October 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Don]

16 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

All sorts could happen between now then ….21 hrs ago certainly looked defo on the chilly side and then a day later it’s all changed….a late plume

but who’s to say… flip flop ….we’ll see  

Yes, some of those higher CET guesses for the month looked a little troubled yesterday, not so today.  However, like you say could still very much go either way!

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

My guess looks on the low side now.

[Summer Sun]

12.1c to the 13th

1.6c above the 61 to 90 average
0.4c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 11.8C -0.8C below normal. Rainfall unchanged.

Tonight's run trending towards more average values for the day time and flapping either way for night time temperatures.

[damianslaw]

A mild outlook will prevent the CET dropping much further in the week ahead, perhaps a slight drop over the weekend, then a slight rise even, normally Oct delivers a flatline drop through the month. Latter part of tye month looking cool though and there could be a marked drop from next weekend on, but unlikely to be enough to enable a below average month, but more akin to September, close to average still within realms of possibility, late Oct can deliver quite cold CET values easily when under clear skies, sun is weak by then.

[Don]

34 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

A mild outlook will prevent the CET dropping much further in the week ahead, perhaps a slight drop over the weekend, then a slight rise even, normally Oct delivers a flatline drop through the month. Latter part of tye month looking cool though and there could be a marked drop from next weekend on, but unlikely to be enough to enable a below average month, but more akin to September, close to average still within realms of possibility, late Oct can deliver quite cold CET values easily when under clear skies, sun is weak by then.

I'm fairly happy with my 11.5C guess at the moment, but could well change completely in a short space of time!

[Roger J Smith]

EWP update: the total has probably reached 30 mm (last tracker value 26.8 mm after 12th). The sixteen day GFS estimate now running almost to the end of the month suggests a grid average of 40-45 mm, which brings the total up into the low 70s. The uncertainty factor is probably at least 15 mm. So 60 to 90 seems like the developing range for EWP. 

The CET indications as people have discussed above, rather mild in general to 23rd, possibly holding up the CET in the 12's until then, colder to end of month, average looks to be around 7 C. That would take 12 C after 23 days down to 10.7 C. If the average was higher on 23rd the outcome would also be higher, 12.5 would be reduced to 11.1. Big question is how real the colder regime proves to be. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 11.8C -0.7C below normal. Rainfall up to 27.5mm 33.2% of monthly average.

Unlikely to be much of a swing either way this week so will heading steadily towards average.

[Summer Sun]

12.1c to the 14th

1.5c above the 61 to 90 average
0.5c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 11.7C -0.7C below average. Rainfall 27.8mm 33.6% of the monthly average

With the models drifting away from the Indian summer a slight drop possible until Wednesday when it should go up again slightly.

[Summer Sun]

12.1c to the 15th

1.5c above the 61 to 90 average
0.5c above the 81 to 10 average

[Don]

With the outlook now looking very mild, could the current October record holder 2001 be under threat?

Edited October 16, 2022 by Don

[richie3846]

20 minutes ago, Don said:

With the outlook now looking very mild, could the current October record holder 2001 be under threat?

IMO there's virtually no chance because the temperature would have to be 2c above the current CET of 12.1, so  around 14c for the rest of the month for that to happen. That's 16c days/12c nights or 17c days 11c nights for example. It looks mild yes, but for that to continue to the end of the month is unlikely. 

[damianslaw]

Where are we rainfall wise? Looking a wet month for many..

2 hours ago, richie3846 said:

IMO there's virtually no chance because the temperature would have to be 2c above the current CET of 12.1, so  around 14c for the rest of the month for that to happen. That's 16c days/12c nights or 17c days 11c nights for example. It looks mild yes, but for that to continue to the end of the month is unlikely. 

Last week of the month all to play for still, it did look like things would cool down markedly, by next weekend, but now the models are showing a relatively mild period holding out.. but we are seeing quite marked daily variations, so a cold end could still materialise.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 11.7C -0.6C below average. Rainfall up to 29.2mm 35.3% of the monthly average.

[SW Saltire]

18 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Where are we rainfall wise? Looking a wet month for many..

Last week of the month all to play for still, it did look like things would cool down markedly, by next weekend, but now the models are showing a relatively mild period holding out.. but we are seeing quite marked daily variations, so a cold end could still materialise.

Amazing the NW/SE divide rainfall wise, even compared to what The PIT has been posting.

You’ll be similar to myself, i’m over 110mm so far (Official SEPA station) which is 72% of average for the month so pacing for a wet month

[reef]

2 hours ago, SW Saltire said:

Amazing the NW/SE divide rainfall wise, even compared to what The PIT has been posting.

You’ll be similar to myself, i’m over 110mm so far (Official SEPA station) which is 72% of average for the month so pacing for a wet month

A bit further east here than The PIT and we're on just 20.2mm so far this month. 

[richie3846]

2 hours ago, SW Saltire said:

Amazing the NW/SE divide rainfall wise, even compared to what The PIT has been posting.

You’ll be similar to myself, i’m over 110mm so far (Official SEPA station) which is 72% of average for the month so pacing for a wet month

Dry here, 25 percent of the whole month average, what a contrast. Brize Norton 27 percent, Lyneham 23 percent, those are the official met stations, environment agency stations in the area are also recording well below average numbers. 72 percent is a different world, clearly a different October to ours, which has been dry, mild and sunny.

[damianslaw]

32 minutes ago, richie3846 said:

Dry here, 25 percent of the whole month average, what a contrast. Brize Norton 27 percent, Lyneham 23 percent, those are the official met stations, environment agency stations in the area are also recording well below average numbers. 72 percent is a different world, clearly a different October to ours, which has been dry, mild and sunny.

Turning into a classic NW-SE divide month, as much of the year has been, airstream a predominantly westerly/south westerly so not surprise to see a wet NW and drier SE.

[Frigid]

Looks like a mild October is on the cards, certainly didn't look that way a week ago. Was expecting a cooler month after that 2nd half to September. Unless we see a cooldown at the end of the month I don't see the CET being any lower than 12..

[damianslaw]

7 minutes ago, Frigid said:

Looks like a mild October is on the cards, certainly didn't look that way a week ago. Was expecting a cooler month after that 2nd half to September. Unless we see a cooldown at the end of the month I don't see the CET being any lower than 12..

Dice haven't quite fallen, but we were not far off a colder second half, had things nudged a little further east. Dice never seem to fall on cold nowadays. However second half of Sept was cold, think a mean of 12 degrees.. 

[Don]

8 minutes ago, Frigid said:

Looks like a mild October is on the cards, certainly didn't look that way a week ago. Was expecting a cooler month after that 2nd half to September. Unless we see a cooldown at the end of the month I don't see the CET being any lower than 12..

Indeed, I thought my CET guess of 11.5C was looking too high last week, now it's looking too low!

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

It’s over for those predicting below 12c.

The rainfall could still end up higher though with the unsettled outlook.

[Summer Sun]

12.1c to the 17th

1.6c above the 61 to 90 average
0.7c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 11.7C -0.5C below average. Rainfall still at 29.2mm 35.3% of the monthly average.

Today surprised me by peaking at just over 15C so no change tomorrow either unless it turns warm overnight.

Now with plenty of warm nights on the cards and no sign of any cold weather certainly looks like we will record a mild month.