SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

[Iceman2606]

Stunning October Day - 18 October 2022 Time-Lapse

 

[chilly milly]

1 hour ago, RebsAbbo said:

Sunny & 17c in central London. Again short sleeves & summer gear on, had sun all the way travelling back up north. Soon as I’ve hit Yorkshire the thermal top & cardi went on . Still saying it’s 12c but it’s dark & it feels cool! Cheers guys

Hope you enjoyed your stay. Come back soon.  

[Freeze]

It's so warm outside still 17c 

[biddie]

3 hours ago, Freeze said:

It's so warm outside still 17c 

Definite warning sign October's 

Edited October 20, 2022 by biddie

[Eagle Eye]

@Blessed WeatherThe MCS didn't really cross the channel intact but there was some development in front of it suggesting the ARGEGE with it's CAPE on the northern edge of the MCS was the best performing model just positioned the MCS too far East.

[Mesoscale]

Nasty little storm just passed to the east of me, I thought it was people putting there bins out at first. The lighting was very bright due to it being misty, loud too. Just a bit of light rain. It was eerie. 

[Dami]

So after being a bit gutted i had no storm over night, the weather gods blessed me this morning.

Totally out of nowhere. Very heavy rain, close lightning, it would abait then sudden come back. In fact it's still thundering a hour on

 

[Blessed Weather]

44 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

@Blessed WeatherThe MCS didn't really cross the channel intact but there was some development in front of it suggesting the ARGEGE with it's CAPE on the northern edge of the MCS was the best performing model just positioned the MCS too far East.

Yes, not too bad a performance from Arpege. Interesting to see the development of a multi-cell line of storms in the west of the Region, as @Dami and @Mesoscale report above. From a fledgling shower at 05.45 (red circle) to an active line of storms by 07.15. For the east of the Region, I'm looking at the still developing area of rain out in the North Sea and heading into the SE corner. Might get a single cell storm or two out of that later.

Radar: 05.45:  07.15:

[Eagle Eye]

11 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

Yes, not too bad a performance from Arpege. Interesting to see the development of a multi-cell line of storms in the west of the Region, as @Dami and @Mesoscale report above. From a fledgling shower at 05.45 (red circle) to an active line of storms by 07.15. For the east of the Region, I'm looking at the still developing area of rain out in the North Sea and heading into the SE corner. Might get a single cell storm or two out of that later.

Radar: 05.45:  07.15:

Yes, looks to be some enhanced MUCAPE/SB CAPE combining with a PV lobe just because of the way the convection is developing in a line over the SE. PV lobes typically move quite slow and so it may enhance development on the Eastern edge of the MCS once it hits the coast but only if the vorticity planes are connected/end up connecting. Which I admit is probably a rather confusing sentence even if you understand Potential Vorticity. Speaking of, some lightning here from the Convection but I didn't see it.

Going back to the development just North of Luton and that's probably what I was talking about earlier with CAPE ahead of the MCS and a local increase in shearing and maybe some Potential Vorticity allowing for rapid development.

[Bogman]

Torrential rain as I drove through the Hatfield tunnel this morning, and amazing lightening.

Arrived in Gerrards Cross, and mizzling.....

[Lauren]

Bit of a rumble just now. You'd be forgiven for thinking it was a couple of hours earlier than it is with how dark it is outside.

[diddy1234]

Is this the latest time in the year for a thunder storm ?

[Tilly]

Weather appreciation post here… 

I’m on day 8 of covid and not really getting much better. I’m surprised how this is affecting me mentally. I feel quite down and I don’t usually get down about much. Anyway, got up this morning and stood in the kitchen gazing out the window at the rain… and then there was the closest lightning strike I have ever seen! It was just across the road, partly obscured by trees but there was the brightest white flash that started as a ball and just elongated and the sound of fizzing and crackling and of course accompanied by the loudest of bangs. If I wasn’t poorly I would’ve absolutely pooped myself but I just stood amazed at what I’d just seen! This immediately lifted me out of the covid cloud and made me feel myself again  I haven’t so much as looked at the weather for the past week so it was a complete (and wonderful) surprise! Thank you weather gods! 

[Dami]

2 hours ago, Tilly said:

Weather appreciation post here… 

I’m on day 8 of covid and not really getting much better. I’m surprised how this is affecting me mentally. I feel quite down and I don’t usually get down about much. Anyway, got up this morning and stood in the kitchen gazing out the window at the rain… and then there was the closest lightning strike I have ever seen! It was just across the road, partly obscured by trees but there was the brightest white flash that started as a ball and just elongated and the sound of fizzing and crackling and of course accompanied by the loudest of bangs. If I wasn’t poorly I would’ve absolutely pooped myself but I just stood amazed at what I’d just seen! This immediately lifted me out of the covid cloud and made me feel myself again  I haven’t so much as looked at the weather for the past week so it was a complete (and wonderful) surprise! Thank you weather gods! 

hope you feel better soon!

 

[Stroudley]

Thunder here on the coast a couple of hours ago and torrential rain, leading to surface water flooding. 

We had 6mm in around 45 mins.

 

 

[Freeze]

1 hour ago, Stroudley said:

Thunder here on the coast a couple of hours ago and torrential rain, leading to surface water flooding. 

We had 6mm in around 45 mins.

 

 

Yes early morning thundery rain has now turned into a warm sunny afternoon, actually quite humid too.

[Tn9]

All I got was soaked this morning but by 4 nearly dry ,diddly really (Bromley that was not home )

Edited October 20, 2022 by TN9

[Freeze]

Summerlike morning here, no lower than 16c and humid. Now 17c and wind picking up from the south.

[chilly milly]

14.8c here. Misty, murky, dreary stuff here.

[Blessed Weather]

For folk who have been reading the discussions between myself and @Eagle Eye about which model looked like performing best in forecasting yesterday's storms and rainfall (on Thurs 20 Oct), here's how it turned out wrt rainfall totals for the day. Not bad performances from Arpege and ECM, but imho I reckon GFS edged it.

Thurs actual:  GFS forecast on 0z Weds:

Btw, ITN Weather reporting that places under the multi-cell line of storms (see my earlier post) received up to 35mm of rain - exceeding the average for the whole month of Oct in the space of a couple of hours.

Source of charts: Netweather Extra and Meteociel.com

[Methuselah]

Earlier this morning, the outsides of all my windows steamed up; I'm guessing there was a very rapid rise in temperature and/or humidity?

[Norfolk Sheep]

Early morning murk has disappeared and the sun is making an appearance, so I can stop clceaning and get on outside, yay!!!

[Tn9]

8 hours ago, Norfolk Sheep said:

Early morning murk has disappeared and the sun is making an appearance, so I can stop clceaning and get on outside, yay!!!

Typical radar for West of Maidstone, dirty great showers either side ,light rain this morning shower ,light rain this afternoon ,shower ,light rain this evening ...amazing..

[Stroudley]

9 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Earlier this morning, the outsides of all my windows steamed up; I'm guessing there was a very rapid rise in temperature and/or humidity?

I thought it was just me seeing this. It has been a notable feature of the last few weeks, as I've observed this on a number of occasions - more than I can remember before. I thought it was the new windows we had installed in the summer!

Nearly 21.00 on 21 October and outside temperature is still 17.6C.  Max today was 19.2C

Edited October 21, 2022 by Stroudley

[Freeze]

It's midnight and 17c still.