Storm Eunice - 18th February

[ShinyDave]

1 minute ago, Geordiesnow said:

I thought the highest gust during that storm was 97mph at/near Boulmer? If there was any 120mph gusts, its bound to be right on top of the pennines rather than any low lying areas. That said as you said, the impacts were quite severe and no doubt more red warnings should be out than there is just like in this case. The south coast looks particularly like it be will be hard hit during the morning then in the afternoon NW England, North Wales alobg with East Anglia seeing the strongest gusts. I would argue these areas should have red warnings also but we shall see how it develops. 

The comment I saw earlier suggesting a "Red Watch" feels like a good one to me - certainly it has a corollary with American practice for hurricanes. It's entirely normal for a Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning to run in parallel for areas that may or may not get hurricane-force winds depending on the final pre-landfall track, and the uncertainty around the sting jet even at this stage makes it reasonable to figure that there's red-warning-worthy possibilties in the SE but not the certainty to commit to such a warning. (And indeed the actual matrix shows exactly that.)

1987 was notorious in part because most people went to bed before public-facing forecasts made it clear how much of a wind threat this is. If we get a sting jet with Eunice, we're going to have ended up with the most populated part of the country - and the same area so badly hit in 1987! - in very much the same position despite all the efforts made to avoid it since. Half of the BBC Ten bulletin was devoted to Eunice but not one sting jet mention and most of the focus firmly on the Bristol Channel/Severn Estuary red area. Even speaking as someone in that area myself, as nervous for a weather event as I can ever remember, that feels like a problem.

[geordiekev]

16 minutes ago, DerbyshireDales said:

Net weather currently showing heavy and moderate snow during the worst wind bits for me too. Between 12 and 5pm. 

Yep, same here & during both rush hours. Just glad I leave in about 4 hours

[alexisj9]

One more thing just checked out side, gusting slightly now, nothing major, but I can here a roar. Jet stream?

Edited February 18, 2022 by alexisj9

[Downburst]

7 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

One more thing just checked out side, gusting slightly now, nothing major, but I can here a roar. Jet stream?

The density of the air molecules at that height and the uniformity of what little there is moving at 200 mph and the height would suggest it isn’t the jet stream you’re hearing if I’m honest. But I could be wrong as certain atmospheric conditions might render it thus. Anyway air is moving up rapidly to meet it, perhaps you are hearing low pressure in some way, but in the inner ear?

 

[Hirudine]

Rain started here just after midnight, temperature's dropped, and there's some mild gusts.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

We could certainly do with blowing a few cobwebs away.

[andy989]

Very windy here now

[TallPaul]

Hi all, just outside of the red warning area (perplexed why not red as this storm falls bang in commute hours here in Plymouth). Swathe of England in highest matrix on amber alert, ready and waiting for storm Eunice...Looking at charts, models, latest sat (provided by your good selves)....and....listening to the now increasing gusts outside, I really am already feeling anxious and nervous as of what's to hit us. I love extreme weather, but already the winds are picking up here, hours before Met warnings kicks in. Stay safe all, I don't often get nervy, but feel this will rock a good part of us - and will be a memory and tale for years to come.

I'm knocking on a bit, 53 years young, so have witnessed the great storms of the last 4 decades......but this, I feel will really a be a newsworthy and memorable event for the history books. 

[Mapantz]

Pressure dropping at 2mb/hr+ 

[Jay jay]

Is it me or is this low (Eunice) taking a more southerly track than was forecast ..or maybe I need to go bk to sleep  ✌

Edited February 18, 2022 by Jay jay

[ShinyDave]

25 minutes ago, TallPaul said:

Hi all, just outside of the red warning area (perplexed why not red as this storm falls bang in commute hours here in Plymouth). Swathe of England in highest matrix on amber alert, ready and waiting for storm Eunice...Looking at charts, models, latest sat (provided by your good selves)....and....listening to the now increasing gusts outside, I really am already feeling anxious and nervous as of what's to hit us. I love extreme weather, but already the winds are picking up here, hours before Met warnings kicks in. Stay safe all, I don't often get nervy, but feel this will rock a good part of us - and will be a memory and tale for years to come.

I'm knocking on a bit, 53 years young, so have witnessed the great storms of the last 4 decades......but this, I feel will really a be a newsworthy and memorable event for the history books. 

Just inside the red area here and can already start to hear the gusts. Now admittedly that might be because of my autistic sensory hypersensitivity, but this feels ominous this early at this end of the red area.

I can't remember the last time I was this anxious ahead of a weather event and it's feeling like my anxiety is proving horribly justified.

[Essex Chelle]

I'm laying here and in the last 20 mins it's gone from earily silent to a low roar which at first I thought was a ship in the estuary but its not its more consistent, my fence panels are rattling away!! 

[Cheshire Freeze]

ICON increases coverage of severe winds a tad more widely from it's last run

Compared to this on its last run

[cookie27]

Highest winds around 130km/80mph at the moment on the northern back edge. Let's see where that makes landfall

[NorthernRab]

Red warning just issued for London and the SE.

[LightningLover]

Red warning for a large portion of SE

[Hirudine]

Aah, you guys beat me to it!

[Cheshire Freeze]

GFS poles apart from some of the Hi-Res modelling and the latest ICON

[stevofunnelcl]

Holy Cow, Red Warning issued in the middle of the night !!

Folks in London are going to wake up to a nasty surprise this morning, and the rest of the SE

[ShinyDave]

The SE red warning dropping now has some real 1987 vibes. Obviously the warning system that we know today wasn't a thing then, but that night also had an escalating response while most were sleeping.

The good news is that people will actually wake up to this news, the bad news is the same. I'm nervous about people whose employers don't respond well to this and force them into danger

[Gazarhya]

Beyond everything, please, everyone stay safe, keep your family and friends safe, and always, always be in awe of Mother Nature, as she is kick ass... whether we like it or not!

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Arpege closer to ICON than GFS. Sting jet shown over the Midlands. Can only see the France view at present as the UK one hasn't updated

[Porto]

Ill admit, I didnt expect the warning to come out just before 4am, figured they might wait until the morning. But better late then never I guess

[Cheshire Freeze]

Arome showing a sting jet possibility crossing the central and east midlands too

Edited February 18, 2022 by CreweCold

[MattStoke]

16 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Arome showing a sting jet possibility crossing the central and east midlands too

Troublesome. It’s pretty clear on 2 of the high resolution models but differences in the exact location. Would assume the Met Office will be watching that closely. Might require a flash upgraded warning at very short notice.