Chilly easterly this weekend, but hints it may turn even colder from the arctic next week

[Nick F]

A chilly easterly flow for all over the weekend, with temperatures a little below average, however, next week there are signs that it could turn even colder from the arctic, with an increasing risk of snow later in the week

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[AmatuerMet1963]

My first post for winter, and I'm rather dissapointed Netweather is sitting on the wall, clearly seeing the start of a 1963 winter, which I lived through for 3 months on the Sussex coast. Netweather has lost the natural way of forecasting we saw in the 60,s to 80,s. Computers are confused, because they were never designed to forecast natural events. I never use them. Just weather station in my garden. In the last 5 weeks, a massive amount of snow cover has been logged by NOAA. LATEST IS 182,000 KILOMETERS ACROSS ALASKA NORTHERN ICELAND, and for the first time for many years, The baltic and Russian land mass has changed from being affected by warming, to a norm of already - 40 at the end of November. Noting natural pointers, there is no doubt in my mind that uk will be covered in snow by Christmas with deep freeze of - 10 well into 2023. In my  long association with weather, 50 years now, forcasters  won't say or give an accurate forecast, for fear of being critised. The possibility of this Arctic air around the huge Scandinavian high is 100%. Major forecasters can't keep sitting on the fence being unfair to the general public wanting concrete weather outcomes. Relying and then dilly dallying over silly models which makes forecasters keep changing their mind. This setup on viewing the historical charts from 1962 to 1963 is roughly the same looking charts as now. Once the East frigid air gets in place, any such low pressures approaching the UK, will cause blizzards and freezing seas like it did in my days.  I would rather Netweather make a proper conclusion that we are in for a 1963 winter. Mild conditions are not going to be seen for a long time, and I wish met office and BBC would stop being afraid to make a bold statement lik they did in the sixties. 

[Eagle Eye]

4 minutes ago, AmatuerMet1963 said:

 

I would argue that there is still too much difference and the possibility of a west based  -VE NAO cropping up every few model runs and that this forecast is pretty much spot on for what most model runs are showing at the moment.

[AmatuerMet1963]

I don't believe in models, I believe mostly my premium Windy as day to day actual weather, tracking the changes I can see coming. NOAA and the American Severe weather service I tend to believe in more. As I was bought up in my youth. That what America gets, eventually arrives in the UK. Standard science lessons at my school upholded that scenario. As as The old beasts from the East are concerned, they have become almost extinct for years now due deforestation leading to lakes of methane and loss of perma frost. A North East direction freeze seems most likely while the blocking high remains fairly stationary. The wildlife around me is changing habits this winter, that's enough evidence to point to severe conditions setting in. Being 71 now I still use analogue instruments and old wives tales lately has had a much better chance of being correct than any inert machine like computers

[Eagle Eye]

1 minute ago, AmatuerMet1963 said:

 

Premium windy?

Is that windy.com for day to day weather or just guessing based off the wind?

NOAA are very good yes but they can be off by a little bit and for our island a little bit is often a big change,

[AmatuerMet1963]

Windy c@m yes. But again, it's not very accurate, because it's using these ridiculous GFS and another One ecm or something. They are totally different in what's shown. Making it impossible to know which is righ. Which is why I don't any data from computer rather from historical analogue charts to compare my screen shots. Even Netweather, is playing this almost woke word. "a Hint" I mean you can't really use that in proffecional forecasting. It's either YES it's going to be very cold soon. Or it's going to average cold. "A HINT" IS NEITHER HERE OR There. It makes me laugh really. All these expensive computers, supposed to be spot on, when all they can say is "Hint" I wouldn't expect Bill Giles to describe an arctic N easterly as a hint. It's either yes or no. When forcasters told us in Kent it was going to snow heavily. That's what we got, just two forecasts a day if you were lucky enough to own a TV then. Or the shipping forecast my father and me listened to, as we used to fish often from Seaford or Eastbourne pier. The Noaa and Severe weather Europe is about the best right now, and all see the Siberian and N E Scandinavia moving ever closer. It's not a question of IF, IT'S A QUESTION OF WHEN. I would advise people to get themselves a generator. In my time we had coal fires with a back boiler heated all the main room and the water for everything. Gas for mums cooking. Electricity wasn't used. Only for lighting. And our large landing with 4 beds were heated with two large paraffin heaters. Electricity for heating wasn't known in 1963. Now was gas, as it was a different gas anyway. And most houses were not equipped with any infrastructures  to exhaust carbon monoxide fumes.