May 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Roger J Smith]

EWP is in the books now at 43.5 mm. This moves a few forecasts up one or two ranks and 0.18 or 0.36 extra points as they tie (from forecasts lower than 43.5) with previous high-ranked forecasts. Nobody loses points. These changes will be in the table above soon, and to the combined ranks portion of my previous CET-EWP table. Very small changes are also made to average error since I used 43.9 to generate those. 

[Roger J Smith]

It is now "half time" in the contest year ... and here are the combined contest ranks for all active participants. 

CET ranks are based on latest scoring tables. I make one adjustment to include players not in the first table which requires at least 4/6 contests entered. A second table lists the rest of the field. If the points totals for a player in table (b) for CET fall between ranks in the first table (a), then I show that player's CET rank as a decimal value between the ranks of the first table. This only has any significance for this combined table, basically, table (b) players have no way back into table (a) of CET scoring having missed three or more forecasts. Usually the best of these occasional participants by end of the year will be midway down the rankings anyway. As it turns out, only three participants with three forecasts (in both contests) are awarded these intermediate CET ranks. 

The few CET forecasters not active in EWP are shown in a parallel column of ranks in their CET-only ranking, as close as possible to the ranks in the main column which is based on the average of CET and EWP ranks (as defined above for any players with 1-3 forecasts entered). 

The combined ranks would not include players with only one or two contests entered unless that included May and they have entered June also. (turns out this does not apply so no players shown with only one or two contests entered.

Congrats to leo97t on a very good first  half. DR(S)NO, Reef, Feb78, Feb91Blizzard,et al also doing well in both contests.

 

Combined ranks for CET and EWP after six months (Dec - May)

_ Mo = months entered

 

Players with CET and EWP forecasts ........................................... Players with only CET forecasts

RANK _CET _ EWP __ Forecaster _______ Mo ____ Avg of ranks ____ CET rank only __ Forecaster ____ Mo 

_01 ___ 01 _ 01 ___ Leo 97t ______________6 _______ 1.0 ______________

_t02___ 02 _ 06 ___ DR(S)NO ____________ 6 _______ 4.0 ______________

_t02___ 04 _ 04 ___ Reef _________________6 _______ 4.0 ______________

_04 ___ 11 _ 05 ___ February1978 _______6 _______ 8.0 ______________ 09 _____ Summer Sun ____________ 6

_05 ___ 14 _ 11 ___ Feb1991Blizzard ____ 6 _______12.5 ______________10 _____ Typhoon John ___________ 6

_06 ___ 26 _ 03 ___ snowray _____________6 _______14.5 ______________ 12 _____ Mark Bayley _____________ 6

_07 ___ 23 _ 12 __ prolongedSnowLover 6 ______ 17.5 ______________ 13 _____ damianslaw ______________6

_t08___07 _ 32 ___ Don _________________ 6 _______19.5______________

_t08___09 _ 30 ___ Weather Observer __ 6 _______19.5______________

_t10___ 15 _ 25 ___ Norrance ___________ 6 ______ 20.0 ______________

_t10___ 19 _ 21 ___ dancerwithwings ___ 6 ______ 20.0 ______________

_t12___25 _ 17 ___ seaside60 ___________ 6 ______ 21.0 ______________

_t12___28 _ 14 ___ Mapantz ____________ 6 _______21.0 ______________ 

_t12___40 _ 02 ___ bobd29 _____________ 6 _______21.0 ______________

_t15___ 03 _ 40 ___ The PIT _____________ 6 ______ 21.5 _____________

_t15 ___ 08 _ 35 ___ davehsug ___________ 6 ______ 21.5 ______________

_17 ___ 18 _ 26 ___ J 10 _________________ 6 ______ 22.0 _______________

_18 ___ 10 _ 38 ___ Mulzy _______________ 6 _______24.0 ______________

_t19___ 06 _ 43 ___ rwtwm ______________ 6 ______ 24.5 ______________

_t19___ 22 _ 27 ___ Wold Topper ________6 ______ 24.5 ______________

_21 ___ 34 _ 16 ___ Summer Shower ____5 ______ 25.0 ______________

_22 ___ 45 _ 07 ___ Emmett Garland ____ 6 ______ 26.0 ______________

_t23___ 29 _ 24 ___ summer8906 _______ 5 ______ 26.5 ______________

_t23___ 31 _ 22 ___ virtualsphere _______ 6 ______ 26.5 ______________

_25 ___ 35 _ 19 ___ DiagonalRedLine ____6 ______ 27.0 _______________ 27 ___ Man with Beard ___________ 5

_t26___ 39 _ 18 ___ Midlands Ice Age ____6 ______ 28.5 _______________

_t26___ 49 _ 08 ___ jonboy ______________ 6 _______28.5 _______________ 

_28 ___ 35 _ 23 ___ freeze _______________ 5 ______ 29.0 _______________

_29 ___ 17 _ 44 ___ Mr Maunder _________6 ______ 30.5 _______________

_30 ___ 16 _ 51 ___ Thundery Wintry Sh _4 ______ 33.5 _______________

_31 ___ 20 _ 48 ___ Moorlander __________6 ______ 34.0 ______________

_32 ___ 54 _ 15 ___ Stationary Front _____ 6 ______ 34.5 ______________

_33 ___ 57 _ 13 ___ JeffC __________________6 ______ 35.0 _______________ 41 ___ Quicksilver1989 ___________ 6

_t34___ 07 _ 64 ___ Metwatch ____________ 5 ______ 35.5 _______________

_t34___ 24 _ 47 ___ SteveB _______________ 6 ______ 35.5 _______________

_t34___ 38 _ 33 ___ noname_weather ____ 6 ______ 35.5 _______________

_37 ___ 44 _ 28 ___ Methuselah __________ 6 ______ 36.0 _______________

_38 ___18.8_55 ___ catbrainz _____________ 3 ______ 36.9 _______________

_t39___ 37 _ 39 ___ Summer Blizzard _____ 6 ______ 38.0 _______________

_t39___ 46 _ 30 ___ Summer18 ___________ 6 ______ 38.0 _______________

_41 ___ 21 _ 56 ___ Earthshine ___________ 6,4 _____38.5 ________ (only player with different number of entries CET 6, EWP 4)

_42 ___ 32 _ 50 ___ Frigid _________________ 6 ______ 41.0 ________________

_43 ___ 52 _ 31 ___ Roger J Smith _________ 6 ______ 41.5 ________________

_t44 ___50 _ 34 ___ Weather26 ___________ 6 ______ 42.0 ________________

_t44 ___64 _ 20 ___ Polar Gael ____________ 6 ______ 42.0 ________________

_46 ___ 43 _ 42 ___ SLEETY ________________6 ______ 42.5 ________________

_47 ___ 42 _ 45 ___ stewfox _______________ 4 ______ 43.5 ________________

_48 ___ 56 _ 33 ___ cymro _________________4 ______ 44.5 ________________

_49 ___31.4_ 59 ___ sunny_vale ___________ 3 ______ 45.2 _______________

_49 ___ 62 _ 29 ___ daniel* ________________6 ______ 45.5 ________________

_50 ___ 55 _ 37 ___ I Rem Atl 252 _________ 6 ______ 46.0 ________________

_51 ___ 58 _ 36 ___ Godber1 ______________6 ______ 47.0 ________________ 51 ___ Walsall Wood Snow

_52 ___ 53 _ 46 ___ shillitocettwo _________ 6 ______ 49.5 ________________

_t53___ 48 _ 53 ___ Neil N _________________5 ______ 50.5 ________________ 

_t53___ 60 _ 41 ___ syed2878 _____________ 6 ______ 50.5 ________________

_55 ___48.6_ 54 ___ Let It Snow! __________ 3 ______ 51.3 ________________

_56 ___ 47 _ 57 ___ chilly milly _____________6 ______ 52.0 ________________

_57 ___ 59 _ 49 ___BLAST FROM the PAST__4 ______54.0 _________________

_58 ___ 61 _ 52 ___ Kirkcaldy Weather _____4 ______ 56.5 _________________63 ___ Kentish Man ______________ 6

[Roger J Smith]

Analysis of scoring for recent normals and our consensus

 

_________________________________ Forecasts _______________ Errors ___________ Rank _______ 

"Robot" Forecaster _________ CET ___ EWP ___________ CET __ EWP ____ CET __ EWP 

1981-2010 average DEC ___ 4.5 ____ 97.4 ____________ +1.1 __-4.6 _____ 55 ___ 2.3

1981-2010 average JAN ___ 4.4 _____ 93.0 ____________ -0.8 __ -4.8 _____ 40 ___ 18.5

1981-2010 average FEB ___ 4.4 _____ 66.5 ___________ -2.1 __ +52.5 ____ 40 ___ 37.0

1981-2010 average MAR ___6.6 _____ 71.5 ___________ -0.4 __ -65.3 _____13 ___17.2

1981-2010 average APR ___ 8.5 _____ 64.8 ___________ -0.2 __ -12.1 _____11 ___ 23.2

1981-2010 average MAY __11.7 _____ 63.6 ___________ -0.8 __+20.1 _____50 ___ 24.6

----------------

1991-2020 average DEC ___ 4.8 ____103.6 ____________ +1.4 __+1.6 _____ 63 ___ 0.4

1991-2020 average JAN ___ 4.7 _____ 94.2 _____________ -0.5 __ -3.6 _____ 28 ___ 17.8

1991-2020 average FEB ___ 5.0 _____ 72.4 _____________ -1.5 __ 58.4 ____ 39 ___ 40.3

1991-2020 average MAR ___6.7 _____ 65.4 _____________ -0.3 __-71.4 ____11 ___ 30.6

1991-2020 average APR ___ 9.0 _____ 63.2 _____________ +0.3 __-13.7 ____16 ___ 25.1

1991-2020 average MAY ___11.9 ____ 62.7 ______________-0.6 __ 19.2 ____42 ___ 21.1

 

---------------

1992-2021 average DEC ___ 4.9 ____105.5 _____________ +1.5 __+3.5 _____ 65 ___ 0.9

1993-2022 average JAN ___ 4.7 _____ 95.4 _____________ -0.5 __ -2.4 _____ 28 ___ 13.5

1993-2022 average FEB ___ 5.1 _____ 74.9 _____________-1.4 __ +60.5 ____ 36 ___ 41.4

1993-2022 average MAR ___ 6.7 _____63.6 _____________-0.3 __ -73.2 ____ 11 ___ 32.7

1993-2022 average APR ____8.9 _____59.8 _____________ +0.2 __-17.1 ____ 11 ___ 32.2

1993-2022 average MAY ___11.9 ____ 66.6 _____________ -0.6 ___ 23.1 ____ 42 ___ 29.8

-----------------

consensus DEC ____________ 3.5 ____ 63.0 ______________ +0.1 __-39.0 _____ 04 __ 39.0

consensus JAN _____________5.1 ____ 99.5 _______________-0.1 __ +1.7 _____ 1.5 __ 5.9

consensus FEB ____________ 5.4 ____ 65.0 _______________-1.1 __ +51.0 ____ 29 ___ 31.0

consensus MAR ___________ 5.9 ____ 67.0 _______________-1.1 __ -69.8 ____ 27 ___ 25.0

consensus APR ____________ 9.0 ____ 65.0 _______________+0.3 __-11.9 ____ 16 ___ 20

consensus MAY ____________12.3 ___ 65.0 _______________-0.2 __ 21.5 _____ 23 ___ 25

 

1981-2010 mean of 6 mo __ ___ ___ _____ ________________0.90 __26.58 ___ 35 ___20.5

1991-2020 mean of 6 mo __ ___ ___ _____ ________________0.77 __27.98 ___ 33 ___22.8

1993-2022 mean of 6 mo __ ___ ___ _____ ________________0.75 __29.67 ___ 32 ___26.7

consensus mean of 6 mo __ ___ ___ _____ ________________ 0.48 _ 32.65 ___ 17 __ 24.3

(note mean of errors is mean of absolute errors, not actual errors)

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ANALYSIS: Our consensus continues to do considerably better than the recent normals, which also do better than about half of all forecasters. The average error of consensus is only 0.48 C, normals are running 0.8 to 0.9. The only month where normals did better than our consensus in CET was March where the consensus went too cold (and the outcome was slightly above the normal values).

Some other months show little variation between normals and consensus. 

The best strategy at this point seems to be to go 0.2 above recent normals in CET but there is little pattern to be found for EWP which has tended to swing from very dry to very wet. 

 

Edited June 8, 2023 by Roger J Smith