SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

[Blessed Weather]

The radar says it all.... some heavy rain..... a squall line.....gusty wind..... and all moving east, looking to arrive here just in time to soak me whilst strolling out for a teatime pint.

14.55 

[MAF]

best get the washing in off the line then

[Snowangel-MK]

27 minutes ago, MAF said:

best get the washing in off the line then

No washing out - Ratty is owning it in the front garden now, dogs are going nuts they don’t mind the birds & squirrels but they haven’t seen a rat before  

[Harry's House]

Squally heavy rain around 1635 with a clap of thunder before and after it.

[Snowangel-MK]

3 hours ago, m1chaels said:

Still 'cold from the West' which I'm afraid I will only believe when I see it - there will be a short wave and the cold will be mixed out.

We will see, time for a pattern change… I’ll take dry and cooler even if it’s just average and a few wintry showers thrown in, enough of this wet & mild mush I say! 

[Iceman2606]

Wet and Windy - 10 January 2023 Time-Lapse

 

[Tom Montalbano]

3 hours ago, Snowangel-MK said:

We will see, time for a pattern change… I’ll take dry and cooler even if it’s just average and a few wintry showers thrown in, enough of this wet & mild mush I say! 

Evening all,

Hope I find yourselves and your Families, well.

Yes S-MK, had enough of this mild and unsettled dross now!!

Fortunately for Yours Truly, a very painful left shoulder probably caused by poor posture whilst typing at my Laptop, has now eased greatly, allowing me to resume my hobby. Having read up on ergonomics and how poor posture can impact on your health, I've taken the advice on-board, and have became ergonomically savvy!! But, I never realised shoulder pain could be so excruciatingly painful. Please be warned!!

Anyway, enough of my shoulder woes and back to the Weather.

It looks as if it remains unsettled for the next few Days with the Jet Stream, starting to dive S.E., resulting in the U.K. arriving on the cold side of the Jet Stream.

Below, are a few Forecast Charts for t144/T168 [Tues/Weds. 17th/18th Jan.], from a U.K. perspective:

    12z 500hPa ECMWF t144 [Tues. 17th Jan].    12z 850hPa ECMWF t144 [Tues. 17th Jan].    12z 2 metre Temp.ECMWF t144 [Tues. 17th Jan].    

                                               

The European model has an area of Low Pressure diving S.E across the U.K. to be centred over N.E. France by 12z, next Tuesday.

Upper Air temperatures [850hPa], are between -5c and -6c, for the majority of the S.E. Region, with surface temps a couple of degrees above freezing. 

     12z 500hPa GFS t144 [Tues. 17th Jan].          12z 850hPa GFS t144 [Tues. 17th Jan].         12z 2 metre Temp GFS t144 [Tues. 17th Jan]. 

                                           

The American model has an area of Low Pressure diving S.E across the U.K. but centred further North, to be sitting just off the Dutch coast, by 12z, next Tuesday. 

Upper Air temperatures [850hPa], are between -5c and -6c, for the majority of the S.E. Region, with surface temps a few degrees higher than its European counterpart.

   12z 500hPa UKMO/EU t168 [Weds. 18th Jan].  12z 850hPa UKMO/EU t168 [Weds. 18th Jan].    12z 2 metre Temp UKMO/EUt168 [Weds. 17th Jan]. 

                                                          

A combination of the Met Office and a European model has an area of Low Pressure transferring E, across the U.K. a Day later than the other Two models but similar to its American counterpart, has it centred further North, over the Netherlands by 12z, next Wednesday. 

Again, Upper Air temperatures [850hPa], are between -5c and -6c for the majority of the S.E. Region, with surface temps similar to the GFS model.

Should these Models be accurate in their projected Forecasts for next Tuesday/Wednesday, I would expect some of our Region to see some falling Snow but this would be more likely over any high ground in our Region, whilst the majority of our Regional members will most likely experience, just cold Rain!!

This regime of a S.E. diving Jet Stream with associated areas of Low Pressure can be clearly seen indicated by MeteoGroups Weather fir the week ahead, courtesy of Stav Danaos. See link below:  

  Weather for the Week Ahead - BBC Weather   

Looking at the Forecast Charts Stav uses in his Forecast, they seen to match the 00z ECMWF. 

But as he suggests, we will need to keep an eye on Low Pressure moving around the base of that troughing, which could engage thar Cold Arctic/Maritime Air, sitting to the North of the S.E. Region. As he states on the boundary of the conflicting air masses, there could well be a significant Snow event.

Stav finishes his Week ahead Forecast with a tease that although the flow is likely to turn back to an Atlantic sourced flow after midweek next Week, cold air will never be too far away!!

I'd like to end this post with a few Snow images, my Sisters emailed myself.

The first 2 are from my younger Sister, and is of my Niece in the early December Snowfall in a Park near their home, on the border of Farnborough Village and Orpington, just about a Mile down the road from "our" own HOTSPUR, in Locksbottom: 

  

The final Two images are from much further afield and from my eldest Sister, courtesy of my Nephew, who lives in California:

They were taken at Mammoth Mountain, in California's Sierra Nevada Mountain range:

 

Mmm, if only!!

Regards,

Tom Q.   

Edited January 11, 2023 by Tom Quintavalle

[Eagle Eye]

Hello SE thread long time no see, just in time for my three favorite quotes;

3)"We have nothing to fear but fear itself." - Franklin D. Roosevelt

2)"You better lose yourself in the music, the moment
You own it, you better never let it go" - Marshall Mathers

1) "I am a fish" - Georgie

It's a long story (Well no it isn't she's just a really good swimmer)... anyway, onto the actual weather part of my post and as @Tom Quintavalle says, it's looking interesting for next week (ish) but I'm not really the synoptic guy I'm the Strat guy so here's the copying over of my post from the model thread...
"

Right now, we had the large EHF prevalent over the Ural-BK region backing up the first warming wave which is going to drive it towards the Pacific-North American are though that thermally dampens the Ural-BK area as the -VE EHF's are forced into the Scandi-Ural area. The anomalously strong planetary wave-breaking for thermal strengthening of the Wave-1 strength over time and increasing the Baroclinic tilt of the vortex through the Tropopause drivers for Strat 'kicking' of the riding outer wave. Therefore, the progression of Wave-1 would suggest movement of the +VE anomalous thermal line to be more West allowing for the strong thermal energy Tropopause transport across the Atlantic signalling for extratropical thermal increasing of Wave-2 formation for the mid-Atlantic progression towards the Scandi-Ural-BK area. Scandi-Ural driving was the rough area for thermal flux initiation of the 2018 SSW when combined with the Alaskan block (I think?) so that would generally be a good idea to get that movement but at this range, the Wave-2 may weaken and/or not transition towards the Scandi-Ural-BK region. The driving of the Alaskan +VE EHF's at the Tropopause are the main reason for the strongly stretched Polar Vortex as the wave pushes into the North American area of the Vortex. This type of wave breaking through the Alaskan area suggests a quasi-horizontal thermal transport stretching the Polar Vortex and reducing the circulation of the polar-night jet via the latent heat release and radiative transfer into the initial area of quasi-circulation (though not a split) and that spreads the centre of the 'spinning top' and stretches out the Polar Vortex though that mainly relies on the timing between the Alaskan and Atlantic warming to increase the 'double trouble' on the PV. The equator-pole Eddy driven circulation with the 'surfing' Waves is typically characterised well in general despite the troubled understanding of The Brewer-Dobson circulation ("The Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) describes the net transport of mass, heat and tracers in the stratosphere and therefore plays a primary role in its chemical composition and radiative transfer properties") because of the typically Wave-1/Wave-2 setup for the Strat; though I suspect it underplays the role of Wave-2 setups (e.g. displaying a strong bias on most models) as that requires a fairly well modelled understanding of how thermal and mass transport occurs under Eddy-driven circulation. 

Essentially what I'm saying here is that the combination of the driving via the Ural Block (and heat flux) and the Alaskan heat flux should result in the driving of the Eurasian warming towards the Pacific and connect up with a developing +VE Alaskan wave to stretch the Vortex a bit. At this point everything becomes complicated and affected by every other thing as without a developing Atlantic-Europe Wave, the Vortex doesn't lose it's polar-night jet signal much, instead it's displaced to over us (e.g. not what we want) but if we can get a warming Wave over the pre-mentioned area; then that should stretch the Polar Vortex and at least slow down the mean to average to below average I would suspect. Beyond that, we need the signal around the Scandi-Urals area to repeat and that would likely cause at least an attempt at a split. Obviously, we need a lot of things to go right for us but that's what luck is for right? Seeing as we haven't had much recently, a good dose of it this Winter (the first spell though came without much snow, then perhaps the second Polar Maritime spell) and maybe we could get a SSW. It's a long process yet the actual end goal would occur in such a short amount of time but it's the setting the Stratosphere up for a SSW that's really the main problem.

"

Hopefully we can see scenes that we saw in December from the Polar Maritime airflow but I'm finding it unlikely, instead we may have to rely on a SSW which I would say is at about a 20-30% chance by mid February, at the moment...

In the meanwhile I've been impressed by the relative quasi-stationaryness of the Theta-E advection into West Turkey that's sparked slow moving clusters/line segments that seemingly led to some strong wind gusts and possible flooding. Though the trough has moved south a lot of areas have had almost constant heavy-torrential rainfall for nearly 2 days now (the lightning doesn't tell the whole story of how the cluters formed especially on day 1 over West Turkey and into parts of Greece) and strong wind gusts mixed in there, some severe wind gusts...

10th

11th

[lassie23]

Bit rough out tonight.

[Lauren]

I know it's winter but would be lovely to have a break from this relentless wind and rain and gave some of those lovely days where it's dry, cold but you can feel the sun on your face.

[m1chaels]

Latest BBC forecast suggests this thread will get a lot busier over the next week, North Home counties are on a promise currently although unlike December no deep cold before any snow arrives.

[Reefseeker]

Wet, grey, windy... what a joy January has been so far.... Fingers crossed next week delivers some snow to the south east. We are off to Cyprus next Tuesday to visit family and I noticed @Eagle Eye posting severe weather around Turkey. The Troodos webcam from a few days ago showed heavy snow but other than that Cyprus too is looking grey and damp. I wonder if we'll spot a few flakes of snow on the 17th as we take off from Heathrow

[Blessed Weather]

And the grey, overcast sky finally breaks up to give some late colour...... unfortunately not for long as the sun quickly went down. But hopefully more sunshine around tomorrow.

[alexisj9]

On 10/01/2023 at 00:01, Floatylight said:

Have you tried spinning the batteries round and round?

Shouting at it sometimes works...  

I do the first one, it often gets the remote going. Don't bother with the second.

Edited January 12, 2023 by alexisj9

[alexisj9]

On 10/01/2023 at 18:31, Blessed Weather said:

Lol. Tell you what, after today's heavy rain you'd need to put water-wings on to risk walking on my lawn atm, it's that soggy!

Yep, takes me longer to walk over the down now, as I walk around through town, to slippery for me, my balance isn't the best as it is.

[alexisj9]

On 11/01/2023 at 14:14, Snowangel-MK said:

Sleet and snow symbols for me next Tuesday, first time this year that I've seen the snowflake used, only time will tell if any will actually fall from the sky of course but it's encouraging ! 

Meantime I have a rat in me garden....what am I gonna do ? 

Me too and it better stay out there.

[Eagle Eye]

3 flashes of lightning today, twice seen lightning already this year wow. Best start to the year Storms wise for me despite the great dreary days, as I've been on the southern portion of these systems where the squall's and showers are. Given the 'horrible' setup, it's ended up quite well for me overall as I get excited by a bit of windy weather and a flicker or two.

Edited January 12, 2023 by Eagle Eye

[Marie]

Big storm here in brighton , thunder lightening torrential rain 

[Harry's House]

Isolated flashes of lightning seen this evening and a shower which produced  some small hail around 10.35 pm.  

[bluebell]

29 minutes ago, Harry's House said:

Isolated flashes of lightning seen this evening and a shower which produced  some small hail around 10.35 pm.  

Just came on here to report flash of lightening and thunder, and note that it’s been happening already. Strange weather for the time of year! 

[Floatylight]

Well windy tonight!

[Jason T]

Good Morning all,  well into Friday the 13th we go. Still quite windy out there this morning, Change in the weather is upon us as we go through the weekend  and fingers crossed some interesting weather to be had. Enjoy your Friday and stay safe.

[Snowangel-MK]

Friday The 13th
Take care ! 
At least it’s drier but Saturday looks pants (maybe a duvet day needed) all change from Sunday….hopefully we all get a ticket to ride the snow train next week

[MAF]

and you can get your boots out   

[Snowangel-MK]

3 hours ago, MAF said:

and you can get your boots out   

I do hope so.......I did just double take your comment before replying to make sure it was boots you said not boobs 

Anyway looks like pretty much anyone anywhere could get some wintry precipitation early next week, after then who knows....I'm trying very hard to ignore talks of SSW and the SPV doing the splits and not get too excited about something way out in FI when we don't even know what's happening beyond Sunday !