May 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Roger J Smith]

CET May averages and other statistics

___ table includes all CET values for the period 1981 to 2021 ... bold type, warmest third, italics middle third, underlined, coolest third of years ___

___ ___ all data now converted to v2.0 .... ties in ranks are for one decimal, table separates ranks by unseen second decimals ___ ___

 

21.2 ... warmest daily mean (29th, 1780)

20.0 ... 15th (1833) earliest 20.0 CET day.

15.1 ... warmest May (1833)

13.9 ... 2nd warmest May (1848)

13.8 ... t-3rd warmest Mays (1758, 1788)

13.7 ... 5th warmest May (1808)

13.6 ... t-6th warmest Mays (1727, 1992)

13.5 ... t-8th warmest Mays (1784, 1868, 1919, 1947)

13.4 ... t-12th warmest Mays 2008 (tied with 1726, 1952)

13.3 ... t-15th warmest Mays 1743, 1804, 1964, 2017, 2018

13.1 ... 1998, 2022

12.9 ... 1989, 1999

12.6 ... 1990, 2016, 2020

12.5 ... 2001

12.3 ... 2006, 2014

12.2 ... 2011

12.1 ... 2000, 2004, 2009 

12.0 ... 2003 ... ... highest 30-year average (1989-2018) and 2001-2022 average

11.9 ... 1991-2020 (& 1993-2022) averages and 1988, 2007 

11.8 ... 2002, 2012

11.7 ... 1981-2010 average 

11.6 ... 1982, 1995

11.5 ... 1993, 1997

11.4 ... ... 1901-2000 average

11.3 ... 2005 .. 1971-2000 average, 1701-1800 average

11.2 ... 1981, 2019 (also 1980) ... 1961-1990 average, 1659-2022 average of all data (11.24)

11.1 ... ... 1801-1900 average

11.0 ... 1986

10.9 ... 1985

10.8 ... 2015

10.7 ... 1991, 1994, 2010 ... 1659-1700 average

10.6 ... ... ... lowest 30-year average (1687-1716, to 1690-1719) _ also 10.65 (1873-1902)*

10.5 ... 2013

10.3 ... 1983, 2021

10.1 ... 1987

  9.9 ... 1984 (also 1979)

  9.2 ... 1996 tied 15th coldest with four other years, the coldest in recent years)

  9.1 ... 1756 and 1877 tied 13th coldest

  9.0 ... 1692,93,94,95 and 1782 tied 8th coldest

  8.9 ... 1879, 1885, 1902 tied 5th coldest

  8.8 ... 1855 was 4th coldest

  8.7 ... 1817 was 3rd coldest

  8.6 ... 1740 was 2nd coldest

  8.5 ... 1698 was coldest May

 

Extreme cold

 4.2 ... mean for 1-5 May, 1979 (4.4, 3.7, 4.7, 4.4, 3.9)

 3.5 .... mean for 3-5 May, 1877 (3.2, 3.2, 4.2)

 3.1 .... coldest daily mean (8th, 1861)

_____________________________________

* The secondary minimum came after two centuries of warmer Mays with 11.61 1820-49 the peak

Post your May CET forecasts before end of day Sunday 30th of April to avoid time penalty, or in first three days of May with increasing late penalties.

______________________________________

 

England and Wales precip (EWP) contest 

Note: this is verified against the Hadley version of EWP (1766 to present),  

The contest asks you to predict the average England and Wales precip in mm. These are the extreme values and recent averages. 

 

151.8 ___ max 1766-2022 (in 1773)

142.4 ___ second wettest in 1782 

140.7 ___ third wettest in 1967

122.7 ___ maximum 1981-2022 (in 2021) _ 118.4 in 2007 _ 115.2 in 1983

 66.6 ___ average 1993-2022

 64.2 ___ average 1766-2022 (all data)

 63.6 ___ average 1981-2010

 62.7 ___ average 1991-2020

 10.3 ___ minimum 1981-2022 (in 2020) _  (13.7 (1991) previous)

 07.9 ___ (min 1766-2022) in 1844 

 ________________________________________________________________

Recent ... 2022 _ 59.4 mm ... 2021 _122.7 mm ... 2020 _ 10.3 mm ...  2019 _ 46.0 mm ...  2018 _ 51.9 mm ...  2017 _ 65.0 mm ... 

2016 _ 61.7 mm ... 2015 _ 86.6 mm ...  2014 _ 102.8 mm ...  2013 _ 73.9 mm ...  2012 _ 57.4 mm ...  2011 _ 46.5 mm ...  2010 _ 38.3 mm ... ... 

Enter the EWP contest in the same post as your CET temperature forecast. Scores are by rank order out of 10.0, 0.3 penalties per day late. Same deadlines apply as CET contest. 

 

... Good luck in both contests ... 

 

[Bobd29]

12.2C and 65.3mm for me please.

[Relativistic]

Christ, imagine May 1996 four years in a row...

[Earthshine]

Placeholder guess: 11.7C

[Summer8906]

Not really the point of the thread but I'm amazed the rather cloudy and changeable May 2017 was as warm as the notably good May 2018. Presumably down to that common problem of recent summer months, unremarkable daytime temps but very mild nights caused by cloudy skies.

Also notable is the apparent lack of really, really warm Mays with temps >=2C above average.

Don't want to make a prediction yet other than I suspect it will be neither notably warm nor notably sunny - so this year will not be that really warm May.

Edited April 22, 2023 by Summer8906

[Frigid]

50 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

Not really the point of the thread but I'm amazed the rather cloudy and changeable May 2017 was as warm as the notably good May 2018. Presumably down to that common problem of recent summer months, unremarkable daytime temps but very mild nights caused by cloudy skies.

Also notable is the apparent lack of really, really warm Mays with temps >=2C above average.

Don't want to make a prediction yet other than I suspect it will be neither notably warm nor notably sunny - so this year will not be that really warm May.

Same with May 2020 and 2022, the latter being a half a degree warmer. You'd expect 2020 to be a warmer month given it's the sunniest on record but May 2022 was so dull it kept night-time mins high and max temps were quite low.. still I'll always see May 2020 as a warmer month. 

[BlueHedgehog074]

Being really optimistic, but 12*C and only 10mm of precipitation, please. 

[SummerShower]

1.2C and 46mm, not a bad May this year.  Changeable rather than unsettled, but we will see a week of 25C plus at the end of the month with a thundery late bank holiday.

[chilly milly]

11.0c and 69mm please

[snowsummer]

12.c and 25mm please 

[Don]

10 hours ago, SummerShower said:

1.2C and 46mm, not a bad May this year.  Changeable rather than unsettled, but we will see a week of 25C plus at the end of the month with a thundery late bank holiday.

Good lord, that would be an exceptional May and surely we would struggle to get a week of 25C plus during a month with a CET that low?! 

Edited April 22, 2023 by Don

[Dancerwithwings]

12.3c & 45mm ️cheers

[SummerShower]

19 hours ago, SummerShower said:

1.2C and 46mm, not a bad May this year.  Changeable rather than unsettled, but we will see a week of 25C plus at the end of the month with a thundery late bank holiday.

12.2c and 46mm, sorry  

[SteveB]

10.5c and 88mm please 

[Weather26]

11.2c And 73mm please.

[CoventryWeather]

Definitely thinking a very warm may is on offer, with a fairly thundery (showery) month too. Rainfall is likely to be very localised in my opinion.

13.4 and 45mm please!

[Shillitocettwo]

I'm going to go with one of my common extreme predictions. I reckon May will be noted for extreme contrast. A notable cold snap will strike for the Coronation and expect to see King Charles out in thick wet snow showers. However, a freak heatwave near the end of the month will see temperatures breaking May records in the low to mid 30.Cs.

 

  Overall the CET surprisingly academic at 12.4.C due to a very below average first 12 days. Precipitation 49mm, wetter first half.

[Polar Gael]

13.7°C and 49.1mm for me please.

[Sunny76]

On 22/04/2023 at 12:03, Frigid said:

Same with May 2020 and 2022, the latter being a half a degree warmer. You'd expect 2020 to be a warmer month given it's the sunniest on record but May 2022 was so dull it kept night-time mins high and max temps were quite low.. still I'll always see May 2020 as a warmer month. 

May 2018 and 2020 are my favourite months for long warm sunny spells. 

On 22/04/2023 at 12:44, SummerShower said:

1.2C and 46mm, not a bad May this year.  Changeable rather than unsettled, but we will see a week of 25C plus at the end of the month with a thundery late bank holiday.

That’s what I’m going for, but the hot spell will last for 7 days and top temps before the storms arrive will be 29c. The nights will start to warm up then.

[Thomas Green]

Going for a high pressure favoured May, not overly warm with easterlies continuing with a couple of unsettled spells mid month warming up considerably late in the month

12.4C 46.2mm please

[Earthshine]

On 22/04/2023 at 23:19, Don said:

Good lord, that would be an exceptional May and surely we would struggle to get a week of 25C plus during a month with a CET that low?! 

Apocalyptically cold!

[Leo97t]

11.8c and 70mm

[B87]

13.0c and 35mm

[Methuselah]

12.5C and 65mm please, Roger.

[The PIT]

I'm going for 12.2C and 50mm of rain.