May 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[February1978]

12.6c and 77mm please

Changeable first half, rain in south, warming up....

F78

[Roger J Smith]

 

Table of forecasts for May 2023

 

CET _ EWP _ Forecaster (order of entry) ___________________ CET _ EWP _ Forecaster (order of entry) _________________ 

14.0 _ 75.9 _ Roger J Smith ( 35 ) __________________________ 12,2 _ 65.3 _ Bobd29 ( 1 ) ________________________________

13.7 _ 49.1 _ Polar Gael (10 ) ________________________________12,2 _ 46.0 _ Summer Shower ( 4 ) _______________________

13.4 _ 45.0 _ Coventry Weather ( 9 ) _______________________ 12.2 _ 50.0 _ The PIT ( 14 ) ________________________________

13.3 _ --- --- _ Summer Sun (36 ) ____________________________12.2 _ --- --- _ Mark Bayley (28 ) ___________________________

13.0 _ 35.0 _ B87 (12 ) ______________________________________ 12.2 _ 67.0 _ prolongedSnowLover (53 ) __________________

13.0 _ 59.0 _ Feb1991Blizzard (50 ) _________________________12.2 _ 49.0 _ jonboy ( L1-2 ) ________________________________

13,0 _ 64.0 _ shillitocettwo (58 ) ____________________________ 12.1 _ 41.0 _ summer blizzard (16 ) _______________________ 

12.9 _ 70.0 _ seaside60 (45 ) ________________________________12.1 _ 61.6 _ Reef (40 ) ____________________________________

______________________________________________________________12.1 _ 58.0 _ Wold Topper ( L1-3 ) ________________________

______________________________________________________________12.1 _ --- --- _Quicksilver1989 ( L2-1 ) _____________________

12.9 _ 63.0 _ SLEETY ( L1-1 ) ______________________________ 12.0 _ 10.0 _ DiagonalRedLine ( 3 ) ____________________

12.8 _ 71.0 _ rwtwm (33 ) ___________________________________ 12.0 _ 25.0 _ snowsummer ( 6 ) __________________________

12,7 _ 83.0 _ Stationary Front (37 ) __________________________12.0 _ 65.0 _ J 10 (57 ) ____________________________________

12.7 _ --- --- _ Walsall Wood Snow (45 ) ______________________11.9 _ 59.0 _ snowray (15 ) ________________________________

12.6 _ 54.0 _ sunny_vale (20 ) _______________________________11.9 _ 72.0 _ summer18 ( 22 ) _____________________________

12.6 _ 84.0 _ Steve B (39 ) ___________________________________11.9 _ _ 85.0 _ Midlands Ice Age (44 ) ______________________

12.6 _ 85.0 _ Mr Maunder (48 ) _____________________________11.9 _ 62.7 _ average 1991-2020 ( _66.6 _ average 1993-2022) 

12.6 _ 77.0 _ February1978 (59 ) ___________________________ 11.8 _ 75.4 _ Kirkcaldy Weather (18 ) _______________________

12.5 _ 65.0 _ Methuselah (13 ) ____________________________11.8 _ 85.0 _ Jeff C (19 ) _____________________________________

12.5 _ 48.0 _ Weather Observer (32 ) _____________________11.8 _ 70.0 _ moorlander (25 ) ______________________________ 

12.5 _ 48.0 _ catbrainz (41 ) ______________________________11.8 _ 85.0 _ Norrance (38 ) __________________________________ 

12.5 _100.0_ Don (43 ) ___________________________________11.8 _ 42.0 _ Mapantz (42 ) ___________________________________  

12.5 _ 65.0 _ Metwatch (51 ) _______________________________ 11.7 _ --- --- _ Earthshine ( 2 ) _________________________________

12,4 _ 46.2 _ Thomas Green (11 ) ________________________ 11.7 _ 92.0 _ Godber1 (54 ) ________________________________

12.4 _ 65.0 _ DR(S)NO (21 ) ______________________________ 11.7 _ 63.6 _ average 1981-2010 _____________________________ 

12.4 _ 53.0 _ Emmett Garland (27 ) _____________________ 11.5 _ 90.0 _ I Remember Atlantic252 (49 ) __________________

12.4 _ 60.0 _ Leo97t (30 ) _______________________________ 11.4 _ 63.0 _ daniel* (52 ) ____________________________________

12.4 _ 74.0 _ Mulzy (47 ) ___________________________________ 11.3 _ --- --- _ Kentish Man (56 ) ____________________________ 

12,3 _ 45.0 _ dancerwithwings ( 7 ) ________________________ 11.2 _ 73.0 _ Weather26 ( 8 ) _________________________________

12.3 _ --- --- _ damianslaw (31 ) ____________________________ 11.2 _ 87.0 _ davehsug (55 ) _________________________________

12.3 _ --- --- _ Typhoon John (23 ) __________________________ 11,2 _ 64.2 _ average all data (CET 1659-2022, EWP 1766-2022) _______

12.3 _120.0_ Frigid (24 ) ___________________________________ 11.1 _ 55.0 _ Neil N (26 ) ________________________________________

12.3 _ 70.0 _ summer8906 (29 ) ___________________________ 11.0 _ 69.0 _ chilly milly ( 5 ) ______________________________

12.3 _ 78.0 _ noname_weather ( L1-4 ) _____________________10.5 _ 95.0 _ syed2878 (34 ) __________________________

12.25 _ 65.0 _ consensus __________________________________10.4 _ 81.0 _ virtualsphere (17 ) ______________________

59 on-time forecasts, plus four late by one day, and one late by two days

-- 64 in total -- consensus (median) 12.25

============================ [*] ========================== 

EWP forecasts in order

120_Frig .. 100_Don .. 95_syed .. 92_godb .. 90_I rem .. 87_dave .. 85_Jeff, Norr, MIA, MrM .. 84_Ste .. 83_SF .. 81_virt ..

 78_non^ .. 77_Feb78 .. 75.9_RJS .. 75.4_KW .. 74_Mul .. 73_wx26 .. 72_sum18 .. 71_rwtwm .. 70_moor,sum8906,sea .. 69_cm ..

 67_pSL .. 66.6_93-22 .. 65.3_bobd .. 65_Meth,DR(S), Met, J10 .. 64.2_all data .. 64_shil .. 63.6_81-10 ..63_dan*,SLE^.. 62.7_91-20 ..

 61.6_Reef .. 60_leo .. 59_snowray, Feb91 ..  58_WT^.. 55_NN .. 53_EG .. 54_sv .. 50_PIT .. 49.1_PG .. 49_jon^ .. 48_WxObs, cat ..

 46.2_TGreen .. 46_SumSh .. 45_dww, Covwx .. 42_Map .. 41_sb .. 35_B87 .. 25_snowsum .. 10_DRL

 

52 on-time forecasts, plus four so far marked as one day late ^ 56 total .. consensus (median) 65.0 mm

_______________________________________________

Welcome to new competitors Thomas Green and Coventry Weather, and various others who have joined in recently or maybe once or twice in the past also. 

<<< NOTE: LATE ENTRIES ACCEPTED TO END OF 3rd of MAY and will be added to table of entries >>>>

Edited May 14, 2023 by Roger J Smith
late symbol missing in EWP summary

[SLEETY]

impossible tp get a below average month anymore,even if winds blow from the North Pole for days on end.

 

12.9c 63mm Thanks

[Summer8906]

15 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

Good old Gambo. 
 

I tend to switch off if it’s years after 1995, for some reason I lose interest in the retro countdowns from 1996 onwards. 

I know what you mean, as the later part of the 90s tend to feature songs which enter the charts high and drop fast, and so are less well remembered and often with niche appeal. The classic chart pattern of enter low, gradually climb, and eventually peak - with most top 10 songs being well-remembered - had been lost.

However there were enough good songs in the 1996 countdown to make it worth a listen. The aforementioned "Children", and "A Design For Life", in particular, were classics of the era.

The 1985 countdown that preceded it, on the other hand - absolute classic. The music of 1985 was as good as the weather was often bad...

Edited May 1, 2023 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

impossible tp get a below average month anymore,even if winds blow from the North Pole for days on end.

 

12.9c 63mm Thanks

 

I'll take that. 63mm would be a blessed relief looking at what some of the models have been threatening in the past day or so...

[jonboy]

a late 12.2 and 49mm of rain

[Wold Topper]

Sorry, late this month, 12.1c and 58mm pls,

[noname_weather]

12.3C and 78mm.

Did you guys know that April has just 30 days? Sorry for late post.

[Roger J Smith]

1981-2010 CET May averages and extremes 1772-2022

All data now v2.0

 

DATE ____ AVG __ CUM AVG _______ MAX yr ___ MIN yr _______ Running CET extremes

___ 01 ___ 10.8 ___ 10.8 ________16.0 1990,2005 _ 4.2 1945 ____ 16.0 1990,2005_ 4.2 1945

___ 02 ___ 10.4 ___ 10.6 __________ 16.4 1966 __ 3.8 1979 _____ 15.9 1966 ___ 4.1 1979

___ 03 ___ 10.5 ___ 10.6 __________ 17.6 1990 __ 3.2 1877 _____ 16.4 1990 ___ 4.3 1979

___ 04 ___ 10.3 ___ 10.5 __________ 18.0 1834 __ 3.2 1877 _____ 16.7 1990 ___ 4.3 1979

___ 05 ___ 10.6 ___ 10.5 __________ 16.7 1800 __ 3.9 1979 _____ 16.4 1990 ___ 4.2 1979

___ 06 ___ 11.0 ___ 10.6 __________ 18.6 1867 __ 4.4 1831 _____ 15.9 1990 ___ 4.5  1979

___ 07 ___ 11.0 ___ 10.7 __________ 17.0 2018 __ 3.8 1879 _____ 15.2 1990 ___ 5.0  1979 (5.1 1782, 1877)

___ 08 ___ 10.9 ___ 10.7 __________ 17.7 2016 __ 3.1 1861 _____ 14.7 1995 ___ 5.2 1782

___ 09 ___ 10.6 ___ 10.7 _______ 17.6 1945,2016 _ 5.1 1910 ___ 14.7 1800 ___ 5.6 1782

___ 10 ___ 10.8 ___ 10.8 __________ 18.2 1959 __ 4.2 1879  ____ 14.7 2008 ___ 6.0 1782

___ 11 ___ 11.1 ___ 10.8 __________ 18.7 2008 __ 4.1 1773  ____ 15.1 2008 ___ 6.2 1879

___ 12 ___ 11.3 ___ 10.8 __________ 18.8 1945 __ 4.4 1816  ____ 15.2 2008 ___ 6.6 1782, 1879

___ 13 ___ 11.6 ___ 10.9 __________ 17.4 1959 __ 5.1 1855  _____ 15.1 2008 ___ 6.7 1879

___ 14 ___ 11.7 ___ 10.9 __________ 18.8 1992 __ 3.9 1839  _____ 14.9 2008 ___ 6.7 1902

___ 15 ___ 11.7 ___ 11.0 __________ 20.0 1833 __ 4.3 1839  _____ 14.9 1833 ___ 6.8 1902

___ 16 ___ 11.4 ___ 11.0 __________ 20.0 1808 __ 5.2 1996  _____ 15.2 1833 ___ 6.9 1902

___ 17 ___ 11.3 ___ 11.0 __________ 19.7 1833 __ 3.6 1935  _____ 15.4 1833 ___ 7.1 1855, 1902

___ 18 ___ 11.4 ___ 11.0 __________ 19.0 1952 __ 4.2 1872  _____ 15.4 1833 ___ 7.2 1855, 1902, 1996

___ 19 ___ 11.8 ___ 11.1 __________ 20.3 1868 __ 5.3 1872  _____ 15.4 1833 ___ 7.2 1902, 1996

___ 20 ___ 12.3 ___ 11.1 __________ 17.7 1916 __ 5.8 1894  _____ 15.4 1833 ___ 7.2 1902

___ 21 ___ 12.1 ___ 11.2 __________ 18.8 1918 __ 5.7 1894  _____ 15.4 1833 ___ 7.3 1902

___ 22 ___ 12.2 ___ 11.2 __________ 19.6 1918 __ 5.1 1867  _____ 15.4 1833 ___ 7.3 1902

___ 23 ___ 12.8 ___ 11.3 __________ 19.5 1922 __ 5.0 1867  _____ 15.5 1833 ___ 7.6 1902

___ 24 ___ 13.3 ___ 11.4 __________ 18.8 1953 __ 5.7 1867  _____ 15.5 1833 ___ 7.9 1902

___ 25 ___ 12.4 ___ 11.4 __________ 20.9 1953 __ 6.5 1814  _____ 15.6 1833 ___ 8.0 1885

___ 26 ___ 12.4 ___ 11.5 ________18.7 1784,2017__4.6 1821_____ 15.5 1833 ___ 8.1 1782, 1885

___ 27 ___ 12.1 ___ 11.5 __________ 19.0 1788 __ 6.6 1984  _____ 15.4 1833 ___ 8.25 1782

___ 28 ___ 12.3 ___ 11.5 __________ 20.6 1847 __ 6.3 1869  _____ 15.3 1833 ___ 8.5 1782, 1885, 1996

___ 29 ___ 12.8 ___ 11.6 __________ 21.2 1780 __ 6.3 1869 _____ 15.2 1833 ___ 8.7 1782,1879,1902,1996

___ 30 ___ 13.0 ___ 11.6 __________ 21.0 1944 __ 4.9 1807 _____ 15.1 1833 ___ 8.7 1817, 1902

___ 31 ___ 13.3 ___ 11.7 __________ 20.5 1947 __ 6.4 1802  _____ 15.1 1833 ___ 8.7 1817#

# 8.7 was lowest during daily data period but 1698 finished on 8.5 and 1740 on 8.6, these could have had lower running CET values at various points before 31st as well. 

___________________________________________________________________________

1991-2020 daily and cumulative CET values 

date _ mean __ cum ____ date _ mean __ cum ______ date _ mean __ cum ___ date _ mean _ cum

01 ___10.5 ___10.5 _____ 11 ___11.3 ___ 11.0 _____ 21 ___12.6 ___11.3 ____ 31 ___ 13.7 __ 11.9

02 ___10.5 ___10.5 _____ 12 ___11.3 ___ 11.0 _____ 22 ___12.8 ___11.4 ____

03 ___10.4 ___10.5 _____ 13 ___11.4 ___ 11.0 _____ 23 ___13.0 ___11.5 ____

04 ___10.2 ___10.4 _____ 14 ___11.4 ___ 11.1 _____ 24 ___13.5 ___11.6 ____

05 ___10.7 ___10.5 _____ 15 ___11.3 ___ 11.1 _____ 25 ___12.8 ___11.6 ____

06 ___11.2 ___10.6 _____ 16 ___11.4 ___ 11.1 _____ 26 ___13.0 ___11.6 ____

07 ___11.7 ___10.7 _____ 17 ___11.4 ___ 11.1 _____ 27 ___13.1 ___11.7 ____

08 ___11.5 ___10.8 _____ 18 ___11.7 ___ 11.1 _____ 28 ___13.2 ___11.8 ____

09 ___11.3 ___10.9 _____ 19 ___12.2 ___ 11.2 _____ 29 ___13.2 ___11.8 ____

10 ___11.4 ___10.9 _____ 20 ___12.5 ___ 11.2 _____ 30 ___13.5 ___ 11.9 ____

__________________________

[Shillitocettwo]

It's insane that the top 5 May's were all pre 1850, it's one of those months climate change has yet to topple, although one gets the feeling when it does it could be obliterated December 2015 style!

[Derecho]

Late entry but I'll go for 12.1C

[Relativistic]

2 hours ago, Shillitocettwo said:

It's insane that the top 5 May's were all pre 1850, it's one of those months climate change has yet to topple, although one gets the feeling when it does it could be obliterated December 2015 style!

The current record is already a December 2015 though. Even in a warming world May 1833 will be difficult (not impossible) to beat.

Edited May 2, 2023 by Relativistic

[Summer Sun]

12.7c to the 1st

1.5c above the 61 to 90 average
1.9c above the 81 to 10 average

[Roger J Smith]

12 hours ago, Shillitocettwo said:

It's insane that the top 5 May's were all pre 1850, it's one of those months climate change has yet to topple, although one gets the feeling when it does it could be obliterated December 2015 style!

There is quite a gap between 1833 (15.1) and 1848 (13.9) and you would think the warmer climate regime should be able to fill that gap within a decade or two, as to overtaking 1833, that could take longer. And note from my table above that 1833 reached 15.6 by 25th. It was never very warm in April 1833. 

I associate this unusual frequency of warm months with the benchmark warm daily records from the end of April, 1775. 

Noting also that nine of the top eleven Mays are 1919 or before, June is equal with nine of eleven from 1858 or before. The next month to reach nine warm months in its rankings is December where it takes 14 tries to reach 1898 or before, and in January it takes 16 tries to reach 1916 or before, although only 15 to reach 1921 or before and five of warmest six Januaries are 1921 and before. For October one has to go back to 31st warmest to reach nine from 1908 or before. 

[summer blizzard]

I think that April 07/11 show us it is possible. Both beat previous records by some margin. 

I guess the question is how close to prior running records those months got or whether any had a running mean higher. A quick reveals the running mean was actually as high as 13.4C in a previous April so i suppose its theoretically possible to be even breach 07/11. 

I would suggest the records in the warmer season are a little less threatened often because of amplitude. April-August seem to have records not much more than about 3C above the 1991-2020 mean while i believe the winter months tend to have higher amplitude departures.

 

[Roger J Smith]

Following up on the discussion about venerable warmth records, here's a graphical format showing how far back the top 30 extend for each month. I have simplified this a bit by ignoring any form of ties and taking the v2.0 ranks as they appear. The first few decades are compressed into one grouping 1659 to 1710 after which the graph has equal spacing for decades ending 1720, 1730 etc. 

Numbers in the graphic give ranks of each month (see left side of graphic). An x means that no top-30 ranked month fell in that decade. 1659-1710 has decade columns for 1659-70, 1671-80, 1681-1690, 1691-1700, 1701-1710. Very few entries in that compressed portion of the graphic. 

Where more than one year in a decade is in the top 30, those years are listed in chronological order with commas used; decades are separated by a __ symbol and as mentioned, decades without entries have an "x" instead. 

Larger separations occur after each century. 

 

_________ Decades ending with years shown ____________________

________________________ 1700s ________________________________ 1800s _______________________________ 1900s _____________________________ 2000s

__ __ / 1659-1710 ____ 20_ 30 _ 40 _50_ 60_70_ 80_90_ 00 ___ 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 ___ 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 _80_ _90_ _00__ ___ 10__ 20 __(21-23)

Month

_JAN___ xx21,11x22 __ x _ x _ 6,15,19_ x_24 _ x _ x _ x _ 2 ____ 28 _ x_ x _ 4_17_ x_30_16_13_10____x_1_3_18_29_x_x_25,7,26_8,20,12_27___23,5,9 __ 14 __ x 

_FEB___ x x x __ x 18 __ x _x _29,28,15_17_x_ x _ 1 _ 20_ 5 ____ x_22,30_27_x_ x_ x_12,2_11_x_x ___7_16,23_14_x_6_x __ 13_ x _ 3 __25,19,4___ 8 _21,10,26_9,24 

_MAR___x x x __x x ___ x _ 27__ 10 ____ 9 _ x_ x_13,12_ x_x ____ x _ x_19,20_x_25_x_ x _ x _ x _ x ___ x _x_30_ 2_15,6_1_8_x_16,28,7_17,29,22,4,18,24___23,26_5,21,3,14_11 

_APR___ x x x __x x ___ x _ x _17,25__ x _20_18_26_16_22,12,11,6 ___ x_x_x_30_27_ x_3,13_28_x_8 ___ x_29_x _x _5,10,14,24,21_x_19_x_9_x ____ 2,15 _1,7,23,4 _ x 

_MAY___ x x 26_x x ___ x_ 14,6 _ x __ 18 _ 3 _ 30_ x _ 8,4_ x ____16,5,21_x_ x _1,24_ 2_ x_11_ x_ x_20___ x_25,10_x_x_ 9_13_17,27_x_28_7,23,29 ____12 _ 19,15 _ 22 

_JUN ___ x x 23_ x24 __ x _11,10_27_ x _ x _ 4 _18,8_14,22,20_6 ___19_ 9 _3,2_x_1_30,7_ x _ x_ x_16 ___ x _ x _ x _13_15 _17 __12 __ 5 __ x _ x ____ 26,28,29 __ 25,21_ x 

_JUL ___ 26 27 x_x 15__24,25_ x _ 14_ x _11,18_ x _30_ 4 _ 22 ____10_ 16_ 29_ x _ x_5,13_12_ x_ x_ x  __ 23_19_ 7 _17_ x_ x _ x _ 6 _2,21 _ 28,8 _____ 1 ___ 9,3 __ 20

_AUG___x x x _ x 21 ___ x _ x _12_ 7 _ x _ x _27,19,20_26_ x  ____ 28 _ 22 _17_ x _ x _ 23_ x_29_30_24,11___x_ 8_x _18_ 5 _9 _x_ 4,15_ 25,14,10_ 1,2 ___ 6,16 _ 13_ 3 

_SEP___ x 24 x x 25 ___ x _ 2,12 _13 _17_8_ x _19,10 _ x _ 7 _____ x _ x _27,22_ x _ x _ x _ 4 _ x _ x _11,16 ___x _ x _14_30_29,3_23,28_18_ x _ x _ 9 ___ 15,1 __26,20,21,5_ 6 

_OCT___ x x x _ x x ___ x _ x ___ 15 ___ x _ x _ x _ 23 _ x _ 27 _____ x _14,17_ x _ 8 _ x _ x _ 22_ x _ x __ x ____21_x_6_x_19,25_20,9_10,2_28,26_30,24_7,29___ 1,3,4 _11,12,13,16 _ 18,5 

_NOV___ x x x x 30 ___ x _26,7__  x __ 6 __ x _ x _ x __ x __ x _____ x _ 9,3_ 12,24_ x _ x _ x _ x _ x _10_16 ____ x _19_ x_ 5,11_27_15,17_25_21_ x _1,23 ___ 20,29,28,13_2,14,4,22,18_8 

_DEC___ x x 27 x 6 ____ x _ x ___ 5 __ x __ x __ x __ x _ x _ 25 ____ 22_ x_17,7_18_12,8_4,10_29,14_x_x_11,13___x _24,16_28,21_ 2_23_15,20_ x_26,3_ 9_ x____ 30 _ 1,19 _  x 

 

 Summary of top 30 months in each decade (last entry 2021-23 is only 23% complete).

1659 to 1710 _______ 1711 to 1800 _____________ 1801 to 1900 _______________ 1901 to 2000 _______________ 2001 to 2023

(Total) _1 2 5 0 8 ___ 2 9 15 6 6 3 13 9 11 ____ 8 9 13 6 7 7 11 4 3 11 ____ 3 11 8 9 18 12 10 12 17 22 ____ 25 34 10

The number of top 30 months in each decade has generally been rising although the 1730s (15) and 1770s, 1820s (13) were not topped until the 1940s (18), with further increases in the 1990s (22) and in this century (the current decade is on the same pace as the previous decade). 

 

Edited May 3, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[Summer Sun]

11.9c to the 2nd

0.8c above the 61 to 90 average
1.3c above the 81 to 10 average

[Relativistic]

16 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

I would suggest the records in the warmer season are a little less threatened often because of amplitude. April-August seem to have records not much more than about 3C above the 1991-2020 mean while i believe the winter months tend to have higher amplitude departures.

Yes.

On the difference in amplitude, May 1833 is more extreme by standard deviations from the mean than December 2015 is, despite their respective differences from second place being 1.2°C and 1.6°C (on legacy; not sure what's going on with current at the moment).

[Summer Sun]

11.2c to the 3rd

Bang on the 61 to 90 average
0.6c above the 81 to 10 average

[Frigid]

Noticed the running 61-90 average is higher than 81-10 for May so far. Is there any other instance where this happens? 

[Derecho]

19 hours ago, Frigid said:

Noticed the running 61-90 average is higher than 81-10 for May so far. Is there any other instance where this happens? 

I think the 61-90 anomaly is with respect to the end of month mean which is 11.2C

[Summer Sun]

11.2c to the 4th

Bang on the 61 to 90 average
0.7c above the 81 to 10 average

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

I think the 61-90 anomaly is with respect to the end of month mean which is 11.2C

Would be helpful for this to be explained. A little confusing... assume the 61-90 running mean is a fair bit lower than this.

I prefer to mark trajectory against the end of month mean, as running means fluctuate and its hard to measure progress against them. In the summer and winter months there is minimal variance in running means anyway compared to the warming spring and cooling autumn months. Overall May has got off to a slightly above average start and this looks set to continue with no notable warm weather ahead, nor anything cooler than average.

Edited May 5, 2023 by damianslaw

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 11.8C +2.6C above average. Rainfall 6.4mm 10.7% of the monthly average.

A surprisingly warm start to May considering we still haven't recorded 20C.

 

There's something odd about the Met CET figures the end of month average should be close to the first day of the month average. So if the average value say for April is 12C say plus +2C above average and then May 1st average is 12C then the difference from average should be the same but the few times I've looked it doesn't seem to be the case. 

[Scorcher]

It's going to be a surprisingly warm first half of the month given the lack of high temps.

The last few nights have been surprisingly warm here- I don't usually associate May with warm nights.