabby  

 

 

[Ruzzi]

Well the thought was nice but the continuing southward corrections will likely remove the notion of any snow showers piling through the central belt. Maybe the odd shower but with the flow now looking much slacker in Scotland due to the southerly track of the low, coupled with a sharper orientation to the wind flow i.e much more NE than E, it seems a stick on now that we'll have primarily dry and cold conditions for Thursday and Friday, unless any features crop up or there is a change in the modelled output of Thursday's Low. 

 

Although just as I typed that, the latest MetO run depicts that all is not lost, I might backtrack my backtrack by tomorrow  

Edited November 27, 2023 by Ruzzi

[Big Gally]

6 minutes ago, Ruzzi said:

Well the thought was nice but the continuing southward corrections will likely remove the notion of any snow showers piling through the central belt. Maybe the odd shower but with the flow now looking much slacker in Scotland due to the southerly track of the low, coupled with a sharper orientation to the wind flow i.e much more NE than E, it seems a stick on now that we'll have primarily dry and cold conditions for Thursday and Friday, unless any features crop up or there is a change in the modelled output of Thursday's Low. 

I’m still optimistic. straight easterly’s would be better but who knows streamers  crop up out of nowhere.

[Ruzzi]

39 minutes ago, Big Gally said:

I’m still optimistic. straight easterly’s would be better but who knows streamers  crop up out of nowhere.

The direction is important though and the flow strength because without a strong flow, any showers that do form will fizzle out before making it far inland and if the direction of flow isn't enough East to West then there won't be anything blowing through the central belt. The length of the draw is also important as is the upper air temp (850hpa). 

That doesn't rule out the likes of East Lothian getting a better feed of showers ofcourse with how things look at present. 

As things stand, any tracks of showers look like setting up more over Eastern and south-eastern England with our window for showers potentially driving inland looking much shorter, however the latest MetO charts do seem to provide a slither of hope for a small window of chance, but not your classic streamers, more akin to standard showers. 

Further north still looks to do quite well and potentially Eastern borders depending on how things develop but it's definitely no outstanding lake effect snow / streamer synoptics just yet. 

Here's the latest Met O chart for Thursday: 

 

And if you compare that with your more classic streamer scenarios of the past 2010, 2018 and for me personally feb 2021, you can see the areas we're lacking synoptically at the minute for such a set up: 

Edited November 27, 2023 by Ruzzi