May 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 13.6C +1.8C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

Well the dry spell interrupted by a few spots rain lunch time. Looking like a final resting spot of 13.4C to 13.5C.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 13.5C +1.6C above average. Rainfall unchanged at 26.1mm 43.8% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

12.5c to the 30th

1.4c above the 61 to 90 average
0.9c above the 81 to 10 average

[Don]

6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

12.5c to the 30th

1.4c above the 61 to 90 average
0.9c above the 81 to 10 average

Come on 12.5C!!

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

2 minutes ago, Don said:

Come on 12.5C!!

What temperature did you go for ?

I got 12.2c!

[Don]

Just now, prolongedSnowLover said:

What temperature did you go for ?

I got 12.2c!

12.5C!

[Frigid]

Looks like my 12.3 will be too low, oh well. @Donit's looking good for you! 

[summer blizzard]

Quite happy with how the month went empirically. Not too far in CET and precipitation. 

I'll admit though that i expected a stronger Atlantic and the high to our east rather than a switch to a UK/Atlantic High so that did not work out. 

[The PIT]

Well a cold day to day which will bring our average down to 13.4C.

[Roger J Smith]

 

Order of forecasts for CET and EWP

Preliminary based on table of entries; CET official scoring comes later, EWP scoring is now adjusted as of 5 June.

Late penalties jog the ranks by one per late day, but several late penalties occur consecutively around ranks 33-38, so this system breaks down a bit, in any case it is arbitrary and only for the purpose of determining best combined totals. The CET scoring system has late penalties applied within a more complex scoring system and this is approximately what happens to monthly ranks. In the EWP scoring, late penalties are scored 0.3 lower per day and that is equivalent to losing one rank since scoring levels for 56 entrants were 0.18 apart.

Best combined total ranks are shown where 54 or less and ranked to 21st place.

 

Final results 12.5C, 43.5 mm.

Rank __ CET _ EWP _ Forecaster (order of entry) ___________ EWP rank __ Best combined

 

_01 __ 12.5 _ 65.0 _ Methuselah (13 ) __________________________25 ______ 26 (7th best combined)

_02 __ 12.5 _ 48.0 _ Weather Observer (32 ) ___________________ 7 _______ 9 ( best combined )

_03 __ 12.5 _ 48.0 _ catbrainz (41 ) _____________________________ 8 ______ 11 (2nd best combined)

_04 __ 12.5 _100.0_ Don (43 ) _________________________________ 55 

_05 __ 12.5 _ 65.0 _ Metwatch (51 ) ___________________________ 27 ______ 32 (10th best combined)

_06 __ 12,4 _ 46.2 _ Thomas Green (11 ) _______________________ 6 ______ 12 (3rd best combined)

_07 __ 12.6 _ 54.0 _ sunny_vale (20 ) ___________________________14 ______ 21 (5th best combined)

_08 __ 12.4 _ 65.0 _ DR(S)NO (21 ) ______________________________26 ______ 34 (t11th best combined)

_09 __ 12.4 _ 53.0 _ Emmett Garland (27 ) _____________________ 13 ______ 22 (6th best combined)

_10 __ 12.4 _ 60.0 _ Leo97t (30 ) _______________________________ 19 ______ 29 (9th best combined)

_11 __ 12.6 _ 84.0 _ Steve B (39 ) _______________________________46 ______ 57

_12 __ 12.6 _ 85.0 _ Mr Maunder (48 ) _________________________ 50 

_13 __ 12.6 _ 77.0 _ February1978 (59 ) ________________________41 ______ 54 (21st best combined)

_14 __ 12.4 _ 74.0 _ Mulzy (47 ) ________________________________ 38 _____ 52 (t18th best combined)

_15 __ 12,3 _ 45.0 _ dancerwithwings ( 7 ) _____________________ t1 ______ 16 (4th best combined) 

_16 __ 12.3 _ --- --- _ Typhoon John (23 ) _______________________---

_17 __ 12.3 _120.0_ Frigid (24 ) ________________________________ 56

_18 __ 12.3 _ 70.0 _ summer8906 (29 ) ________________________ 33 ______ 51 (17th best combined)

_19 __ 12.3 _ --- --- _ damianslaw (31 ) _________________________ ---

_20 __ 12,7 _ 83.0 _ Stationary Front (37 ) _____________________ 45 

_21 __ 12.7 _ --- --- _ Walsall Wood Snow (45 ) _________________---

_22 __ 12.3 _ 78.0 _ noname_weather ( L1-4 ) _________________ 44

_(23) _12.25 _ 65.0_ consensus _______________________________(25)

_23 __ 12,2 _ 65.3 _ Bobd29 ( 1 ) _______________________________29 ______ 52 (t18th best combined)

_24 __ 12,2 _ 46.0 _ Summer Shower ( 4 ) ______________________4 ______ 28 (8th best combined)

_25 __ 12.2 _ 50.0 _ The PIT ( 14 ) ______________________________11 ______ 36 (13th best combined)

_26 __ 12.2 _ --- --- _ Mark Bayley (28 ) _________________________ ---

_27 __ 12.8 _ 71.0 _ rwtwm (33 ) ______________________________ 35 

_28 __ 12.2 _ 67.0 _ prolongedSnowLover (53 ) _______________ 30

_30 __ 12.2 _ 49.0 _ jonboy ( L1-2 ) ____________________________ 10 ______ 40 (14th best combined)

_29 __ 12.1 _ 41.0 _ summer blizzard (16 ) _____________________ 5 ______ 34 (t11th best combined)

_31 __ 12.9 _ 70.0 _ seaside60 (45 ) ____________________________34 

_32 __ 12.1 _ 61.6 _ Reef (40 ) __________________________________20 ______ 52 (t17th best combined)

_34 __ 12.9 _ 63.0 _ SLEETY ( L1-1 ) ____________________________ 24 

_35 __ 12.1 _ 58.0 _ Wold Topper ( L1-3 ) ______________________ 18 ______ 52 (t17th best combined)

_38 __ 12.1 _ --- --- _Quicksilver1989 ( L2-1 ) ___________________ ---

_33 __ 12.0 _ 10.0 _ DiagonalRedLine ( 3 ) _____________________ 42

_36 __ 12.0 _ 25.0 _ snowsummer ( 6 ) _________________________21

_37 __ 13.0 _ 35.0 _ B87 (12 ) __________________________________ 12 ______ 49 (15th best combined)

_39 __ 13.0 _ 59.0 _ Feb1991Blizzard (50 ) _____________________17 

_40 __ 12.0 _ 65.0 _ J 10 (57 ) ___________________________________28

_41 __ 13,0 _ 64.0 _ shillitocettwo (58 ) ________________________ 23 

_42 __ 11.9 _ 59.0 _ snowray (15 ) ______________________________16

_43 __ 11.9 _ 72.0 _ summer18 ( 22 ) __________________________ 36

_44 __ 11.9 _ 85.0 _ Midlands Ice Age (44 ) ____________________ 49

_(42) _11.9 _ 62.7 _ average 1991-2020 ( _66.6 _ average 1993-2022) 

_45 __ 11.8 _ 75.4 _ Kirkcaldy Weather (18 ) ___________________ 39

_46 __ 11.8 _ 85.0 _ Jeff C (19 ) _________________________________ 47

_47 __ 11.8 _ 70.0 _ moorlander (25 ) __________________________ 32

_48 __ 11.8 _ 85.0 _ Norrance (38 ) _____________________________48 

_49 __ 11.8 _ 42.0 _ Mapantz (42 ) ______________________________t1 ______ 50 (16th best combined)

_50 __ 11.7 _ --- --- _ Earthshine ( 2 ) ____________________________ ---

_51 __ 13.3 _ --- --- _ Summer Sun (36 ) _________________________ ---

_52 __ 11.7 _ 92.0 _ Godber1 (54 ) ______________________________53

_(50) _11.7 _ 63.6 _ average 1981-2010 _______________________(23.6)

_53 __ 13.4 _ 45.0 _ Coventry Weather ( 9 ) ____________________ 3 

_54 __ 11.5 _ 90.0 _ I Remember Atlantic252 (49 )  ____________ 52

_55 __ 11.4 _ 63.0 _ daniel* (52 ) ______________________________ 22

_56 __ 13.7 _ 49.1 _ Polar Gael (10 ) ____________________________ 9 

_57 __ 11.3 _ --- --- _ Kentish Man (56 ) ________________________ ---

_58 __ 11.2 _ 73.0 _ Weather26 ( 8 ) ___________________________ 37

_59 __ 11.2 _ 87.0 _ davehsug (55 ) ____________________________ 51

_(58) _11,2 _ 64.2 _ average all data (CET 1659-2022, EWP 1766-2022) __(24.2)

_60 __ 11.1 _ 55.0 _ Neil N (26 ) ________________________________15

_61 __ 11.0 _ 69.0 _ chilly milly ( 5 ) ____________________________ 31

_62 __ 14.0 _ 75.9 _ Roger J Smith ( 35 ) ________________________40

_63 __ 10.5 _ 95.0 _ syed2878 (34 ) _____________________________54

_64 __ 10.4 _ 81.0 _ virtualsphere (17 ) _________________________43

 

============================ [*] ========================== 

 

Edited June 5, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[damianslaw]

A cool day might bring CET down to 12.4 or more likely held at 12.5. My 12.3 a very good guess.

Expect large regional variance temp, sunshine and rainfall wise. Relative to average the NW much milder, sunnier and drier, SE, nearer average temps, below average sun and probably a little above rainfall. A very good month further north and west travel, worser further south and east, East Anglia particularly hard done by. West Scotland, Cumbria, parts of West Wales and SW england place to be this May. I didnt see the switch to dry sunny and warm since the 10th coming at all.

[Don]

6 hours ago, Frigid said:

Looks like my 12.3 will be too low, oh well. @Donit's looking good for you! 

Yes, very pleased with temperature, just a shame my EWP is somewhat off but hey ho!

[Dancerwithwings]

4 minutes ago, Don said:

Yes, very pleased with temperature, just a shame my EWP is somewhat off but hey ho!

A good month for me, if we do get 12.4c, I’ll be only 0.1c and 1mm out

If it was 12.3c …..1st and 1st for me …..so close but so far

 

[Roger J Smith]

EWP ranks are dependent on values reported next Monday 5 June, could be a few small adjustments made to EWP ranks but not going to adjust until final numbers posted. 42 mm (Mapantz) will be first EWP if value is below 43.5 mm. 

[Don]

2 hours ago, Dancerwithwings said:

A good month for me, if we do get 12.4c, I’ll be only 0.1c and 1mm out

If it was 12.3c …..1st and 1st for me …..so close but so far

 

Very good indeed! 

[Relativistic]

Confirmed as 12.5C in v2.0.1.0:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/meantemp_monthly_totals.txt

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/meantemp_ranked_monthly.txt

Edited June 1, 2023 by Relativistic

[damianslaw]

A warm May but not especially so, a bit above the 91-20 average.

[Don]

2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

A warm May but not especially so, a bit above the 91-20 average.

Would have been considered a warmer May, 20 years ago!

Edited June 1, 2023 by Don

[Roger J Smith]

Result of 12.5 confirms CET-EWP combined scoring table already posted. CET scoring becomes official later as confirmed by J10. 

[Roger J Smith]

EWP added tiny amounts to become 43.7 mm after 30d, could be 43.8 by 31st but in any case will wait until 5 June table value posted to edit EWP scoring already posted well back in discussion (and summarized in combined CET-EWP table above). 

[Don]

6 hours ago, Relativistic said:

Confirmed as 12.5C in v2.0.1.0:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/meantemp_monthly_totals.txt

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/meantemp_ranked_monthly.txt

May 2020 also came in at 12.5C.  Hopefully June 2022 will follow suit and also have the same CET as in 2020..... 

[Frigid]

Spring CET at 9.4C. 34th warmest spring in the CET Record, pretty standard these days. Similar CETs include 2018 and 2019, both at 9.4C.

Strange really, this spring was completely devoid of any substantial warmth. Just constant mildness allowed it to be relatively high. 

[Roger J Smith]

EWP tracker did finish on 43.7 mm. Next adjustment of EWP scoring on 5th when table values posted. 

Spring EWP total provisionally now 258.0 mm which would rank 17th wettest, very similar to 2018 at 15th (258.4) and also 1843 (258.3 mm). 2008 and 1986 were just below the 2023 mark, and 2000 is the only other recent year with a higher spring total, before that the most recent wetter spring was 1981. 

[J10]

Excel May 2023 CET.xlsx

Summary PDF May 2023 Summary.pdf

Summary PDF Overall May 2023 Summary Overall.pdf

Monthly

5 players got it spot on.
Methuselah,  Weather Observer, Catbrainz, Don and Metwatch  

In total 41 were within 0.5c.

Seasonal

Not that much change with

Leo97t winning (1st last month), rwtwm 2nd (from 3rd) and The PIT 3rd (from 4th)

Overall

Not that much change with

Leo97t staying in the lead, DR(S)NO 2nd (from 4th) and The PIT staying 3rd.

Leo97t has every forecsast within 0.3c so far this year.

Edited June 3, 2023 by J10

[Roger J Smith]

Well Leo97t is also leading the EWP annual contest. 

 

EWP scoring -- confirmed for 43.5 mm in May (5 June table value)

 

Rank (prev) _ Forecaster ___ Points ___ Avg error ____ May fcst, result (rank) _______ Spring total points (rank)

 

 1. (2) Leo97t _______________42.45 ____ 23.75 (2) _____ 19th (60 mm) ___________________22.86 (3)            

 2. (3) bobd29 ______________40.54 ____ 26.19 (3) ______29th (65.3 mm) _________________16.57 (15)

 3. (7) snowray _____________40.21 ____ 26.50 (5) _____ 16th (59 mm) ___________________ 22.04 (5) 

 4. (9) Reef _________________ 38.94 ____ 27.58 (6) _____ 20th (61.6 mm) _________________ 22.20 (4)

 5. (1) February1978 _______ 38.59 ____ 28.75 (8) _____ 41st (77 mm) ___________________ 14.48 (24)    

 6. (8) Dr(S)No ______________38.33 ____ 29.02 (9) _____ 26th (65 mm 2nd ent) __________ 17.57 (12)

 7. (15) Emmett Garland ___ 38.13 ____ 29.48 (11) ____ 13th (53 mm) ___________________16.18 (19)

 8. (18) jonboy _____________ 37.69 ____ 29.78 (15) ____ 10th (49 mm, 1d late) __________ 18.93 (9) 

 9. (20) Weather Observer _ 37.50 ____ 30.24 (16) _____ 7th (48 mm) ___________________ 19.06 (8)

10. (5) Mulzy ________________37.21 ____ 28.32 (7) _____ 38th (74 mm) __________________ 13.53 (32)    

11. (16) Feb1991Blizzard ___ 36.98 ____ 29.65 (14) ____ 17th (59 mm, 2nd ent) _________16.45 (16)

12. (10) _prolongedSnowLover _36.95 ____ 26.30 (4) _____ 30th  (67 mm) __________________16.96 (14)

13. (4) Jeff C _________________36.88 ____ 31.82 (18) ____ 47th (85 mm) __________________ 18.42 (10)

14. (23) Mapantz ____________36.34 ____ 31.48 (17) _____t-1st (42 mm) __________________ 23.86 (2)

15. (6) Stationary Front _____ 35.30 ____29.62 (t12) ____ 45th (83 mm) __________________19.13 (7)

16. (27) Summer Shower (5/6) _ 34.24 ____ 29.62 (t12) ____ 4th (46 mm) __________________ 24.43 (1)

17. (17) seaside60 __________ 33.84 ____ 35.52 (32) ____ 34th (70 mm 3rd ent) __________ 13.24 (t34) 

18. (11) Midlands Ice Age ___ 33.73 ____ 34.12 (17) ____ 49th (85 mm, 3rd ent) _________ 15.23 (21) 

19. (14) DiagonalRedLine ___ 33.52 ____ 33.52 (23) ____ 42nd (10 mm) __________________13.95 (31)

20. (25) Polar Gael __________ 33.41 ____ 34.00 (25) _____ 9th (49.1 mm) _________________17.20 (13)

21. (34) dancerwithwings___ 33.35 ____ 34.45 (37) _____ t1st (45 mm) ___________________20.38 (6) 

22. (13) virtualsphere ______ 33.16 ____ 34.28 (27) _____ 43rd (81 mm) __________________ 16.19 (18)

23. (12) freeze (5/6) ________ 31.95 ____ 31.92 (19) _____ no fcst _________________________ 16.39 (17) (2 of 3) 

24. (21) summer8906 (5/6) _ 31.44 ____ 21.34 ( 1) _____ 33rd (70 mm, 2nd ent) _________ 12.82 (38) (2 of 3)                    

25. (19) Norrance __________ 30.52 ____ 34.45 (t28) ____ 48th (85 mm, 2nd ent) __________ 9.57 (47)

26. (26) J10 _________________ 30.30 ____ 32.48 (20) _____ 28th (65 mm, 4th) _____________ 14.34 (26)

27. (36) Wold Topper _______29.82 ____ 33.62 (30) _____ 18th (58 mm, 1d late) __________17.76 (11)

28. (31) Methuselah ________ 29.81 ____ 36.98 (37) _____ 25th (65 mm) __________________14.37 (25)

29. (35) daniel* _____________29.44 ____ 36.75 (35) ______22nd (63 mm) _________________ 14.52 (23)

30. (32) summer18 _________ 27.62 ____ 35.65 (33) _____ 36th (72 mm) __________________15.26 (20)     

31. (29) Roger J Smith ______ 27.39 ____ 34.57 (30) _____ 40th (75.9 mm) __________________8.34 (53)            

32. (22) Don ________________ 26.91 ____ 35.82 (34) _____ 55th (100 mm) _________________14.12 (29)

33. (24) cymro (4/6) _________26.11 ____ 36.88 (36) ____ no fcst _ _ _ _ _ ___________________ 1.77 (62) (1 of 3)

34. (39) Weather26 (5/6) ____25.77 ____ 29.22 (10) _____ 37th (73 mm) __________________ 12.20 (39) (2 of 3) 

35. (28) davehsug __________ 25.57 ____ 37.82 (39) _____ 51st (87 mm) ___________________ 12.96 (36) 

36. (30) Godber1 ____________24.90 ____ 39.32 (43) _____ 53rd (92 mm)  __________________ 11.14 (42) 

37. (33) I Rem Atl 252 (5/6) _ 24.64 ____ 33.48 (22) _____ 52nd (90 mm) ___________________14.74 (22) 

38. (38) noname_weather __ 24.56 ____ 38.82 (40) _____ 44th (78 mm, 1d late) ____________ 8.87 (51)

39. (50) summer blizzard ___ 23.98 ____ 41.42 (t45) _____ 5th (41 mm) ___________________ 14.21 (30)

40. (48) The PIT _____________ 23.83 ____ 41.42 (t45) ____ 11th (50 mm) ___________________13.24 (t34) 

41. (37) syed2878 __________ 23.07 ____ 44.45 (52) _____ 54th (95 mm) ___________________ 13.45 (33)  

42. (45) SLEETY _____________ 23.02 ____ 39.25 (42) _____ 24th (63 mm, 2nd ent, 1d late) __ 10.97 (43)       

43. (42) rwtwm _____________ 22.75 ____ 42.15 (49) _____ 35th (71 mm) ____________________12.91 (37)        

44. (41) Mr Maunder ________20.96 ____ 41.98 (48) _____ 50th (85 mm, 4th ent) ___________11.23 (41)

45. (40) stewfox (4/6) _______ 20.27 ____ 33.68 (24) _____ no fcst ___________________________12.01 (40) (2 of 3)                        1

46. (51) shillitocettwo ______ 20.18 ____ 49.62 (55) _____ 23rd (64 mm) _____________________ 8.53 (52) 

47. (44) SteveB ______________19.82 ____ 44.68 (53) _____ 46th (84 mm)  _____________________4.47 (59)

48. (49) Moorlander ________ 19.37 ____ 46.48 (54) _____ 32nd (70 mm) ____________________10.90 (44)

49. (43) BlastFromThePast (4/6) _18.63 ___ 44.13 (51) _____ no fcst _ _ _ _ _ ____________________ 5.02 (58) (1 of 3)

50. (46) Frigid ________________17.14 ____ 53.18 (58) _____ 56th (120 mm) ____________________14.15 (28)

51. (47) Thundery Wintry Shwr (4)_17.04 __ 32.58 (21) ____ no fcst _______________________________0.54 (65) (1 of 3) 

52. (54) Kirkcaldy Weather (4/6) _16.04 ____ 51.70 (57) _____ 39th (75.4 mm) ___________________ 9.11 (50) (2 of 3)

53. (57t) Neil N (5/6) _________15.08 ____ 43.37 (51) _____ 15th (55 mm) ____________________ 14.24 (27) (2 of 3)

54. (52) Let It Snow! (3/5) ___ 14.06 ____ 51.47 (56) _____ no fcst _ _ _ _ _ ______________________3.89 (60) (1 of 3) 

55. (68) catbrainz (3/6) _______13.94 ____ 41.50 (47) _____ 8th (48 mm, 2nd ent) _____________ 9.14 (48) (2 of 3)

56. (53) Earthshine (4/6) _____13.31 _____ 37.31 (38) _____ no fcst ____________________________ 2.26 (61) (2 of 3)

57. (57t) chilly milly __________12.14 _____ 60.03 (59) _____ 31st (69 mm) ____________________ 10.83 (45)

59. (76) sunny_vale (3/6) _____10.80 _____ 39.13 (41) _____ 14th (54 mm) _____________________7.80 (55) (2 of 3)

62. (---) Coventry Weather (1/6) _ 9.90 ______ 1.50 (---) ______ 3rd (45 mm, 2nd ent) ____________ 9.90 (46) (1 of 3)

63. (---) Thomas Green (1/6) __ 9.10 ______ 2.70 (---) ______ 6th (46.2 mm) ____________________ 9.10 (49) (1 of 3)

64. (74) Metwatch (5/6) _______ 9.11 _____ 39.87 (44) _____ 27th (65 mm 3rd ent) ____________ 7.44 (56)   

66. (---) B87 (1/6) _______________8.02 ______8.50 (---) _____ 12th (35 mm) _____________________ 8.02 (54) (1 of 3)

71. (---) snowsummer (1/6) ____ 6.40 _____18.50 (---) _____ 21st (25 mm) _____________________ 6.40 (57) (1 of 3)

83. (81) Pegg24 (2/6) ___________2.16 _____81.40 (---) _____ no fcst ____________________________ 0.64 (64) (1 of 3)

84. (82) Plymsunshine (1/6) ___ 1.34 _____ 40.90 (---) _____ no fcst ____________________________1.34 (63) (1 of 3)

____________________________________________

 

2.7 (5.3) __ 1981-2010 average _42.77 ___ 23.08 ( 4.2) ___ rank 24.6, 63.6 mm _______________ 21.98 (3.6) rank

 6.6 (14.7)_ consensus _________ 40.71 ___ 28.53 (13.5) ___ rank t25, 65.0 mm ________________21.67 (5.0) rank

 9.4 (16.2) _1991-2020 average__38.39 ___ 24.80 ( 5.7) ___ rank 21.1, 62.7 mm _______________18.54 (13.0) rank

11.6 (20.3) _1993-2022 average _ 37.37 ___25.98 (11.0) ___ rank 29.8, 66.6 mm _____________ 17.34 (15.6) rank

=================================

(table includes all May entrants and some annual ranks are not present in table for anyone with only one or two forecasts not including spring months)

(table has been edited on 5th)

Edited June 5, 2023 by Roger J Smith