SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

[Jason T]

Well its Monday and the run up to the big day. What will the weather be for the weekend...???

[bluebell]

The change in temp was really noticeable this morning when I poked my head out the door. An utterly hideous drive up to North Beds this morning, the A21 outside Hastings was closed due to a ‘flood incident’ so a bad start to my drive north, usual slow heavy traffic at the Dartford Crossing, a journey that usually takes 2.5 hours took nearer 4! . We have booked a family Christmas trip up to Flamborough Head leaving tomorrow coming back 27th, maybe an increased chance of a White Christmas, time will tell.. Happy Christmas to one and all on this thread, thanks to everyone for making it a good place to connect with others on our shared enthusiasm for all things Meteorological, whatever out weather preferences! 

[alexisj9]

29 minutes ago, bluebell said:

The change in temp was really noticeable this morning when I poked my head out the door. An utterly hideous drive up to North Beds this morning, the A21 outside Hastings was closed due to a ‘flood incident’ so a bad start to my drive north, usual slow heavy traffic at the Dartford Crossing, a journey that usually takes 2.5 hours took nearer 4! . We have booked a family Christmas trip up to Flamborough Head leaving tomorrow coming back 27th, maybe an increased chance of a White Christmas, time will tell.. Happy Christmas to one and all on this thread, thanks to everyone for making it a good place to connect with others on our shared enthusiasm for all things Meteorological, whatever out weather preferences! 

Don't know where my husband has been all week, but apparently today it was cold lol. Guess he didn't go outside when it actually was cold.

[bluebell]

1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

Don't know where my husband has been all week, but apparently today it was cold lol. Guess he didn't go outside when it actually was cold.

His thermostat must be up the creak!

[Tn9]

2 hours ago, bluebell said:

The change in temp was really noticeable this morning when I poked my head out the door. An utterly hideous drive up to North Beds this morning, the A21 outside Hastings was closed due to a ‘flood incident’ so a bad start to my drive north, usual slow heavy traffic at the Dartford Crossing, a journey that usually takes 2.5 hours took nearer 4! . We have booked a family Christmas trip up to Flamborough Head leaving tomorrow coming back 27th, maybe an increased chance of a White Christmas, time will tell.. Happy Christmas to one and all on this thread, thanks to everyone for making it a good place to connect with others on our shared enthusiasm for all things Meteorological, whatever out weather preferences! 

Beautifully put Bb ,happy Christmas to you too ..or two or family

But what's strange is Dartford crossing what busy ??  I don't think i can believe  you on that lol ,usually only bits of tumbleweed overtake you on that stretch and it all  depends on angle of attack ,A2 London bound ,never good always go to interchange instead of flyover slip come out after lights and que  etc around roundaboutbout and you still struggle to get  in again at times , A2 coast bound laughing till hit whats already queuing  on M25 northbound which is usually..

exept for  middle of the  night back to Swanley interchange at minimum,opposite in mornings going southbound all the way usually to Godstone,if it wasn't for Christmas and people finishing up you would have proberbly be messaging forum from car still (ps thats in fine weather ) imagine adverse ? Happy New year too

[snowrye]

Das vindig out there tonight

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, snowrye said:

Das vindig out there tonight

Ja zur windig 

Edited December 19, 2022 by alexisj9

[snowrye]

1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

Da zur vindig 

Thank you lol

[alexisj9]

1 minute ago, snowrye said:

Thank you lol

Was agreeing with you, just changed the typos a bit. Was thinking back 20 odd years when I took GCSE German lol 

[snowrye]

1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

Was agreeing with you, just changed the typos a bit. Was thinking back 20 odd years when I took GCSE German lol 

I knew it was something like that lol

[Tn9]

Well the winter solstice eve  has arrived 9 pm tomorrow night 'as if by magic 'it starts getting lighter ,then before you know it June 21st creeps up and you think  life is running away  with its self 

Edited December 20, 2022 by TN9

[Tn9]

On 18/12/2022 at 21:39, Crepuscular Ray said:

I can’t remember where I heard it, and it might be a load of tosh, but have a vague recollection that there are restrictions on what they can share, and when, because some of it is based on information from other national weather services from around the world and is subject to copyright. 

Yea I was quoting someone else's moan ,I added the going on strike bit for a laugh ,but its a bad post and its the  very technical and political answers you need to find  and definitely not against met office for sure  

and tbh ,GFS gives us not a bad idea if you take out its  quirks ,and by now we should all know them ,its come on  leaps and bounds in my opinion 

Edited December 20, 2022 by TN9

[snowrye]

Been in the mad thread, it's not a happy place again this morning

[lassie23]

12 minutes ago, snowrye said:

Been in the mad thread, it's not a happy place again this morning

fgs

[Gowon]

17 minutes ago, snowrye said:

Been in the mad thread, it's not a happy place again this morning

There's a lot of conflicting signals atm with the modeling, so I would more call it confused, not happy.  

[Atmogenic]

2 hours ago, Gowon said:

There's a lot of conflicting signals atm with the modeling, so I would more call it confused, not happy.  

Imagine if the UK was as big as the US, it would be like an intense football match everyday in there on who wants what to happen

[Gowon]

1 hour ago, Atmogenic said:

Imagine if the UK was as big as the US, it would be like an intense football match everyday in there on who wants what to happen

I'd imagine there would be threads for different areas?

[m1chaels]

Does anyone know which model output the BBC weather longer forecast is based on?  Is it GFS?

 

A few days ago it had a cold post xmas solution for one day then went back to average for 3 or 4 days but it is back to cold again today starting boxing day.

 

I guess this means there are potentially two patterns and uncertainty around which will materialise and it is still 144 hours+ away

 

(I know you could get all this by following the MAD thread or the model outputs themselves but just looking at the long range BBC website graphics once a day is a lot easier)

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, m1chaels said:

Does anyone know which model output the BBC weather longer forecast is based on?  Is it GFS?

 

A few days ago it had a cold post xmas solution for one day then went back to average for 3 or 4 days but it is back to cold again today starting boxing day.

 

I guess this means there are potentially two patterns and uncertainty around which will materialise and it is still 144 hours+ away

 

(I know you could get all this by following the MAD thread or the model outputs themselves but just looking at the long range BBC website graphics once a day is a lot easier)

BBC normally use ECM.

[m1chaels]

1 hour ago, alexisj9 said:

BBC normally use ECM.

Thanks, didn't realise the ECM went out beyond 10 days.

 

Anyway for the seasonal weather loving non energy bill payers there is a cold incursion forecast starting on boxing day with snow overnight and into the 27th.  Interesting detail for me is the (surface) winds never really get round past a Westerly which isn't normally where we see cold weather coming from.  Presumably this means that nearer the time a short wave will develop and the cold will be mixed out?

[alexisj9]

7 minutes ago, m1chaels said:

Thanks, didn't realise the ECM went out beyond 10 days.

 

Anyway for the seasonal weather loving non energy bill payers there is a cold incursion forecast starting on boxing day with snow overnight and into the 27th.  Interesting detail for me is the (surface) winds never really get round past a Westerly which isn't normally where we see cold weather coming from.  Presumably this means that nearer the time a short wave will develop and the cold will be mixed out?

Oh probably GFS that far out. 

[Snowangel-MK]

Well the models are a mess and the ensembles look more like colourful spaghetti - I think we will just have to be patient and see what Santa brings us but not holding out much hope for a white Christmas down south, possibly something more interesting to come for us between Boxing Day and New Year’s Eve if not just enjoy the festivities and maybe January will be better is it too early to open the quality street & gin? 

[Summer tyre]

4 minutes ago, Snowangel-MK said:

is it too early to open the quality street & gin? 

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[Daniel*]

I shared my thoughts on cold spell here I rated it quite highly, perhaps even more enjoyable than 2018 here while I did not have as much snow, it was less manic and I had more time to enjoy it, the days of brilliant winter sunshine preceding snow were also brilliant and on the day a thick freezing fog can’t remember last time I experienced that, it really did all seem to fall together. The snow persisted pretty well for one whole week. Which is very noteworthy indeed for my neck of woods.

 

Edited December 20, 2022 by Daniel*

[Tom Montalbano]

6 hours ago, alexisj9 said:

BBC normally use ECM.

Evening all,

Hope I find yourselves and your Families, well.

Yes, I'm pretty sure that's now correct, Alexis.

The Beeb now receive their Forecasts from MeteoGroup, rather than the Met Office.

Below, is a link to BBC's Weather for the Week ahead, with Chris Fawkes:

Weather for the Week Ahead - BBC Weather

After ending it's association with the Mat Office, the BBC signed a new deal with MeteoGroup, a private Weather forecasting organisation with its HQ in Utrecht, Netherlands.

BBC Weather launches a new look - Media Centre

Chances of a White Christmas for our Region, seem to be diminishing now.

But some on the MAD Thread, still seem to be in denial. 

There's an "Elephant in the room" and the "King's new clothes", spring to mind and I think we're in need of a "Christmas Miracle".

To my Amateurish eye, all Models are now seeming to want to flatten the pattern.

And Vicky "the Vixen" Brushs' cover version of her Cousin [Kate Brush], for her attempt at a Christmas No.1 with "Withering Heights", is now beginning to look, very prophetic. Heights over Greenland do appear to be withering indeed Vicky, if recent Model runs, are to be believed.

But Sammy is aware, that our Region would be much happier if -

 Scandy Mandy [the Scandinavian High], would suddenly appear in the Synoptic charts.

No offence -  Greta the Greenland High.

But 'twas ever the case, in the S.E. Region.

We then may have a chance of a visit from - 

The Beast from the East, aided by  - 

the Russian Bear [Siberian Anticyclone]. 

 

After taking a break way out East, our old enemy the "Purple Blob" -  

Aka, Pernicious Victor the Polar Vortex, is showing signs of returning to his normal wintering grounds of Greenland/E.Canada. 

Hope Malcolm doesn't mind but speaking of the "Purple Blob", Sammy and Samantha Snowmen - 

/ 

The couple would like to apologise for the failure to repeat their S.E, Regional Pantomime ["Countdown to Christmas, with Sammy Snowman]

But the loved up couple have their hands full, with their young Family -

 Saul and his twin Sister -  Sarah.

An amazing Family likeness there, don't you agree?

Sammy was thinking of doing a Christmas item entitled one of the following and some plagiarising of some ITV "virtual" reality shows -

1. - T.O.W.I.S.E. L [The Only Way Is South East London].

2. I'm a NW Member, get me out of here.

3. - Christmas Day Weather, with the NW Masked Weather Forecaster.

But as Sammy has been busy with a World Cup Competition, those "ships have sailed".

But as the World Cup has now finished, Sammy is looking to put together an item entitled -

Sammy Snowman's Christmas Hamper.

Lots of fun items, including a Christmas Charades, feature.

Sammy is endeavouring to put that item together, over the next few Days.

Regards,

Tom Q., Sammy and Samantha.  

Edited December 20, 2022 by Tom Quintavalle